eyewall Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I was away today but yes it looks like the Euro is back on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It looks like the Friday and Saturday event is a net loss or break even for what little snow pack is left up by BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Had a storm total of 5" on the mountain from this event (3.5" WAA and 1.5" this morning with CAA)...and 3.5" at home (2.8" + 0.7"). Total at the house for this one so far has been 4.0" snow from 0.39"+ of liquid – I've still got to core this morning's round of snow to find the total liquid though. I was definitely intrigued this morning listening to Roger Hill’s first broadcast – he mentioned a potential 3-6" of snow from the system tomorrow night (not sure if that was just mountains or mountains/valleys) with the mixing line only hitting the MPV area, and the possibility of much more snow from a system at the beginning of next week. He did mention that the mixing line was hard to pin down with the first system, but the latest modeling I'm seeing suggests something similar to this past system, with some liquid precipitation in the middle. The 540 thickness line is pretty close here, and the 850 mbar temperatures do seem to stay below freezing on the most recent ECMWF run, but lower elevation temperatures are certainly above freezing. Our point forecast does actually call for something close to that 3-6" of snow on the front end, but that sounds high based on the BTV NWS forecast discussion. There could be a bit more moisture with this storm though: BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ENE INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FEED AND LIFT THROUGH LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. QPF SOMEWHAT HEAVIER WITH THIS EVENT THAN LAST...GENERALLY FROM 0.20 TO 0.80 INCHES. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A MIX...THEN RAIN FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. We'll have to see what happens with that next potential system, but I can see what Roger Hill must have been talking about – there would certainly be some snow as modeled on the ECMWF: The BTV NWS doesn't feel that's the more likely outcome however as noted earlier: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH A DRY MONDAY BUT STILL OFFERS TWO DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW WHICH WILL SLIDE UP THE COAST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND BECOME LOCKED IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THAT SYSTEM PHASES TOGETHER THERE WILL BE ENHANCED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE REGION. THE GFS HOWEVER SHOWS THE COASTAL LOW BEING AROUND 12-18 HOURS SLOWER SO AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WILL PUSH THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THAT SOLUTION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT OF A SHORT WAVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. RIGHT NOW THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION IS THE GFS SO I CONTINUED THE TREND OF JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION AND THE THERMAL PROFILES OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SUPPORT PREDOMINANTLY SNOW WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW JUST OVER THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND THE NEARBY AREAS IN THE VALLEY. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING DRYER WEATHER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 RIGHT NOW THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION IS THE GFS... I wonder what they are seeing that makes the GFS solution more likely? BTV seems bearish on both of the upcoming events to me. Quoted from J.Spin but obviously from the NWS BTV AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Event totals: 4.0” Snow/0.41" L.E. I think this is the final for this recent event, since it's pretty clear out there. The next event in the forecast starts tomorrow evening. Details from the 9:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.1 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 55.5 Snow Density: 1.8% H2O Temperature: 14.5 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 1.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Winter Weather Advisory posted for 3-5" for the next event... Statement as of 3:55 am EST on December 5, 2014 ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to midnight EST Saturday night... The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for wintry mixed precipitation... which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to midnight EST Saturday night. * Locations... the central and northern Green Mountains and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. * Hazard types... snow and sleet. * Accumulations... snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches of wet snow... along with a trace of ice. * Maximum snowfall rate... up to a half inch per hour... mainly tonight through Saturday morning. * Timing... light snow will begin early tonight transitioning to a wintry mix of sleet and snow overnight into Saturday morning. A brief period of rain Saturday afternoon will change back to snow Saturday night. * Impacts... untreated roads and sidewalks will become slippery producing hazardous travel conditions. * Winds... southwest 5 to 10 mph. * Temperatures... lows tonight around 20. Highs Saturday in the lower 30s. * Visibilities... at or below one mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Looks like 1-2" or so here as well before H85 starts to go above 0C. Currently 11.7F for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Cold start up there Lyndonville -2f. http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:05851.1.99999?MR=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This upcoming storm that is expected to start tonight seems very similar to the one we just had – Winter Weather Advisories are up, and the advisory statement for the general Northern Vermont area east of the Greens calls for 3-5" of snow: I was about to post the WWA text in my message, but I see PF was already all over that early this morning! This is what I found for the current projected accumulations map: Even if the last system didn't result in huge increases in snowpack depth, it definitely helped substantiate it in our area by putting some liquid equivalent into it. In his first WDEV broadcast this morning, Roger Hill has similar thoughts to what the Winter Weather Advisory indicated for the northern part of the state indicated – with the potential for 3-6" in the highest elevations with the best temperature profiles. He also tossed out initial thoughts on the potential storm next week of 5-10" of snow, but of course that's subject to lots of change at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Nice sunrise this morning, and yes this is using a filter. 4F down in town this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The low was 5.5°F here this am and overnight and Saturdays event looks quite similar to what we had here weds as far as precip and totals 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The low was 5.5°F here this am and overnight and Saturdays event looks quite similar to what we had here weds as far as precip and totals 1-2" yeah and a bunch of ice. Our driveway is already a glacier in spots. I should have removed the snow/ice from the last event, but it's rock hard now. Break out the sand tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Cold morning. Classic very cold morning before messy sleet storm. Though I like the look of this event for NNE. Feeling a 3-6" type event of wettish paste for 'bush north through Jay above 2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This morning's forecast is pretty much the same as what I read this past Tuesday - foothills have advisory for 2-4" plus some IP/ZR. Maybe CAD is being given a bit more respect this time, with nonfrozen precip limited for the foothills and absent for the mts. About -5/-6 this morning, even with some high cloud. Had to put the light spring-and-fall jacket back into the closet for something a bit heavier. -11 at PQI, probably -15 or so at Estcourt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I would say it was a wee bit chilly last night up in NW Maine.............lol NOUS41 KCAR 051400PNSCARMEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-060200-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME900 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014...LATEST LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS...LOCATION TEMP TIME/DATE LAT/LON...MAINE......AROOSTOOK...ESTCOURT STATION -20 F 0645 AM 12/05 47.44N/69.16WBIG BLACK RIVER -18 F 0645 AM 12/05 46.89N/69.75WAROOSTOOK RIVER AT MASARDIS -16 F 0645 AM 12/05 46.52N/68.37WVAN BUREN -14 F 0720 AM 12/05 47.17N/67.94W1 SW FORT KENT -14 F 0700 AM 12/05 47.24N/68.61W5 SE GRAND ISLE -13 F 0601 AM 12/05 47.24N/68.10W4 E NEW SWEDEN -13 F 0718 AM 12/05 46.96N/68.03WFOX BROOK -12 F 0420 AM 12/05 46.81N/68.84WDICKEY -12 F 0515 AM 12/05 47.11N/69.09W1 SSE FORT KENT -12 F 0557 AM 12/05 47.25N/68.58WCARIBOU, ME -13 F 0654 AM 12/05 46.87N/68.01WPRESQUE ISLE AIRPORT -11 F 0515 AM 12/05 46.69N/68.04W1 NW PRESQUE ISLE -11 F 0707 AM 12/05 46.70N/68.03WNINE-MILE BRIDGE -11 F 0700 AM 12/05 46.70N/69.72WEAGLE LAKE -10 F 0625 AM 12/05 47.04N/68.57W2 W SAINT AGATHA -10 F 0730 AM 12/05 47.25N/68.35WMADAWASKA -10 F 0440 AM 12/05 47.35N/68.33W1 SSE PRESQUE ISLE -9 F 0700 AM 12/05 46.65N/68.01WFORT KENT -9 F 0554 AM 12/05 47.27N/68.59W1 ENE PRESQUE ISLE -9 F 0754 AM 12/05 46.69N/67.99W3 NW MONTICELLO -9 F 0730 AM 12/05 46.34N/67.89W1 NW PRESQUE ISLE -8 F 0600 AM 12/05 46.70N/68.03WPRESQUE ISLE HILLTOP -8 F 0700 AM 12/05 46.69N/67.99WHOULTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPOR -8 F 0653 AM 12/05 46.12N/67.79WLILLE -7 F 0700 AM 12/05 47.28N/68.11WFRENCHVILLE AIRPORT -7 F 0653 AM 12/05 47.28N/68.31W1 SSW ASHLAND -5 F 0700 AM 12/05 46.60N/68.41W1 W LITTLETON 1 F 0650 AM 12/05 46.23N/67.88W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 -SN/graupel mix out there 27F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I would say it was a wee bit chilly last night up in NW Maine.............lol NOUS41 KCAR 051400 PNSCAR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-060200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 900 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2014 ...LATEST LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS... LOCATION TEMP TIME/DATE LAT/LON ...MAINE... ...AROOSTOOK... ESTCOURT STATION -20 F 0645 AM 12/05 47.44N/69.16W BIG BLACK RIVER -18 F 0645 AM 12/05 46.89N/69.75W AROOSTOOK RIVER AT MASARDIS -16 F 0645 AM 12/05 46.52N/68.37W VAN BUREN -14 F 0720 AM 12/05 47.17N/67.94W 1 SW FORT KENT -14 F 0700 AM 12/05 47.24N/68.61W 5 SE GRAND ISLE -13 F 0601 AM 12/05 47.24N/68.10W 4 E NEW SWEDEN -13 F 0718 AM 12/05 46.96N/68.03W FOX BROOK -12 F 0420 AM 12/05 46.81N/68.84W DICKEY -12 F 0515 AM 12/05 47.11N/69.09W 1 SSE FORT KENT -12 F 0557 AM 12/05 47.25N/68.58W CARIBOU, ME -13 F 0654 AM 12/05 46.87N/68.01W PRESQUE ISLE AIRPORT -11 F 0515 AM 12/05 46.69N/68.04W 1 NW PRESQUE ISLE -11 F 0707 AM 12/05 46.70N/68.03W NINE-MILE BRIDGE -11 F 0700 AM 12/05 46.70N/69.72W EAGLE LAKE -10 F 0625 AM 12/05 47.04N/68.57W 2 W SAINT AGATHA -10 F 0730 AM 12/05 47.25N/68.35W MADAWASKA -10 F 0440 AM 12/05 47.35N/68.33W 1 SSE PRESQUE ISLE -9 F 0700 AM 12/05 46.65N/68.01W FORT KENT -9 F 0554 AM 12/05 47.27N/68.59W 1 ENE PRESQUE ISLE -9 F 0754 AM 12/05 46.69N/67.99W 3 NW MONTICELLO -9 F 0730 AM 12/05 46.34N/67.89W 1 NW PRESQUE ISLE -8 F 0600 AM 12/05 46.70N/68.03W PRESQUE ISLE HILLTOP -8 F 0700 AM 12/05 46.69N/67.99W HOULTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPOR -8 F 0653 AM 12/05 46.12N/67.79W LILLE -7 F 0700 AM 12/05 47.28N/68.11W FRENCHVILLE AIRPORT -7 F 0653 AM 12/05 47.28N/68.31W 1 SSW ASHLAND -5 F 0700 AM 12/05 46.60N/68.41W 1 W LITTLETON 1 F 0650 AM 12/05 46.23N/67.88W Damn, that's cold for mid dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Damn, that's cold for mid dec That should help the ground temps............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Wtf is with this storm for Tuesday. The btv afd seems more wet than white, but pf is being congratulated on the storm thread and who knows whether that's sarcastic or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 Wtf is with this storm for Tuesday. The btv afd seems more wet than white, but pf is being congratulated on the storm thread and who knows whether that's sarcastic or not. It's looking marginal. We'll probably be able to get some snow in the mountains on the front end and back end. It's a sensitive situation though. Don't pay attention to the congrats stuff too much, everyone likes to just play around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Picked up 2.1" overnight, to give us a base of 4.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 just a new dusting here, still working on covering the grass again, like riding a roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 It's looking marginal. We'll probably be able to get some snow in the mountains on the front end and back end. It's a sensitive situation though. Don't pay attention to the congrats stuff too much, everyone likes to just play around. Thanks. I can usually figure out what's going on from the storm discussion, but there was such a dearth of posts on a complex situation and that congrats wasn't from one of the usuals. As for the storm, I'm just hoping for a net gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Thanks. I can usually figure out what's going on from the storm discussion, but there was such a dearth of posts on a complex situation and that congrats wasn't from one of the usuals. As for the storm, I'm just hoping for a net gain. The combo of whatever they get and upslope will probably give Stowe a good snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.17" L.E. There was 0.9" of dense snow on the board with small flakes falling during this morning's observations, although that next batch of precipitation is now entering the area and flake size (up to ~½") and intensity have increased. Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.17 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 5.3 Snow Density: 18.9% H2O Temperature: 32.2 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0" The north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for this event so far is below. Generally accumulations were in the 1" range with amounts starting to increase a bit near the southern part of the state: Jay Peak: 1” Smuggler’s Notch: T” Stowe: 1” Sugarbush: 1” Pico: 1” Killington: 1” Okemo: 2” Bromley: 1” Stratton: 1” Mount Snow: 3” The advisories map hasn't changed much and the Winter Weather Advisories are still in effect. The forecast here calls for another inch of snow today with the possibility of a bit more tonight. The updated map for projected accumulations from the BTV NWS is below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 quick out the door, back deck measurement looks like 3.0 new and it is still snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 This batch has come as freezing rain and some ice pellets mixed in temp 31f. Just drove to lebanon, nh roads have been cleared and salt working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 The combo of whatever they get and upslope will probably give Stowe a good snowfall. And the rest of the Greens if it works like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 About 2.5" at home and the a some sleet. Roads were crappy down there better after I got past Waterbury. Saw a truck rolled over in the median by JSpin's place. Nothing at all here in St. Albans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 We had a trace of snow/sleet now it is just a miserable cold rain. It looks like next week's storm will be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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