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NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

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BTV forecasts...

 

25NOV14B.jpg

 

 

Thanks for the maps PF – that's certainly a bump around here from the 3-4" bracket to the 4-6" bracket.  I was sort of surprised since I've generally been hearing about the trend of the storm track being a bit southeast of where it was.  In his morning WDEV broadcast, Roger Hill said his thinking for the Barre/Montpelier area was in the 4-8" range, which is actually fairly in line with what the BTV NWS map shows.  We're also under a Winter Storm Watch now, and the advisories map shows the general placement for this event thus far:

 

25NOV14A.jpg

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18Z NAM is real nice for C/NNE.    For Central NH  (me at 1100 feet) Im right at the 1.50 QPF mark.  Take away 1/3 (its the nam) still one inch liquid.  If temps could drop into the upper 20's better ratios.  Maybe I could pull off 10-15".  It seems 13" is always my ceiling storm after storm!

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And the new map lowers it back down to right about 6.

 

In general it doesn't look like it was changed too dramatically; it looks like the accumulation zones were tightened up a bit:

 

25NOV14B.jpg

 

25NOV14C.jpg

 

There may be another update in the accumulations map however – our latest point forecast bumps things up a bit more and we're under a winter storm warning now.  The updated BTV NWS advisories map is below:

 

25NOV14D.jpg

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Looking more and more that us in Dendriteville will be in a very sweet spot.  Too bad this guy will be moving along so no epic amounts. Since I have a 45 mile view to the SW its fun on days like tomorrow to watch the far ridges disapear one by one as the shield of snow overtakes you.  Hope to drop to freezing very quickly as not to waste any QPF.  Good enough to get the ski slopes open for this weekend.

 

Great sunset tonight over a good chunk of New England!

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Good tick west 18Z GFS.   Boston Mets must be pulling their hair out.  Good trends for C/NNE!

Hahah have you seen the gradient on their map for Boston itself? Also yes the 18z GFS is a nice tick west and would make us BTV QPF queens a little happier.

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I like 3-6" which is essentially what BTV has forecast, though maybe a more widespread 4-8" if the GFS/NAM are correct for the northern half to third of VT.

I have not paid real close attention to the models this PM except the GFS.  If there is any last minute trend it is warmer and west?  Seems to me the snowfall maps for Vermont might be a little conservative.  White ground is white ground so there really is not much difference from 4 to 7".  You will get plenty more especially your epic snow squalls!

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i think that is reasonable and around 2 inches in BTV perhaps.

BTV can get sneaky convergence with NE to NW winds funneling south in the valley between the mountains. I think you may be able to capitalize a little later in the storm. It may not do much but if it could add another inch, take it.

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Its awfully warm outside for 7pm. 42/27 at 1100 feet. If this starts midday tomorrow may take a bit of time for the snow to start sticking on asphalt with the ground now thawed out.

Still 28F at 4000ft up here one county south of Canada. I still think we are running a little warmer than yesterday's guidance had us.

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BTV can get sneaky convergence with NE to NW winds funneling south in the valley between the mountains. I think you may be able to capitalize a little later in the storm. It may not do much but if it could add another inch, take it.

 

Good point. I will take whatever we can get.

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Yup, it's storms like these why I built a cabin 100 miles (86.63 miles as the crow flies) north of Lowell. No worries of taint. Left Lowell at 4:30 @ 55, arrived here at 39.8, hovered around 40 for  few hours but is finally radiated down to 38.2. Picked up a bottle of Glen Fiddich for tomorrow. Going to get a nice camp fire going. Rake the rest of the leaves off the lawn eyeing for first flakes. Skiing Bretton Woods Friday. Good times.

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