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NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

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We had a trace of snow/sleet now it is just a miserable cold rain.

 

That's interesting eyewall – I'm wondering if it's a Champlain Valley situation though because BTV is generally north of that mix line in terms of latitude:

 

06DEC14A.gif

 

It's been snowing continuously over here along the spine, even at low elevation; we've had light snow this morning, but it's been ramping up over the past couple of hours and it's currently snowing with the greatest intensity of the day so far.  There's close to an inch on the snowboards since I cleared them this morning.

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Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.37" L.E.

 

The snow that has been falling today has generally been dense, although this round is somewhat drier than the round overnight.

 

Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.20 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 7.0

Snow Density: 14.3% H2O

Temperature: 35.8 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 3.5"

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A sloppy 1/4 to 1/2 inch or so here depending on the surface. It was nice to watch fall but not much to show for it. The Euro is not having an easy time with next week's storm. Either way it looks warm.

 

Its got an elevation appeal to me.  Most of the precip takes place with H85 temps below freezing, as well as 925mb temps.  The warmest temps come in that dryslot after the initial surge of precip, then when it reforms and wraps more moisture in, its cold enough everywhere for snow.  That's going to be a biatch to forecast for BTV with all the different micro-climates this region has.

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Looks like around 2" in town and base of the mountain. Getting some pancake sized flakes now. 3000ft board had 3" on it.

 

Finally got home to actually measure at home, and found 1.3" today, plus I cleared 0.8" off earlier...so 2.1" total and it looks like its mostly done.  Uncleared board had 1.9", so not much difference.

 

Up at the mountain...2-3" from 1,500ft to 3,000ft.

 

 

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Event totals: 2.8” Snow/0.41" L.E.

 

Looking at the radar I'd say this event is done here unless something develops on the back end, but the snowfall continued to dry out a bit more today and was actually getting close to 10:1 stuff.

 

Details from the 7:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.5

Snow Density: 8.0% H2O

Temperature: 33.8 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 4.0"

 

We headed up to Bolton Valley for some turns this afternoon as the snowfall was winding down.  There was only about 3-4" above the old base at 2,100' in the Village, but the depth of the snow actually began to increase pretty rapidly with respect to elevation.  All of it certainly wasn't from this most recent storm, but here's what we found in terms of powder today at various elevations:

 

2,100':  3-4"

2,500':  5-6"

2,700':  ~8"

 

It was all fairly dense stuff, so great for protecting you from anything underneath where base was thin, but in the final 200-300' above the Village it was getting wet enough that it started to knock down the quality of the turns just a bit.  I've added a couple of images from today below:

 

06DEC14C.jpg

 

06DEC14D.jpg

 

That Mansfield forecast is starting to look intriguing out toward the end of the graphical period:

 

06DEC14B.jpg

 

There's still some time before we'll know exactly what happens though:

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 329 PM EST SATURDAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS

TO THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION

POISED TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT

WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH BOTH THE

TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND EXACTLY WHERE THE 500/700MB

CIRCULATIONS CLOSE OFF ALL PLAYING A LARGE ROLE INTO THE AMOUNT

AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WE`LL SEE. THE GFS REMAINS THE COLDER OF

BOTH SOLUTIONS...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN GEM WHICH

WOULD OFFER A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS LATE

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF INTRODUCES A WARM

NOSE AT 850MB DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD WITH MIXED PRECIP MORE

LIKELY. TO BE HONEST...NOT GOING TO RELY ON EITHER SOLUTION AT

THIS POINT AND TAKE A GENERAL BLEND. HOPEFULLY WE CAN IRON OUT THE

DETAILS WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TOMORROW.

 

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BOTH SOLUTIONS OFFER SNOW AS THE PREDOMINATE

PRECIP TYPE WHICH LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A STRONG BLOCK HIGH

UPSTREAM...BUT AGAIN DIFFERENCE THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER

LEVEL FEATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH.

 

BOTTOM LINE...THERE WILL BE A STORM. WHERE...WHEN...WHAT FALLS FROM

THE SKY? STAY TUNED.

 

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Air fluff flurries this morning. As for this week's storm I am more excited for it helping the ski areas as here we may have too many p-type problems and shadowing with easterly flow and downslope winds Tue night.

Well yesterday I was praying for a net gain. This morning trying to figure out how to get out of work and up to vt before Friday.

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

I was surprised to see snow falling this morning when I was making my morning observations, and that was compounded by the fact that the sky was essentially cloudless except for what appeared to be a few parked off to the west in the Champlain Valley.  Naturally I went right to the BTV NWS forecast discussion to find out what was causing the snow, and it seems like it might have been blow over LES from Champlain:

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 628 AM EST SUNDAY... I`VE HAD TO ADJUST SKY COVER UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SHARP CLEARING. I`VE ALSO ADDED SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN. RADAR RETURNS WITH THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REAL LIGHT. THE HI-RES 00Z WRF-NMM DEPICTS THIS THE BEST, AND SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END BY EARLY THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN.

 

Since today's snow didn’t seem tide in to our most recent storm in any way due to how much it cleared out, I'm putting it down as its own event.

 

I couldn't get the radar to save the zoomed in version at the time, so I had to get the broad image, but you can see that pulse of moisture work its way down the western slopes during the middle of the sequence, and I'm guess that's what blew the snow over here:

 

07DEC14A.gif

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 15.0 F

Sky: Clear/Light Snow

Snow at the stake: 4.0"

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We are getting massive dendrites out of clear skies right now.

 

This morning I had 0.3" and it was snowing with the moon and stars out.

 

Oh, I just saw this post now – I bet it was the same stuff that hit us – clear skies with snow falling, so you know it had to be blowing in from somewhere.

 

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The Euro has about as strange a solution as I have ever seen for this week. Low #1 moves north and over NYC/NJ by Wed morning. Low #2 takes over and moves inland from outside the benchmark and into the St. Lawrence Valley of northern NY by Thu morning.

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The recent storm wreaked havoc with my adventure on Mt Moosilauke. There was about 6" newly-fallen at the trailhead, but fortunately a couple of peeps arrived before me and took on the task of trail breaking.

The Beaver Brook Trail (part of the AT) is very steep, but I simply followed the boot tracks of the folks ahead. Eventually I came across one fellow making his way down. Accordingly, two sets of boot prints soon became one.

With increased elevation came increased snow depth. At 4000' we were postholing through 10 or 12" of freshies. The guy I was tracking bare-booted; I put on the snowshoes. It was arduous travel, even at relatively flat areas. Snowshoes sank in the snow. Lift .. *crunch* ..lift .. *crunch*. I decided to go a bit further to Jobildunk Ravine to grab through-the-trees views and then would make a decision.

It was an easy decision - over a mile to go to the summit where winds were ripping 40+ and it was nearly noon with a long slow slog back downhill ahead. The mountain will be here another day. Probably a warmer day :)

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post-254-0-52076300-1417982629_thumb.jpg

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