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December Snowfall Contest Final Results

NEG NAO

By NEG NAO,
in New York City Metro

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cjr231

cjr231

Posted
Posted

Nov: 0.8

Dec: 13.6

Jan: 8.2

Feb: 7.5

Mar: 1.4

Apr:  0.0

May: 0.0

 

Season Total: 31.5

 

Predicting a more front-loaded winter with the winter pattern we are entering into now re-setting come the heart of winter. Also think suppression may be an issue more often than not during our cold spells and a dominant -AO.

 

Hoping for feet and feet of snow of course. :) 

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

4 KU's only get you to 60"? Did you get the knockoff KU book? :)

First off, not every KU event is a 30" event. Secondly, you have to account for KNYC being too far north of a few events and or too warm on some coastal huggers. It's still a KU if Morristown records 24" and the city gets 6" of slop. The same can be said about the events which focus more on the mid-atlantic.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Nov: 1.0"

Dec: 7.5"

Jan: 10.5"

Feb: 24.5"

Mar: 4.0"

Apr: T

 

Total: 47.5"

 

Nino seasons typically come on late, so I think Feb will be the most active month. Based on all indications so far it should be a very active winter here with lots of storm threats. Dec may be snowier than I have here-we'll have to see how fast the pattern starts for us getting snow. The timing of any KU snow events obviously make huge differences in each month.

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

Posted
Posted

November——–—2.4"

December———–5.5"

January–————19.7"

February————14.2"

March—————–2.2"

April——————None

May——————None

 

Seasonal total: 44.0"

 

My main concerns are a continuation of the underperforming precipitation events that we've seen this year (lots of areas have rather significant rainfall deficits); the growing inevitability of at least some suppression of storm tracks and moisture advancement; and of course the typical issues that plague our winter events.

 

For November, I expect a minor accumulation in the next two weeks or so, perhaps a case where the hotspots post 3-6" but NYC ends up with a slushy .9". A slightly more robust event wouldn't surprise me in the parting days of the month.

 

I think December will see plenty of suppression depression, with abundant cold air but sparse snowflakes. I'll allow for one or two events to thread the needle and yield plowable snow.

 

I think we all agree that this winter looks promising, based on continental-scale indicators, so with persistent cold air and an active storm track (which has already shown itself at times this fall), I think it's fair to bank on a couple "meat 'n potatoes" storms in the heart of winter, January and February. A misplaced shortwave or a renegade subtrop in the Atlantic could make or break an entire season's totals, of course. 

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Nov: 5.8"

Dec: 7.5"

Jan: 3.2"

Feb: 19.5"

Mar: 3.5"

Apr: T

 

Total: 39.5"

 

I think we have a great November 15th to December 10th period. Then I think the pattern breaks down from mid December to the end of January before re-loading for a great February.

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nyblizz44

nyblizz44

Posted
Posted

Nov - 9.0 ( drop signficantly below seasonal temps yields a surprise)

Dec- 17 ( will start early and ramp up as month unfolds)

Jan- 12( suppression in most cases but one moderate storm)

Feb- 23.0 ( This is the month for a KU, based on long term track projections)

March-16 ( March comes in a like alion but we are done by Mar 20th)

77 inches Sesaonal total.

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

Posted
Posted

Nov - 9.0 ( drop signficantly below seasonal temps yields a surprise)

Dec- 17 ( will start early and ramp up as month unfolds)

Jan- 12( suppression in most cases but one moderate storm)

Feb- 23.0 ( This is the month for a KU, based on long term track projections)

March-16 ( March comes in a like alion but we are done by Mar 20th)

77 inches Sesaonal total.

What "long term track projections"?

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hooralph

hooralph

Posted
Posted

If that 107" for KNYC verified Anthony would be in nirvana this entire season

 

Nov____ T

Dec____25.8"

Jan____4.8"

Feb____47.4"

Mar____29.3" 

Total - 107.3"

 

If Central Park gets 107.3" I'll drive to your house and shovel your driveway for the entire 2015-2016 season.*

 

Also, why not go for 107.7 and take Boston's record, too?

 

 

*Someone must buy me a car. And rent a parking space.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

Nov: 5.5"

Dec: 12.7"

Jan: 25.0"

Feb: 20.5"

Mar: 10.5"

Apr: 2.5"

Total: 76.5"

All in all, I believe that we have an epic winter ahead of us. Big storms in both January and February push us way above average. Some areas in the suburbs could reach or exceed 100". I've usually been fairly conservative with winter forecasts, but one simply cannot ignore the trends, which are for bigger, stronger storms. The past several years alone have dealt us with several record-breaking snowstorms. It is sometimes hard to realize that you are living in the "golden years", but let's take the time to realize that if you love snow, now is a great time. The fact of the matter is that the setup for this winter seems primed to deliver with all the stars aligning. Combine this with recent trends for stronger storms.....an exciting time is ahead. It honestly could just as easily give us cold and dry weather, or a warm spell when the big storms hit. However, at this juncture, it'd make most sense to go for a forecast of much above normal snowfall. 50-100" for the NNJ/NYC/NW suburbs (higher numbers NW)

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

Posted
Posted

Nov: 1.8"

Dec: 19.4"

Jan: 24.5"

Feb: 16.1"

Mar: 7.5"

Apr: 0.6"

 

Total: 69.9"

 

 

Reasoning:

 

I am almost certain that the first week of December will feature high temps not getting above 34*F for six consecutive days. However, it will be on the dry side during this time frame. But, I have a gut feeling that our most active period will be between December 10 through January 20 with regards to snowstorms. During this period, I think we will have a robust MJO phase which will correspond with an impressive +PNA spike. I think the STJ will be in its earnest as the El Nino will be peaking at this stage. I believe we will also have one KU storm in a very bitter cold air mass probably in late December when we will have a significant -EPO ridge develop. I think NYC's coldest day will occur on January 2 where we will fail to rise above 11*F and have a nighttime low of -4*F. As we go into February, I think the El Nino will begin to fade into neutral-positive territory as the MJO becomes less favorable. We may actually see more of a La Nina pattern develop during that month; although, I think the -AO and -NAO will still deliver us an above-normal snowfall month.

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