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My 1st 2 week outlook of the season. The pattern is a good one


usedtobe

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The combination of a negative AO and NAO along with a positive PNA pattern is combo that is best of all of them for us getting snow. Too bad it's still November, a month from now and I'd be excited.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/06/d-c-to-be-dealt-a-dose-of-winter-in-about-a-week-and-it-may-stick-around/

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 November 15 to 20 temperatures will also average well below normal.  The pattern is not a wet one but, with hint of a little west-southwest flow, there is some potential for a low to track far enough north to give us some precipitation

 

I focused on the above :)

 

Thanks for the explanation of the patterns, Wes.  As always, excellent write up.

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Euro showing a stripe of 6+ snow next week in parts of the area. Model madness ha ha. Currently 32

Long range euro ensembles look cold.

Sorry I didn't respond sooner, I was golfing today and didn't look at the mdoels until this evening. I wouldn't get too excited about the 240 hr Euro. Perfect storms on day 10 rarely pan out. Plus, the storm has little support from the euro ensemble members. Those same ensembles have quite a bit of spread on the 17 and 18 so those are days when some moderation is possible. Certainly wouldn'tt torch but could nudge up to normal or very near it for the maxes. I'll be doing another outlook Thursday.

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