Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

November 10-12 Major Early Season Winter Storm


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 433
  • Created
  • Last Reply

MQT top one day and two day snowfall totals in the November 1-15 timeframe...since 1980.

 

One day totals

12.8" on November 6, 1988

12.2" on November 9, 1983

11.4" on November 9, 2011

10.1" on November 5, 1993

9.5" on November 10, 1997

 

Two day totals

18.8" on November 5-6, 1988

15.0" on November 10-11, 1997

14.6" on November 9-10, 1983

14.0" on November 4-5, 1993

13.3" on November 6-7, 1988

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Easy call

 

 

Climo is a good tool but have to remember that using it for specific systems can be risky and eventually you're gonna get burned.  

 

I wish I knew what the models were showing in the lead up to the October 1989 storm.  Would anyone have believed that northern/central IN were going to get 6-10" of system snow? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Climo is a good tool but have to remember that using it for specific systems can be risky and eventually you're gonna get burned.  

 

I wish I knew what the models were showing in the lead up to the October 1989 storm.  Would anyone have believed that northern/central IN were going to get 6-10" of system snow?

That was an impressive system according to the data. Straight north and even a bit NW to land near Pellston, MI.

Fwiw, we may be seeing a system similar to that next week.

Enjoying the excitement lately. Early and abrupt "switch" to winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My latest thoughts: http://www.midwestweather.org/2014/11/crippling-winter-storm-monday.html

 

Still think Iowa and southern wisconsin could see a couple inches as the system pulls off to the northeast. Models don't agree, but the dynamics and forcing will be in place. Thoughts?

 

Thinking some snows along the Arctic front is possible (like 11/12/13), but it will be light. 

 

12z EURO

 

 

New GFS, not budging on being the "southern" solution. I'm really interested to see how it performs.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

question on the grapic on your blog uw-weather. how come you have the over-lapping bands on there? (6-12, 8-14, 12-20)

 

if anything, imho, those bands should be something like 6-9/9-12/12-18/18+ or something like 6-10/10-14/14-18/18+ ? because the way you currently have it imho looks like some complex venn diagraming.

 

as for the snow in northern IA/southern WI, the 1-3 band is a bit generous, but not totally out to lunch on the low side, given the grid data I have seen the last few days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Marginal" Possible Thunderstorms on the docket for D3 via the SPC...

 

post-5865-0-45517700-1415565815_thumb.gi

 

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2014

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED...GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
   TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE THAT AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT...EXPANDING UPPER
   HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON TERRITORY DURING
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE...CONFLUENT
   FLOW INTO AN ELONGATING AND DEEPENING LOW EAST OF THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT A SPRAWLING STRONG SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
   SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
   INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN...AND
   SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS AIR MASS SHOULD ALSO SURGE EAST OF THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS...IN THE WAKE OF A
   MODEST SURFACE FRONTAL LOW EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY.

   BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD INTRUSION OVERSPREADS THE
   WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE GULF
   MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME FURTHER MOISTENING WITHIN A NARROW
   PRE-FRONTAL PLUME.  IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT THIS MOISTURE...
   COUPLED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER IMPULSE
   ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
   MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WEAK TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY ALSO
   CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY ABOVE THE
   SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD INTRUSION AS IT UNDERCUTS THE
   MOISTURE PLUME.  HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEMS
   NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jim, the point n click has us north of St Paul now between 12-20" storm total. A little aggressive in your eyes?

 

yea, a bit. here's what I'm thinking for this event. highest amounts in the metro will be in the northern burbs, but I wouldn't be surprised if a foot dropped in the neighborhood.

 

post-2758-0-53682800-1415567152_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MQT expecting around 2' where I am. you don't see this wording in most wsw's, and I'm in a pretty remote area. Not expecting my dirt road to be plowed Tuesday at all, and maybe even Wednesday. just hoping power doesn't go out.

THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL OVER MUCH OF THE

REGION AND POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG

WINDS. THOSE IN REMOTE AREAS SUCH AS AT A HUNTING CAMP SHOULD MONITOR

FORECASTS VERY CLOSELY AS THIS COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Climo is a good tool but have to remember that using it for specific systems can be risky and eventually you're gonna get burned.  

 

I wish I knew what the models were showing in the lead up to the October 1989 storm.  Would anyone have believed that northern/central IN were going to get 6-10" of system snow? 

 

Same here. I do remember that the forecast a couple of days beforehand was for moderate to heavy rain mixing with snow, then changing over. Instead, it was all cement.

 

So it wasn't as much a track issue, but a temp issue with that storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MQT expecting around 2' where I am. you don't see this wording in most wsw's, and I'm in a pretty remote area. Not expecting my dirt road to be plowed Tuesday at all, and maybe even Wednesday. just hoping power doesn't go out.

THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL OVER MUCH OF THE

REGION AND POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG

WINDS. THOSE IN REMOTE AREAS SUCH AS AT A HUNTING CAMP SHOULD MONITOR

FORECASTS VERY CLOSELY AS THIS COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

 

I hope you made a trip to the store!

 

Hi-res NAM showing about 28" for you!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bo is going to get crushed, should be an excellent start to the winter in the UP belts. Pretty jealous down in here, make sure to take plenty of pictures! Helpfully you have a generator may need it. LES still looks good for mid-end week for the belts.

 

I picked up about 2 inches today looks great outside right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...