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NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

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Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.19" L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 2.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.19 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.1

Snow Density: 8.3% H2O

Temperature: 28.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 2.5"

 

The snowfall has slowed down over the past half hour or so, but another round appears poised to pass through the area soon:

 

02DEC14A.gif

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Event totals: 2.7” Snow/0.28" L.E.

 

We picked up an additional 0.4" after midnight; presumably due to mixed precipitation or rain in there, it was found to be very dense upon coring.

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 4.4

Snow Density: 22.5% H2O

Temperature: 33.4 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 2.5"

 

The next opportunity for snow appears to be with the passage of the cold front this evening – the BTV NWS forecast discussion suggests the potential for up to a couple inches of additional snow.

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from BTV

 

INTERESTINGLY...BOTH GFS AND ECWMF DO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW WHICH TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHEN THE CYCLOGENESIS HAPPENS IS A BIG QUESTION MARK. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS A STRONGER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO
STRONGER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THAT PROCESS IS
DELAYED IN THE GFS UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF DIGS ITS NORTHERN STREAM GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH LATER TUESDAY AND DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW COMING UP THE COAST
BY MIDWEEK. SINCE THE IDEA OF A COASTAL HAS BEEN DEPICTED FOR
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IT DOES SEEM FAIR TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE
"SOMETHING" TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT WITH TIMING AND PHASING
ISSUES, I WASN`T CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT SO I`VE LOWERED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. STAY TUNED!

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Looks like the SE flow was evident on the snowfall amounts last night... anyone east of the spine seems to have had 2-3" of snow, while west of the spine it was roughly a half inch.

 

Just around Mount Mansfield, the Stowe Village station had 3.0" while the Underhill station on the west side of the mountain had 0.5". 

 

I bet this was one of those days when J.Spin travels like a mile or two west of his house (the 2.7" there), and by the time he hits Bolton 5 minutes down the road he's looking at grass and trace of snowfall.

 

 

On another note, this brings me to 27.1" on the season, which is by far the best start I can remember in terms of raw snowfall for anywhere I've ever lived.  Unfortunately the Stowe CoCoRAHS station is missing a week of data at the end of November (darn Thanksgiving week holiday interrupting measurements), but if I insert my numbers into his missing dates, he'd be at 27.4" I think. 

 

 

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1.8 inches, 0.32 inches swe, and a thin glaze of ice on everything.  Temp at 37F.  Total for the season, 19.3 inches.  Definitely the best start here in Orwell since 2004 (moved here that March), but as nothing sticks on the ground for more than a handful of days in November, it's not something I get too excited about.

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BTV is getting a little excited. Several events to track.

"For Saturday...weak southern stream short wave energy and deep 850 to 500 mb moisture will stream across our central/southern County Warning Area. Current indications show a sharp moisture/quantitative precipitation forecast gradient across our County Warning Area from northwest to southeast...with our southern zones having the heaviest quantitative precipitation forecast. This system looks similar to the one we just had...with regards to quantitative precipitation forecast and potential for snow. Thermal profiles and soundings support mostly snow...especially above 1500 feet...but bl temperatures warm between 2-3c on Saturday afternoon...supporting a mix of rain/snow in the warmer valley locations. Thinking advisory type event is likely. "

Then for early in the week...

The position and movement of the closed 7h/500 mb circulation off the European model (ecmwf) would support a significant precipitation event across our County Warning Area Monday into Tuesday...along with a prolong period of upslope snow on the backside for Tuesday into Wednesday...for the western slope/northern dacks. The prolonged upslope scenario is supported by the 12z GFS...but initial surface low pressure tracks too far east to advect significant quantitative precipitation forecast back into our County Warning Area. If the 00z or 12z Euro was to verify a heavy wet snow storm would be likely across most of the north country...with a prolonged backside upslope event."

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Had some snow/sleet last night (I think the airport measured 1.8", but was wiped out and melted by noon. More recently, it just dumped rain on us in the Champlain Valley, but did have some chunky drops or flakes mixed in. Looks like high was 41 or 42F.

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BTV is getting a little excited. Several events to track.

"For Saturday...weak southern stream short wave energy and deep 850 to 500 mb moisture will stream across our central/southern County Warning Area. Current indications show a sharp moisture/quantitative precipitation forecast gradient across our County Warning Area from northwest to southeast...with our southern zones having the heaviest quantitative precipitation forecast. This system looks similar to the one we just had...with regards to quantitative precipitation forecast and potential for snow. Thermal profiles and soundings support mostly snow...especially above 1500 feet...but bl temperatures warm between 2-3c on Saturday afternoon...supporting a mix of rain/snow in the warmer valley locations. Thinking advisory type event is likely. "

Then for early in the week...

The position and movement of the closed 7h/500 mb circulation off the European model (ecmwf) would support a significant precipitation event across our County Warning Area Monday into Tuesday...along with a prolong period of upslope snow on the backside for Tuesday into Wednesday...for the western slope/northern dacks. The prolonged upslope scenario is supported by the 12z GFS...but initial surface low pressure tracks too far east to advect significant quantitative precipitation forecast back into our County Warning Area. If the 00z or 12z Euro was to verify a heavy wet snow storm would be likely across most of the north country...with a prolonged backside upslope event."

 

We could use a good upslope event. We've been seriously lacking.

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Had some snow/sleet last night (I think the airport measured 1.8", but was wiped out and melted by noon. More recently, it just dumped rain on us in the Champlain Valley, but did have some chunky drops or flakes mixed in. Looks like high was 41 or 42F.

Yeah I was wondering what form that precip would be in...looks like snow above 2000ft now that the mid levels are cooling off. Just the boundary layer temps are the problem now.
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Lots and lots of 1-3" type deals lately...or if they are larger they are mainly just for the ski resorts. Haven't had a big warning criteria event in a while that was upslope oriented.

 

Yeah seems that the last 2 winters were relatively lacking, especially western-slope oriented. We've had a few decent eastern-side ones and even a CPV channeling/very blocked flow event, but not a whole lot for western slopes to write home about. No classic one like this:

 

snowfall_120710.png

 

 

 

2011-2012 despite being horrid synoptically had QUITE a few good to great upslope events.

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I think it had compressed down a bit on the board. Very wet.

Yeah I measure at 1am when it stopped. I was surprised the CoCoRAHS guy near the fire station reported 3" this morning...he must've caught it early before compressing. Based on my measurements and his I always thought he just did 24 hour total at 7am, not bothering with intermediate measurements.

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This is a head scratcher considering there was 3.5" of cream cheese today on the slopes.  At least the snow depth increased from the Trace of snowfall.

 

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
510 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014

STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW
24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.21 32 10 28 T 10

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I bet this was one of those days when J.Spin travels like a mile or two west of his house (the 2.7" there), and by the time he hits Bolton 5 minutes down the road he's looking at grass and trace of snowfall.

 

attachicon.gifGetMap.aspx.gif

 

In this case everything was white as I headed west this morning, but you could see that snow accumulations were notably less in that direction.  In Burlington, the new snow was gone by some point in the morning, since they get hit with the double whammy of less snow and warmer temperatures relative to areas along the spine and east of it.  It was dark on the way home so I didn’t get a sense for how far east that melting extended, but if the usual pattern holds, there would be a notable change somewhere in that Bolton Flats area a few miles to the west.  There was some melting here as well; I'd say we probably lost about an inch or so of snow.

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In this case everything was white as I headed west this morning, but you could see that snow accumulations were notably less in that direction.  In Burlington, the new snow was gone by some point in the morning, since they get hit with the double whammy of less snow and warmer temperatures relative to areas along the spine and east of it.  It was dark on the way home so I didn’t get a sense for how far east that melting extended, but if the usual pattern holds, there would be a notable change somewhere in that Bolton Flats area a few miles to the west.  There was some melting here as well; I'd say we probably lost about an inch or so of snow.

 

Ah interesting...judging by the snow reports I would've expected a very sharp gradient from like 2-3" to 0.5" or less.

 

Anyway, maybe a little more snow tonight in the hills with the two FROPAs.

 

10484344_768553446549892_524099910603644

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We've finally mixed out and we're getting the temp "spike". Up to 35.3F now with a 27mph gust and you can hear the ice dripping off the trees.

 

For the event...

 

12/2 0.9" snow / 0.13" w.e.

12/3 0.2" snow / 0.22" w.e.

 

The local Salisbury COOP had 0.35" through their weighing gauge so we're on the exact same wavelength.

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