adk Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Good luck everyone. I seem to recall that a vertically stacked low is good for upslope in the greens. How we looking with that aspect of this system? (I'm no good with the math/science thing but I know fluffy snow on top of a base layer is good for making turns) Depends on where the center of the low is. North and east is best. Overhead....can be tricky. YOu don't get the cross-barrier flow from N/W winds to result in uplift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 If you count all the 1-3" chances between tomorrow when the low cuts off and when it pulls out early friday am, I think something in the 16-18" range is very possible for the greens above 3000ft. That NWS forecast seems pretty reasonable. As for the most snow? I'd guess whiteface and the ADK ...these cut off lows are very good for the high elevation ADK. I'm just not feeling this one, hope I'm wrong. Hopefully we can pull 4-8" by tomorrow morning. I don't like how marginal this is at multiple levels...it's aloft and at the SFC, especially valleys. Right now I'm focusing on the next 24 hrs....that'll sort of give us an idea how the following 48 hrs could go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Did get 0.3" overnight with flurries falling. Enough to have to brush the car off, felt like it had some weight to it for such a small amount. Up at the mountain I'm now seeing that some heavy heavy riming was going on from 2,000ft and higher. Very white trees. Light snow falling when I left the house at 6 this morning. I89 north of Waterbury was already a mess with 4 cars off. There was a thin coating of ice with a few snow grains on my car this morning and some mist on the way in. I89 was clear from exit 6 to exit 8. Just got a call from a coworker saying he has been stuck on 89 south north of Waterbury for the last 30 minutes, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm just not feeling this one, hope I'm wrong. Hopefully we can pull 4-8" by tomorrow morning. I don't like how marginal this is at multiple levels...it's aloft and at the SFC, especially valleys. Right now I'm focusing on the next 24 hrs....that'll sort of give us an idea how the following 48 hrs could go. I think you get 4-8" overnight. I'm not in love either but there is a lot of moisture moving in and I don't see how that doesn't translate into at least 8" of slop by tomorrow mid-morning. NWS has makes no qualms about what it thinks: IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE BIG WINNERS FROM THE ENTIRE EVENT SHOULD BE THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE PERSISTENT ENE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLDER THERMAL PROGS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ALL SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT I WOULDN`T BE ALL SURPRISED THAT SOME FAVORED EASTERN SLOPES IN THE HIGH PEAKS MAY NEED A YARDSTICK TO MEASURE THE NEW SNOW AMOUNTS. TIME WILL TELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 My issue is the 925mb temps remain above freezing throughout on the latest RAP and HRRR runs. Maybe this turns into a 3,000ft+ paste and little below that? NWS was pretty funny in their update...you know they are seeing all the same things and can't really say for sure one way or another. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 630 AM EST TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH CURRENTT/TD TRENDS AS OF 600 AM. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSSTHE SLV TODAY BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION. REST OF FORECASTLARGELY UNCHANGED AND WE`RE MOVING INTO A WAIT AND SEE MODE OVERTHE NEXT 12 HOURS TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. YOU CAN SLICETHE CAKE A HUNDRED DIFFERENT WAYS AND COME UP WITH A HUNDREDDIFFERENT ANSWERS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 My issue is the 925mb temps remain above freezing throughout on the latest RAP and HRRR runs. Maybe this turns into a 3,000ft+ paste and little below that? NWS was pretty funny in their update...you know they are seeing all the same things and can't really say for sure one way or another. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM EST TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS AS OF 600 AM. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS THE SLV TODAY BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION. REST OF FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED AND WE`RE MOVING INTO A WAIT AND SEE MODE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. YOU CAN SLICE THE CAKE A HUNDRED DIFFERENT WAYS AND COME UP WITH A HUNDRED DIFFERENT ANSWERS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. wow talk about lack of confidence. hard one to forecast/nowcast. Was already freezing mist in PWM. No way we're getting 4-6" according to NWS' map. Be lucky to get 2" before the change over. Yep, Debbie Downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 wow talk about lack of confidence. hard one to forecast/nowcast. Was already freezing mist in PWM. No way we're getting 4-6" according to NWS' map. Be lucky to get 2" before the change over. Yep, Debbie Downer. This is going to be a nowcasting event. I dont think there's enough resolution on these models to pick up how much elevation and lattitude/longitude will play a role in the local outcomes. It's almost impossible to forecast this type of event before it happens with local specificity, especially up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.03" L.E. The first I heard of this morning's snow was when Roger Hill spoke about it in his early WDEV broadcast, and he even specifically mentioned the Waterbury area. He mentioned to watch out for that touch of snow and some related black ice in terms of driving. I found 0.6" of snow on the board with some light snow falling. Out on the roads, the covering of snow faded as I headed past Bolton Flats, and gradually improved to simply dry roads by the Richmond-Burlington area where the driving was fine. I haven’t seen any specific mention of this being a different system, so I'm rolling it in as the start of this upcoming event. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 27.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.0" The latest BTV NWS advisory and projected accumulations maps for the upcoming storm are shown below – it looks like there were just a couple tweaks to the advisory map, and there were some changes in the projected accumulations, although it seems to have remained pretty consistent in this area vs. the previous edition with that 10-14" shading. One thing that has changed dramatically is the projected accumulations in our point forecast now that additional periods are getting some numbers added to them. The summed range comes in at 11-23" through Thursday: Today Snow, mainly after noon. High near 32. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tonight Snow. Low around 30. North wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Sleet before 9am, then rain and sleet. High near 33. North wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 28. North wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thursday Snow showers before noon, then rain and snow showers likely between noon and 3pm, then snow showers likely after 3pm. High near 35. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. We'll have to see how it plays out of course – Roger Hill was definitely unsure about how much accumulation could be obtained in the lower valleys, and in our graphical point forecast you can see the ups and downs with precipitation types and marginal temperatures expected: Anyway, for whatever happens, I've got the J&E Productions Live Web Cam running for those that are monitoring accumulations in the area. It sounds like there could be a lot of ups and down with respect to accumulations and melting, but my plan is to use the 1-foot gauge for monitoring intermediate accumulations while letting the tall gauge just sit for the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I am going into this one with no expectations given the very high bust potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 I am going into this one with no expectations given the very high bust potential Same here. I'm actually fascinated with the bust potential. I mean everyone, including the media, public, etc seem to think we are getting at least a foot of snow. That new NAM is very warm east of Lake Champlain. It will be very interesting to watch how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 My issue is the 925mb temps remain above freezing throughout on the latest RAP and HRRR runs. Maybe this turns into a 3,000ft+ paste and little below that? NWS was pretty funny in their update...you know they are seeing all the same things and can't really say for sure one way or another. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM EST TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS AS OF 600 AM. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS THE SLV TODAY BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION. REST OF FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED AND WE`RE MOVING INTO A WAIT AND SEE MODE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. YOU CAN SLICE THE CAKE A HUNDRED DIFFERENT WAYS AND COME UP WITH A HUNDRED DIFFERENT ANSWERS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. I had a good chuckle at that when I read that this morning. Definitely a 'wait & see' kind of set-up.... Had some freezing drizzle and a few snow grains overnight. Rather murky out there and some 30 degrees warmer than it was yesterday morning at obs time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grambo Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Just a plain ol' gray day up here but looking at Mansfield today from Grand Isle never disappoints me. I hope this picture can do, what the human eye sees and the brain perceives, some justice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Same here. I'm actually fascinated with the bust potential. I mean everyone, including the media, public, etc seem to think we are getting at least a foot of snow. That new NAM is very warm east of Lake Champlain. It will be very interesting to watch how this plays out. No doubt that there could be 6" of wet glop east of the lake and 30" west of the lake above 2500ft. Just goes that like with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 It just started snowing here in Burlington as of ~10:40 A.M. or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 It just started snowing here in Burlington as of ~10:40 A.M. or so. First flakes here in Winooski as well as of 10:45am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Snowing lightly on Mansfield. Current profile is: 3,600ft...26F 2,600ft...31F 1,500ft...29F That 925mb level is going to be the kicker...that mid-slope elevation is the one forecast to warm to real marginal levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Snowing lightly on Mansfield. Current profile is: 3,600ft...26F 2,600ft...31F 1,500ft...29F That 925mb level is going to be the kicker...that mid-slope elevation is the one forecast to warm to real marginal levels. SB reporting similar numbers. 32f at the base and 26F summit which is 4k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drew13btv Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I am a 1/4 mile from KBTV and we are getting more than just flurries now. I'd call it light snow. As of 11:45 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yeah steady snow now but we will need good rates for it to stick with these lousy bl temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 It almost looks like "white rain" at times. This is not looking too good at the moment but we will see if we can anything going with heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drew13btv Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You in downtown Winooski? I'm basically over across from SMC. I'll be happy if we get >6 from this. But the hype in the general public is insane which means perception wise this is going to bust regardless of anything said or done now. Poor meteorologists :"\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You in downtown Winooski? I'm basically over across from SMC. I'll be happy if we get >6 from this. But the hype in the general public is insane which means perception wise this is going to bust regardless of anything said or done now. Poor meteorologists :"\ I am close to I-89 (far east side of town). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drew13btv Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Okay. I'm on the other side of the bridge up the hill and the first real right turn. Pretty close. I am seeing now change in the rate of snowfall but some bigger flakes starting to show up (just as I type this I swear it appears to be increasing in snowfall/whatever is mixed in's rate, it is certainly increasing but not all good snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 ADK special. Wonder what that road at 5k will look like, the one that was buried on memorial day. I wonder if powderfreak sees a big difference between mid mountain and 3600' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Already a rain/snow mix now. Oh well. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Snowing steadily here. Warmest elevation all day has been mid-slope at 2600ft which is now 31-32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Snowing steadily here. Warmest elevation all day has been mid-slope at 2600ft which is now 31-32F. Snowing steadily here in Montpelier too. Roads got greasy quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 A heavier rate has turned it to mostly snow with some slush trying to build. We will see if we can accumulate some cement. We need the parachutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I just saw this update to the BTV NWS forecast discussion: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1254 PM EST TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW HAS REACHED THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME AND ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...BUT LOOKING SO FAR LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME. Thus far all I've seen here at UVM at 400' is snow, but accumulations are minimal on most surfaces except some elevated ones. At the house in Waterbury at ~500' we've had about ½" of accumulation so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Eyewall check out the 12z ECMWF...still snowing in the Greens at 00z SUNDAY. The mountains just keep snowing and snowing after the mix tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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