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NNE Winter Thread

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
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Classic blocked flow yesterday and last night...

 

RT 100 corridor on the east side with only 0.5-1.1" of snowfall, while the west slope communities had 3+.  As usual, J.Spin on the Spine/county line was just far enough west to get the better snows...literally the perfect spot for getting in on both east and west side events.  J.Spin, it still boggles my mind how you just happened to land yourself there, with real no understanding of the implications at the time.  Had you purchased a house like 3 miles in either direction it would've had decent changes to your overall climate averages.

 

attachicon.gifGetMap.aspx.gif

 

It's funny, but each year I gain a better perspective on the comment my neighbor said about how we live in a "snowy neighborhood".  I thought it was an interesting way to put it at the time he told me that, and he could have meant a rather large area of town or something (especially since it's not as if our neighborhood is isolated on a huge hill by itself), but based on your comment above, you can see where he was going with the way he stated it; as you start to travel to the east (into town) or west (Bolton Flats) a couple miles, the snowfall just tends to be somewhat less.  And, the fact that our neighborhood is also quite sheltered from the wind only enhances the effect of letting the snow pile up instead of getting blown away.  You're right that we were oblivious to these nuances when picking that spot to live.  While checking out the area, it was exciting to find out that we would be just a couple of miles from the Bolton Valley Access Road though.

 

While we're on the topic of climate, I'll add some related updates.  For our location, seasonal snowfall is running about a foot ahead of average as of today.  The season is certainly still running with the top dogs like 2007-2008 (65.3" as of this date) and 2008-2009 (45.8" as of this date) but it has slipped to position #3 as of today.  As I mentioned a couple of days ago, December itself is pretty much right on track for average with respect to snow – mean December snowfall through today is 20.9", and current December snowfall is 21.9" as of this morning.

 

This month's snowfall could easily fall behind average pace depending on what comes out of this current system though.  I'm seeing some talk about the potential upslope snow in this thread, but Roger Hill didn't say much about it this morning, and there's not much mention in the BTV NWS forecast discussion.  The do mention the potential for 1-3" though, so that may be what they're thinking:   

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

 

I'm seeing lots of panels with precipitation in them on the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM, right out to Friday morning though, so the models are suggesting that there's potential snow around.

 

There's also the possible Sunday event; that's still a few days away, but Roger Hill was thinking something in the 1-3" range as of this morning's broadcast.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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Just booked Thur Evening there (Bolton)  ,thou I will be arriving to the mountain around 10 am Thursday. (prob use my 29$ pre xmas Life ticket)

 

http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf   BTV WRF lights up the spine

 

Nice, it's always great to see some Bolton Valley patronage.  We were up there for a couple of hours on Sunday and the snow was fantastic.  My older son measured a snow depth of 28" at ~3,000', and that was just the loose snow, so there may have been more base depth below that.  I've added a few pictures from the outing below, and the full report is at our website.

 

14DEC14H.jpg

 

14DEC14B.jpg

 

14DEC14F.jpg

 

Boy, I like the look of that BTV WRF projection – it looks like 1.44" of liquid right over Bolton Mountain through 1:00 PM Friday:

 

17DEC14A.jpg

 

It certainly looks like something will be needed to freshen up those surfaces though – I'm currently seeing 32 F atop the Mansfield ridgeline at 3,950', and 34.4 F at 2,100' in the Bolton Valley Village, so the quality of the snow surfaces will likely have deteriorated at all elevations once the temperatures come back down.

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Hitman

Hitman

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J Spin, i know you ADK and PF are the upslope experts.

When i look at the 12z gfs 18hr 850 mb winds (6Z tommorrow ) it does not show nw flow over northern greens, at what level is the nw flow required to get upslope in greens?

 

I'm no expert but this my the p&c for 3000' at lincoln peak

 

Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Windy, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph increasing to 27 to 32 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

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adk

adk

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I'm no expert but this my the p&c for 3000' at lincoln peak

 

Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Windy, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph increasing to 27 to 32 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

sounds about right. Don't be shocked for 4-6"

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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J Spin, i know you ADK and PF are the upslope experts.

 

When i look at the 12z gfs 18hr 850 mb winds (6Z tommorrow ) it does not show nw flow over northern greens, at what level is the nw flow required to get upslope in greens?

 

Maybe we could have PF run down his list of favorable upslope parameters like he's done in the past – I think you actually want that NW flow at multiple levels for the maximal effect, but I'm not sure which levels are most critical.  Other parameters to look for are that saturation of the atmosphere with moisture (90%+ I think), and then those dendrite growth temps with 850 mbar temperatures around -10 C.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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All snow at Sugarloaf today so far, 3-4 inches, and they have opened up Brackett Basin (earliest opening ever).

 

3-4" in Eustis too, 1.5" at Jackman an hour or so ago. I'm really on the fence here. I could easily go with a warning, or just say the snow is too prolonged and claim an advisory with 6-9" in 24 hours.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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I'm no expert but this my the p&c for 3000' at lincoln peak

 

Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Windy, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph increasing to 27 to 32 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

Actually, that got me checking my point forecast, and the computers are at least spitting out some intriguing numbers – our point forecast down at 500' in the valley sums to 3-7" over the next couple of days; in the Bolton Mountain area its 6-13", and the Mansfield point forecast for the period is 8-15":

  • Late Afternoon Snow showers likely. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 32. Northwest wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
  • Tonight Snow showers likely. Patchy fog before 11pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 23. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
  • Thursday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Wind chill values as low as zero. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
  • Thursday Night A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a northwest wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

We should get the afternoon BTV NWS forecast discussion soon, and we'll be able to see what the experts at the BTV NWS have to say about the potential.

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alex

alex

Posted
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BTV going 8-12" on the Spine by Friday morning...

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

How do you read this thing? The legend on the left shows the orange as being 8-12", but then it says Stowe 2.6, Lincoln 3, for areas that are clearly in the orange... What am I missing???

 

I'm a biochemist by education but boy meteorology is complicated. Even spelling it is complicated. :)

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adk

adk

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How do you read this thing? The legend on the left shows the orange as being 8-12", but then it says Stowe 2.6, Lincoln 3, for areas that are clearly in the orange... What am I missing???

 

I'm a biochemist by education but boy meteorology is complicated. Even spelling it is complicated. :)

Stowe is not Stowe. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Hopefully Bolton cashes in (which I think they will). As for the long range the Euro for Christmas is a disaster with a a 960's bomb north of Detroit on Christmas Eve.

The set up favors Bolton and Smuggs. What usually happens here is they'll have more snow lower down, while the east slope will have it more on the upper elevations, probably with a decent gradient.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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How do you read this thing? The legend on the left shows the orange as being 8-12", but then it says Stowe 2.6, Lincoln 3, for areas that are clearly in the orange... What am I missing???

I'm a biochemist by education but boy meteorology is complicated. Even spelling it is complicated. :)

That's the village locations. Very easy for the center of Stowe to get 2-3" while over the ridge gets 8-12". The village is 5 miles east of the mountain.

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eyewall

eyewall

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That's the village locations. Very easy for the center of Stowe to get 2-3" while over the ridge gets 8-12". The village is 5 miles east of the mountain.

 

 

The set up favors Bolton and Smuggs. What usually happens here is they'll have more snow lower down, while the east slope will have it more on the upper elevations, probably with a decent gradient.

I plan on hitting the slopes to enjoy itwhile I am off the next 2 days ahead of the disaster to come.

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alex

alex

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And I just checked the updated P&C for Bartlett...   :lmao: Too much eggnog???

 

 

  •  
  • Monday NightA 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.
  • TuesdayA 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
  • Tuesday NightA 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.
  • WednesdaySnow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37
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