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NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

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A bit like the Buffalo snow band. I would have just loved to drive the 1 mile from 0 vis snow to clear skies to the north. Bet you could have just sat in your car and watched white curtains travel by several hundred feet away. I know how it looks here with squalls but must be so much more amplified with 5" per hour snow curtains

I haven't been in an event of greater than 3 feet ever. I understand it's a serious and dangerous situation over there, but I would luv to witness it. Its been a decade since of seen more than a 2 footer, so I'm due.

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Anyway...possibly 7" at 1500ft and sounds like an easy foot up high. Snow is going over the windshield of snowmobiles up there.

 

LOL, that was so awesome to hear - what a couple of sneaky Mansfield storms we've had in the past few days.  That mountain knows how to reel in the snow.  It's also interesting how localized these past couple of snowfalls have been; we've not had nearly as much just 10 miles away down here in Waterbury.

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Wow!  I haven't really been following weather in our neck of the woods the past couple of days.  Watched the Buffalo thread yesterday but didn't even bother beyond that.  I knew we were going to warm up and get wet and something might pass well offshore late week. Came back this afternoon and see things have gotten very interesting.  This storm could really muck up holiday plans, I guess back to 6 hour model watching. 

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LOL, that was so awesome to hear - what a couple of sneaky Mansfield storms we've had in the past few days.  That mountain knows how to reel in the snow.  It's also interesting how localized these past couple of snowfalls have been; we've not had nearly as much just 10 miles away down here in Waterbury.

 

Yeah we got lucky here in town...Mansfield was just doing what it does, which is produce snow out of nothing.  But you can see the gradient in snow cover as one heads north from you.  I've got 3.5" settled on the ground, but Hyde Park to the north is showing 4.5" and some spots just ENE of there are 5-6" snow cover based on CoCoRAHS.  So there is definitely some gradient there, as even the northern spots in Waterbury are like 2-2.5" of cover. 

 

Friends coming to ski from BTV to Stowe this morning said the snow pretty much increases slowly but steadily from Waterbury all the way to the ski resort.

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What's going to happen this eve?  I'm 31.7/12.  Barely got above freezing.  Low last night 16F so ground is frozen on the surface.  Mt Washington summit 16f and below freezing down the autoroad.  Bit of snow/sleet or freezing rain??.   Light freezing rain would really slick up the roads for a Sat eve because most have not been treated from the prior storm or snow showers that never make it here.  Could be a sneaky bad situation for Rt 93 etc. if the precip makes it to the ground and not dries up first.

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I guess my earlier post was deleted but the Euro takes 980's low just off the coast of Portsmouth, NH on Thanksgiving morning. This would give interior NNE a nice thumping with the clown maps showing 12-18" or so with 8 all the way back into the SLV in NY. That is according to EuroWx.com's graphics anyway. If that verified the QPF Queens wouldn't have to worry.

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Not a snowy wintry scene that is the norm for this topic, but I'll post these as this is a place that probably few know about. This is from the Bold Coast Trail in Cutler Coast Preserve in Cutler, ME. I took a trip up the coast to far Downeast Maine with the objective of watching sunrise from West Quoddy - the easternmost point of the U.S. While researching, I remembered hearing about this trail ... and since it is about 20 miles from West Quoddy I figured I would tack it on to my weekend.

Out the door at 6am, we drove four hours to the trailhead. 30°, cloudy and breezy as we hit the trail, but the skies brightened and eventually the sun came out. The 1.5 miles to the Bay of Fundy passed quickly, and soon we were treated to amazing views that in my opinion exceed those found in Acadia NP. The trail follows the coast more or less for nearly four miles before swinging back inland for a round trip of nine miles. This is undeveloped country - we did not see a soul on land or water the entire time. Certainly a hidden gem that I cannot recommend higher, and all at no price. Incidentally, there are three campsites at ocean's edge if stargazing is your thing :):)

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Not a snowy wintry scene that is the norm for this topic, but I'll post these as this is a place that probably few know about. This is from the Bold Coast Trail in Cutler Coast Preserve in Cutler, ME. I took a trip up the coast to far Downeast Maine with the objective of watching sunrise from West Quoddy - the easternmost point of the U.S. While researching, I remembered hearing about this trail ... and since it is about 20 miles from West Quoddy I figured I would tack it on to my weekend.

Out the door at 6am, we drove four hours to the trailhead. 30°, cloudy and breezy as we hit the trail, but the skies brightened and eventually the sun came out. The 1.5 miles to the Bay of Fundy passed quickly, and soon we were treated to amazing views that in my opinion exceed those found in Acadia NP. The trail follows the coast more or less for nearly four miles before swinging back inland for a round trip of nine miles. This is undeveloped country - we did not see a soul on land or water the entire time. Certainly a hidden gem that I cannot recommend higher, and all at no price. Incidentally, there are three campsites at ocean's edge if stargazing is your thing :) :)

attachicon.gif20141122_125422.jpg

attachicon.gif20141122_113237_20141122230850608.jpg

attachicon.gif20141122_122505.jpg

attachicon.gif20141122_141343.jpg

I love that last shot!

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Not a snowy wintry scene that is the norm for this topic, but I'll post these as this is a place that probably few know about. This is from the Bold Coast Trail in Cutler Coast Preserve in Cutler, ME. I took a trip up the coast to far Downeast Maine with the objective of watching sunrise from West Quoddy - the easternmost point of the U.S. While researching, I remembered hearing about this trail ... and since it is about 20 miles from West Quoddy I figured I would tack it on to my weekend.

Out the door at 6am, we drove four hours to the trailhead. 30°, cloudy and breezy as we hit the trail, but the skies brightened and eventually the sun came out. The 1.5 miles to the Bay of Fundy passed quickly, and soon we were treated to amazing views that in my opinion exceed those found in Acadia NP. The trail follows the coast more or less for nearly four miles before swinging back inland for a round trip of nine miles. This is undeveloped country - we did not see a soul on land or water the entire time. Certainly a hidden gem that I cannot recommend higher, and all at no price. Incidentally, there are three campsites at ocean's edge if stargazing is your thing :) :)

attachicon.gif20141122_125422.jpg

attachicon.gif20141122_113237_20141122230850608.jpg

attachicon.gif20141122_122505.jpg

attachicon.gif20141122_141343.jpg

 

Since our agency manages that tract and built the trails, I'll add some comments, while agreeing with the overall opinion.  Cutler doesn't have the bald rock hills of Mt. Desert, but the seaside cliffs and headlands are unmatched on the US east coast.  Wave action is so vigorous there that the "sand" is generally larger than 2".  In the right season the strait between the coast and Grand Manan Island frequently has whales passing thru.

 

The campsites are non-reservable, so if one hikes in and finds them occupied it can be disappointing.  Number of vehicles in the lot can give one a guess at the likelihood of that happening, though most visitors just walk out to the coast and back..  No open fires, either - the difficult access would give a wildfire a huge head start.  So self-contained cookstove is needed.

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Jayhawk--we went to the downeast coast last summer ('13) and hiked at the Bold Coast at Cutler.  Great spot and I have a few shots myself from almost the same vantage point as your second photo.  We stayed at the old Coast Guard station at West Quoddy Head--highly recommended.

 

http://www.quoddyvacation.com/

 

Long time, no post for me--we have a new addition to the family which is keeping me pretty busy, lol.

 

Anyway, needless to say it's been rather wintry around here--low of 7F yesterday morning, snow on the ground and ponds freezing up already.

 

"When there's ice in November that will hold a duck, there'll be little thereafter but sleet & muck."   :loon:

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Allenson - I'm at Quoddy Head Station as well! Mostly because all the B&Bs are closed for the season, but completely satisfied with the Station - a group of us may return here in summer next year based on my recommendation. Cloudy skies nixed sunrise but we're gonna have fun hiking the West Quoddy SP trails today, and also check out Schoodic Peninsula on our way back south.

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The 12z Euro is essentially in the sweet spot but any farther west and we will begin to have problems. It is a huge hit though. Powder will need a yardstick for the picnic tables.

 

I'm not sure if this is kosher, but this was posted on Facebook so I'm linking it from there, not uploading it to AMWX.

 

This is from DT but its a public file now because he puts it everywhere, not a private paid image.

 

10401498_779507982096462_516534647140796

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53F sunny, no wind.  Perfect afternoon for Nov 23.

 

On Thursday AM our town has a huge outdoor event called a Turkey Trot.  Its been a long tradition.  Over 1000 people walk a 3 mile course and donate money for needy families in our town.  Outdoor vendors selling things, food etc.  Prizes.  It huge.  The coordinator is a friend and always asks me the weather for the event.  Some snow and its on but not a full blown noreaster.  To change the date is a big deal, they have never had to.  She will be calling me.  This AM looking at the GFS  I thought we would be on the western edge with just some snow, now Im nervous.   If they cancel or change the date they loose thousands and if they do make a change because of what I suggest and its wrong its egg on my face.  I guess we have another day to wait before we have to get the word out if its off as so much food is made.  Friday AM looks much safer.  NAM, GFS and Euro seem like the outcomes would be very different here just south of the Whites.

 

PS Just looking at the Euro snowfall map just posted its 7-9" for me but 3-4 days out that will shift 50 miles one way or the other, probably east.

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Any guesses for snow amounts for C/NNE?  Fast mover maybe a general  7-14"??

 

Not a bad first guess for most of the posters on here.  At this point I'd forget most other models and go with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.  I generally have a conservative outlook, so I'd go for like a 3-10" range to start with.  Even with either mixing for the eastern half of NNE (should Euro verify), or fringe job for the western half (if it trends hard east again), most of us look to get some snow out of this as of now.

 

Obviously, there are some super-amped ensemble members on the Euro especially, and we are still relatively early in the game, so its got time to go either way quite a bit.  3 days can be a lot of time in model world.

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Not a bad first guess for most of the posters on here.  At this point I'd forget most other models and go with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.  I generally have a conservative outlook, so I'd go for like a 3-10" range to start with.  Even with either mixing for the eastern half of NNE (should Euro verify), or fringe job for the western half (if it trends hard east again), most of us look to get some snow out of this as of now.

 

Obviously, there are some super-amped ensemble members on the Euro especially, and we are still relatively early in the game, so its got time to go either way quite a bit.  3 days can be a lot of time in model world.

 

I'm on the side of the "fringe job" for this event. 

 

I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to ski pow all turkey day weekend. 'Cause without I'm not looking forward to the results of 1" of rain and then a strong cold front. 

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I'm on the side of the "fringe job" for this event.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to ski pow all turkey day weekend. 'Cause without I'm not looking forward to the results of 1" of rain and then a strong cold front.

Yeah that folded quickly up here...definite fringe job, if that. Glad I stayed conservative in the mtn ops forecast yesterday.

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