Hitman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 BTV's new map overnight bumped me from 4.5 to 7.5 inches. I don't know why based on the model discussions but if that verifies I would be happy. that's what im talking 'bout. let it ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 4-8 for the elevated points of the MRV sounds good to me. I wish I could have gotten a weather camera set up at my ski house - but they don't offer internet at the house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GYX map's all over the place. Yesterday had me (Thornton) @ 8-10, this morning down to 4-6 and now I'm on the cusp of 10-14 which seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 BTV forecasts... Thanks for the maps PF – that's certainly a bump around here from the 3-4" bracket to the 4-6" bracket. I was sort of surprised since I've generally been hearing about the trend of the storm track being a bit southeast of where it was. In his morning WDEV broadcast, Roger Hill said his thinking for the Barre/Montpelier area was in the 4-8" range, which is actually fairly in line with what the BTV NWS map shows. We're also under a Winter Storm Watch now, and the advisories map shows the general placement for this event thus far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GYX map's all over the place. Yesterday had me (Thornton) @ 8-10, this morning down to 4-6 and now I'm on the cusp of 10-14 which seems reasonable. View it as 4 to 14 and you are probably covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 BTV's new map overnight bumped me from 4.5 to 7.5 inches. I don't know why based on the model discussions but if that verifies I would be happy. And the new map lowers it back down to right about 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hoping to use my new cam tomorrow and assemble of a time lapse of the storm moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18Z NAM is real nice for C/NNE. For Central NH (me at 1100 feet) Im right at the 1.50 QPF mark. Take away 1/3 (its the nam) still one inch liquid. If temps could drop into the upper 20's better ratios. Maybe I could pull off 10-15". It seems 13" is always my ceiling storm after storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 And the new map lowers it back down to right about 6. In general it doesn't look like it was changed too dramatically; it looks like the accumulation zones were tightened up a bit: There may be another update in the accumulations map however – our latest point forecast bumps things up a bit more and we're under a winter storm warning now. The updated BTV NWS advisories map is below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All i need is a 50 mile bump NW but that isn't happening. I hope the 2 inches pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Look at the 18z NAM Eyewall, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 BTV's latest thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Look at the 18z NAM Eyewall, lol. LOL book it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Feeling increasingly pretty good about this one for our NEK area. Probably consensus is a nice 5-8" storm then some cold. Anyone disagree? I guess if that 18Z NAM is onto something could be some more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Good tick west 18Z GFS. Boston Mets must be pulling their hair out. Good trends for C/NNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looking more and more that us in Dendriteville will be in a very sweet spot. Too bad this guy will be moving along so no epic amounts. Since I have a 45 mile view to the SW its fun on days like tomorrow to watch the far ridges disapear one by one as the shield of snow overtakes you. Hope to drop to freezing very quickly as not to waste any QPF. Good enough to get the ski slopes open for this weekend. Great sunset tonight over a good chunk of New England! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Good tick west 18Z GFS. Boston Mets must be pulling their hair out. Good trends for C/NNE! Hahah have you seen the gradient on their map for Boston itself? Also yes the 18z GFS is a nice tick west and would make us BTV QPF queens a little happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 I like 3-6" which is essentially what BTV has forecast, though maybe a more widespread 4-8" if the GFS/NAM are correct for the northern half to third of VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I like 3-6" which is essentially what BTV has forecast, though maybe a more widespread 4-8" if the GFS/NAM are correct for the northern half to third of VT. I have not paid real close attention to the models this PM except the GFS. If there is any last minute trend it is warmer and west? Seems to me the snowfall maps for Vermont might be a little conservative. White ground is white ground so there really is not much difference from 4 to 7". You will get plenty more especially your epic snow squalls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I like 3-6" which is essentially what BTV has forecast, though maybe a more widespread 4-8" if the GFS/NAM are correct for the northern half to third of VT. i think that is reasonable and around 2 inches in BTV perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 i think that is reasonable and around 2 inches in BTV perhaps. BTV can get sneaky convergence with NE to NW winds funneling south in the valley between the mountains. I think you may be able to capitalize a little later in the storm. It may not do much but if it could add another inch, take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Its awfully warm outside for 7pm. 42/27 at 1100 feet. If this starts midday tomorrow may take a bit of time for the snow to start sticking on asphalt with the ground now thawed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 Its awfully warm outside for 7pm. 42/27 at 1100 feet. If this starts midday tomorrow may take a bit of time for the snow to start sticking on asphalt with the ground now thawed out. Still 28F at 4000ft up here one county south of Canada. I still think we are running a little warmer than yesterday's guidance had us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I've lost 2.5F past 90 minutes, down to 39.5F. Coles Pond VT at 2200 is 34F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 36.5 here in Peacham http://www.nkaf.org/weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Sitting in the bullseye atm. 10-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.php /URL] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 BTV can get sneaky convergence with NE to NW winds funneling south in the valley between the mountains. I think you may be able to capitalize a little later in the storm. It may not do much but if it could add another inch, take it. Good point. I will take whatever we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yup, it's storms like these why I built a cabin 100 miles (86.63 miles as the crow flies) north of Lowell. No worries of taint. Left Lowell at 4:30 @ 55, arrived here at 39.8, hovered around 40 for few hours but is finally radiated down to 38.2. Picked up a bottle of Glen Fiddich for tomorrow. Going to get a nice camp fire going. Rake the rest of the leaves off the lawn eyeing for first flakes. Skiing Bretton Woods Friday. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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