T. August Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There's a 15-acre field that slopes up from across the road at my place, and cold air draining from there settles at the house because the other 3 sides of the dooryard are surrounded by dense forest. The folks living near the high end of that field are probably 5-10F milder on prime radiational cooling nights, though only 1/4 mile away. Very interesting about the field. That same effect happens in my area too. My temp sensor near the field can be up to 10 degrees colder than just a mile away. Microclimates are fascinating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 17/-9 Feels like deep winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 17/-9 Feels like deep winter Yesterday and today are cold. Yesterday afternoon's 13-15F in town felt real deep winter, sucks cause the midnight high was 30F yesterday. Today its mid-teens still. Actually warmer up at 1,500ft. From the mountain I can see the very subtle low level inversion with the hazy look right on the valley floor. Today's actually warmer than yesterday at the summits.... it was near zero with a 30-40mph breeze yesterday afternoon, but today its calm and 10F. Feels like a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 BTV goes winter storm warning for 8-12" of heavy wet snow followed by some ice. Here's their accums map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 -6 at the shack this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 BTV goes winter storm warning for 8-12" of heavy wet snow followed by some ice. Here's their accums map: That's another bump up in potential accumulations on the map for this area; it's getting a bit deeper into the 10-14" range now. Winter Storm Watches have also been converted to Winter Storm Warnings in much of the BTV NWS forecast area as you mentioned: WWUS41 KBTV 082000 WSWBTV URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 300 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014 NYZ029>031-034-035-VTZ006-008>012-016>019-091000- /O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0007.141209T1200Z-141210T2200Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0007.141209T1600Z-141210T2200Z/ SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON- ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN- EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE... TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY... TICONDEROGA...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY... VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD... WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL... BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON 300 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BECOME HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HEAVY SNOW WILL LIGHTEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...MIXING WITH RAIN AND SLEET AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP SHARPLY IN THE HEAVY SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW AND SLEET MAY ALSO LEAD TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 I think 5-10" is prudent for this area, or even 4-8". I'm not sure I see widespread 8-10"+ being a reality. Even if it stays all snow, the moisture just isn't there on a lot of these latest model runs. QPF seems to be 0.5-0.75" prior to change over and given the marginal soundings, if you go with an 8:1 ratio wet snow... Recent trends in the past couple model runs have been to shove the better lift/moisture eastward before it gets this far north, and in general just weakens the lift as the best low level jet slides eastward up the coast. Previously it looked like we could get into that nose of the better low level jet out of the SE and bring widespread 1"+ QPF prior to any mixing... I'm just hesitant to go big with all the snow having to fall in a relatively short burst of a weakening band as it lifts northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think 5-10" is prudent for this area, or even 4-8". I'm not sure I see widespread 8-10"+ being a reality. Even if it stays all snow, the moisture just isn't there on a lot of these latest model runs. QPF seems to be 0.5-0.75" prior to change over and given the marginal soundings, if you go with an 8:1 ratio wet snow... Recent trends in the past couple model runs have been to shove the better lift/moisture eastward before it gets this far north, and in general just weakens the lift as the best low level jet slides eastward up the coast. Previously it looked like we could get into that nose of the better low level jet out of the SE and bring widespread 1"+ QPF prior to any mixing... I'm just hesitant to go big with all the snow having to fall in a relatively short burst of a weakening band as it lifts northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think 5-10" is prudent for this area, or even 4-8". I'm not sure I see widespread 8-10"+ being a reality. Even if it stays all snow, the moisture just isn't there on a lot of these latest model runs. QPF seems to be 0.5-0.75" prior to change over and given the marginal soundings, if you go with an 8:1 ratio wet snow... Recent trends in the past couple model runs have been to shove the better lift/moisture eastward before it gets this far north, and in general just weakens the lift as the best low level jet slides eastward up the coast. Previously it looked like we could get into that nose of the better low level jet out of the SE and bring widespread 1"+ QPF prior to any mixing... I'm just hesitant to go big with all the snow having to fall in a relatively short burst of a weakening band as it lifts northwest. Yeah, WCAX had widespread 8-14" on a 6:00 pm newscast map. Don't get me wrong, I'd take it but it seems a little high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yeah, WCAX had widespread 8-14" on a 6:00 pm newscast map. Don't get me wrong, I'd take it but it seems a little high. Its still going to be a nice snowfall...I just think we are going to have a limited time to snow, and like any event that is essentially a 6-9 hour burst of briefly heavy snow, its hard really rack up the big totals. The best low level jet dynamics seem to go from southern VT up through NH/ME. Even a county or two south looks like it may make a difference, so you guys near MPV tend to do well in these SE flow events (and down through Allenson's area and that eastern slope). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 What do you think the max snowfall total will be in the next 96 hours, at locations under 3000 ft ? (i.e. not Mount Washington). I am seeing the 12z GFS show up to 3" of total QPF for the middle of Maine. This area looks warm(ish) at 850mb for a long time though, so there won't be 30" of snow there. Based on this web site: http://coolwx.com/ptype it looks like some sections of all mountains/hills (ME/NH/VT/NY) could get 1.25" of QPF in the form of snow, possibly up to 15" of snow if things stay a little cold. A 12:1 snow ratio might be the max snow ratio you might get in the low mountains/hills. Also of note: the 18z GFS has a lot of freezing rain for Burlington or Montpelier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Its still going to be a nice snowfall...I just think we are going to have a limited time to snow, and like any event that is essentially a 6-9 hour burst of briefly heavy snow, its hard really rack up the big totals. The best low level jet dynamics seem to go from southern VT up through NH/ME. Even a county or two south looks like it may make a difference, so you guys near MPV tend to do well in these SE flow events (and down through Allenson's area and that eastern slope). I think you are a great poster, I bet as a forecaster you are too low 85 % of the time within 36 hours of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think you are a great poster, I bet as a forecaster you are too low 85 % of the time within 36 hours of an event. I agree PF generally leans on the conservative side in his forecasting, but I think in his position he can afford to do that somewhat since he's not forecasting for the transportation system etc. If the resort gets a bit more than forecast it's probably not a big issue (and the skiers are pleasantly surprised), but the alternative may lead to grumbling customers wondering what the heck happened. I like the reverse "weenieism" of the approach to counteract the sometimes inflated numbers from the general public, who might latch onto the highest numbers they hear thrown out. I'm not sure how the projected snowfall numbers affect the mountain operations personnel, but I'd be interested in hearing what the most important aspects of snowfall forecasts are for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think you are a great poster, I bet as a forecaster you are too low 85 % of the time within 36 hours of an event. A lot of the time up here on the synoptic coastal storms, conservative forecasts work out pretty well, especially when on the northwest fringe when the best QPF/snow growth just doesn't reach us. Obviously not always, that's dependent on storm track, and with the real moisture laden storms its probably better to go higher. But a lot of the times its a specific banded region that gets nailed, and it may or may not be over the point you're forecasting for. Then with the mesoscale events (upslope), then its time to go more bullish lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Recent trends in the past couple model runs have been to shove the better lift/moisture eastward before it gets this far north, and in general just weakens the lift as the best low level jet slides eastward up the coast. Previously it looked like we could get into that nose of the better low level jet out of the SE and bring widespread 1"+ QPF prior to any mixing... I'm just hesitant to go big with all the snow having to fall in a relatively short burst of a weakening band as it lifts northwest. I've seen that trend as well PF, but concomitant with that, it shoves that Adirondack back side snow (not sure if that's technically a deformation band or what), as well as the 540 thickness line, the 0 C 850 mbar temperature line, and the edge of the dry slot farther and farther eastward into Vermont. I guess there could be a region that just happens to miss out on both of those aspects of the storm, but it seems like one either gets hit by that front end bolus of moisture or gets into the back end and has a chance at more precipitation falling as snow. You can see that on some of the more recent model runs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I wonder what location is the best lock to get over 10". I would go with Killington Or the Loaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I wonder what location is the best lock to get over 10". I would go with Killington Or the Loaf. I think Sugarloaf is going to get dumped on. They may not avoid taint completely, but I'm willing to bet they are pounding for much today/tonight before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 And the rollback has begun here on forecast snow amounts just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 And the rollback has begun here on forecast snow amounts just a bit. Overnight the models definitely cut back on the amount of moisture that comes before any mixing and slides the best forcing ENE up the coast. Even the Canadian border of NH/ME look to have taken a little cut back too. I'm a little surprised BTV stuck with 8-13" up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 GYX have a snow map out? I never can find anything on the new website format. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 And the kicker is no cold moves in after this mess moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 BTV going snowy above 3,000ft...they seem a bit more optimistic than I am with 9-21" forecast through Thursday. Here's the Sugarloaf point and click, just because...what the heck is "Sugarload Mountain" on the NWS topo map? We've hit the sugarload! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 GYX have a snow map out? I never can find anything on the new website format. I just go to BTV's and navigate from there... http://www.weather.gov/btv/stormtotalsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I just go to BTV's and navigate from there... http://www.weather.gov/btv/stormtotalsnow Thanks. Looks similar to what I thought as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Did get 0.3" overnight with flurries falling. Enough to have to brush the car off, felt like it had some weight to it for such a small amount. Up at the mountain I'm now seeing that some heavy heavy riming was going on from 2,000ft and higher. Very white trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 BTV going snowy above 3,000ft...they seem a bit more optimistic than I am with 9-21" forecast through Thursday. forecast.JPG Here's the Sugarloaf point and click, just because...what the heck is "Sugarload Mountain" on the NWS topo map? We've hit the sugarload! sugarload.JPG Yeah the text is not matching the maps or warning text in many cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Light snow falling when I left the house at 6 this morning. I89 north of Waterbury was already a mess with 4 cars off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Good luck everyone. I seem to recall that a vertically stacked low is good for upslope in the greens. How we looking with that aspect of this system? (I'm no good with the math/science thing but I know fluffy snow on top of a base layer is good for making turns) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I just go to BTV's and navigate from there... http://www.weather.gov/btv/stormtotalsnow That map has me in the 10-14" shade, while the 6-hr snow tool stops at about 8", which I think will be closer. It's all hanging on 1-2F difference in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 BTV going snowy above 3,000ft...they seem a bit more optimistic than I am with 9-21" forecast through Thursday. forecast.JPG Here's the Sugarloaf point and click, just because...what the heck is "Sugarload Mountain" on the NWS topo map? We've hit the sugarload! sugarload.JPG If you count all the 1-3" chances between tomorrow when the low cuts off and when it pulls out early friday am, I think something in the 16-18" range is very possible for the greens above 3000ft. That NWS forecast seems pretty reasonable. As for the most snow? I'd guess whiteface and the ADK ...these cut off lows are very good for the high elevation ADK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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