jm1220 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Mehhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Thus I consider myself the winner of both contests. Consider yourself our mate. We don't want to have no fuss For after some consideration, we can state... Consider yourself... One of us! <crooned with a rather distinct Cockney patois> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Mehhh Most of my knowledge of the greater Austin area was derived from watching that perfectly splendid song & dance number by the inestimable Charles Durning in TBLWIT...good luck in your endeavors down there. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kl8ajhu_e5Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Consider yourself our mate. We don't want to have no fuss For after some consideration, we can state... Consider yourself... One of us! <crooned with a rather distinct Cockney patois> I'll drink to that. Especially if it applies to the PR portions. Seriously I agree with you. And no one is winning from this yawner of a non-winter. I hate to say but sensibly it's tracking 1972-3 perfectly, right down to the expected January 6 and after cold wave. Look at the dailies for January 1973 (link). And then flip back a month. And then one more month. And to the preceding cool summer. Eerie, Ain't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'll drink to that. Especially if it applies to the PR portions. Seriously I agree with you. And no one is winning from this yawner of a non-winter. I hate to say but sensibly it's tracking 1972-3 perfectly, right down to the expected January 6 and after cold wave. Look at the dailies for January 1973 (link). And then flip back a month. And then one more month. And to the preceding cool summer. Eerie, Ain't it. I believe there was no measurable snow during the 1972-73 winter south of a line from about Trenton to Asbury Park. A bit of snow fell in that area in October 1972...thereafter...nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I believe there was no measurable snow during the 1972-73 winter south of a line from about Trenton to Asbury Park. A bit of snow fell in that area in October 1972...thereafter...nothing. There was a major snowstorm around 29 January 1973...with up to a foot falling in the high spots of Morris, Passaic, Warren , & Sussex counties...but really nothing along the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I believe there was no measurable snow during the 1972-73 winter south of a line from about Trenton to Asbury Park. A bit of snow fell in that area in October 1972...thereafter...nothing. That's correct with one caveat; the Deep South got some on January 7, 1973 (day of my father's funeral there was, if I recall, a suppressed storm) and a huge one in early February that buried KATL. There was a major snowstorm around 29 January 1973...with up to a foot falling in the high spots of Morris, Passaic, Warren , & Sussex counties...but really nothing along the coastal plain. KNYC got about 2.0" out of their 2.9" for the winter out of that one. My pet theory is that the developing Niña robbed us of what is normally a good snow opportunity in February. The Niña came on as sharply as 2009-10, except that one gave us the "snowicane" of February 25-26 before destroying March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 That's correct with one caveat; the Deep South got some on January 7, 1973 I think there was some in the Andes as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think there was some in the Andes as well... True. My point stands that even though ENSO does not track that awful winter, sensible weather is almost an exact match and almost to the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 NYC is getting more than 2.8" of snow this winter. As far as I know none of the professional mets list 72/73 as their analog. I'd probably fancy something like 94/95 or 06/07 before that winter. Given the sheer fact that precipitation anomalies have soared in the past few decades is enough to justify that we probably won't hit such a low mark until the warming supersedes the cold enough to substantially lower average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 NYC is getting more than 2.8" of snow this winter. As far as I know none of the professional mets list 72/73 as their analog. Well, that settles it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 NYC is getting more than 2.8" of snow this winter. As far as I know none of the professional mets list 72/73 as their analog. I'd probably fancy something like 94/95 or 06/07 before that winter. Given the sheer fact that precipitation anomalies have soared in the past few decades is enough to justify that we probably won't hit such a low mark until the warming supersedes the cold enough to substantially lower average snowfall. Was 1997-98 analogous to some previous winter or was it simply sui generis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 NYC is getting more than 2.8" of snow this winter. As far as I know none of the professional mets list 72/73 as their analog. I'd probably fancy something like 94/95 or 06/07 before that winter. Given the sheer fact that precipitation anomalies have soared in the past few decades is enough to justify that we probably won't hit such a low mark until the warming supersedes the cold enough to substantially lower average snowfall. 1972 in fact was the rainiest year on record at that point until 1983. And 1971 and 1973 were both pretty wet as well. Last year we had around 54" for the year, well below 1972's figure, which I frankly don't remember. Also, too many things have to go wrong for 1972-3 to literally be duplicated.Even that winter we had near-misses on December 15, 1972, January 7, 1973, January 29, 1973 and I believe February 7, 1973 which could have made the winter a nice one. I don't recall that many exciting near-misses in 1997-8, 2001-2 or 2011-12. Was 1997-98 analogous to some previous winter or was it simply sui generis? 1997-8 was somewhat analogous to 1972-3 in that both were strong, basin-wide El Niños. 1997-8 was saved from the dubious distinction of beating 1972-3's record by a late-March 5" or 6" event. My pet theory is that one was let in by the lack of a quick transition to La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 I don't think 1"fell on one day in November at KNYC. I also don't believe that happened in December's "heavy flurries"of December 12. Thus I consider myself the winner of both contests. I do not wish these results however. http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.NYC.KOKX.html Were You In Central Park to Measure It ? Case Closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Well, that settles it... Yes because they're genuises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.NYC.KOKX.html Were You In Central Park to Measure It ? Case Closed Did you see the snow falling in NYC that day? I did, albeit at 32nd Street and Park Avenue. It did not have the look of accumulating snow, especially at above-freezing temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Did you see the snow falling in NYC that day? I did, albeit at 32nd Street and Park Avenue. It did not have the look of accumulating snow, especially at above-freezing temperatures. Call Upton and complain then - explain your situation regarding the snowfall contest ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 1972 in fact was the rainiest year on record at that point until 1983. And 1971 and 1973 were both pretty wet as well. Last year we had around 54" for the year, well below 1972's figure, which I frankly don't remember. Also, too many things have to go wrong for 1972-3 to literally be duplicated.Even that winter we had near-misses on December 15, 1972, January 7, 1973, January 29, 1973 and I believe February 7, 1973 which could have made the winter a nice one. I don't recall that many exciting near-misses in 1997-8, 2001-2 or 2011-12. 1997-8 was somewhat analogous to 1972-3 in that both were strong, basin-wide El Niños. 1997-8 was saved from the dubious distinction of beating 1972-3's record by a late-March 5" or 6" event. My pet theory is that one was let in by the lack of a quick transition to La Niña. 1972-73 and 1997-98 had no clipper that put down an inch or more of snow... February 73 had two arctic outbreaks with single digits...I saw ice on the Hudson...That didn,t happen in 1997-98...The only thing those winters have in common is a strong el nino very little snow fell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 1972-73 and 1997-98 had no clipper that put down an inch or more of snow...Strong Niños are generally weak in the "clipper" department. The December 2008 storm, during a Niña is one of the few clippers that I remember that actually morphed into a real storm, a SWF event. February 73 had two arctic outbreaks with single digits...I saw ice on the Hudson...That didn,t happen in 1997-98...The only thing those winters have in common is a strong el nino very little snow fell...And January 1973 had one of those outbreaks as well. The only "outbreak" which was very short-lived was New Years Eve 1998 into early January, ending in the spectacular interior NY/Eastern Canada ice storm. THe two winters also had in common the fact that -NAO blocking was limited to November and March; too early and too late to do much good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Call Upton and complain then - explain your situation regarding the snowfall contest .........Their phone number ? Do you remember the old WEather 6-1212 numbers that many cities had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 1972-73 and 1997-98 had no clipper that put down an inch or more of snow... February 73 had two arctic outbreaks with single digits...I saw ice on the Hudson...That didn,t happen in 1997-98...The only thing those winters have in common is a strong el nino very little snow fell... This is probably the most impressive Alberta Clipper that redeveloped when it hit the coast to effect the region in recent memory http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This is probably the most impressive Alberta Clipper that redeveloped when it hit the coast to effect the region in recent memory http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Strong Niños are generally weak in the "clipper" department. The December 2008 storm, during a Niña is one of the few clippers that I remember that actually morphed into a real storm, a SWF event. And January 1973 had one of those outbreaks as well. The only "outbreak" which was very short-lived was New Years Eve 1998 into early January, ending in the spectacular interior NY/Eastern Canada ice storm. THe two winters also had in common the fact that -NAO blocking was limited to November and March; too early and too late to do much good. 1997-98 was one of the warmest winters on record and had the highest coldest 30 day period on record...1972-73 isn't in the top ten warmest...it averaged 32.0 for 30 days around February... season....30 day ave...seasonal snowfall... 1997-98.....37.3.............5.5" 2011-12.....37.0.............7.4" 1948-49.....36.3...........46.6" 1931-32.....35.8.............5.3" 2007-08.....35.7...........11.9" 1952-53.....35.5...........15.1" 2001-02.....35.4.............3.5" 1936-37.....34.9...........15.6" 1990-91.....34.5...........24.9" 1932-33.....33.9...........27.0" 1950-51.....33.0...........11.6" 1974-75.....33.0...........13.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Nov - 0.1 dec - 5.5 Jan - 6.1 Feb - 9.1 Mar - 3.8 total - 24,5 This doesn't even add up to 24.5"...it adds up to 24.6"...moreover, it *seems* January suddenly has a couple more low forecasts for snow than it did when the contest closed two months ago...was this thread properly locked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This doesn't even add up to 24.5"...it adds up to 24.6"...moreover, it *seems* January suddenly has a couple more low forecasts for snow than it did when the contest closed two months ago...was this thread properly locked? Lol if people really changed their *guesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Lol if people really changed their *guesses I mean if he didn't lock it...he figured they would adhere to the honor system...if you cheated, I think you should be eliminated from the contest...as John Herod noted in The Quick & the Dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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