dmc76 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Good call Easy call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Wish I could do a UP road trip. But I must save my vacation days for ski trips to Boyne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Wish I could do a UP road trip. But I must save my vacation days for ski trips to Boyne this map blows my mind! 21-27" system snow...?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Enjoy to those in the path of this system. 12z NAM total run snowfall 12z 4km NAM total run snowfall 12z RGEM total run snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Make sure to take some pictures for us Bo. Maybe even some videos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 This system will actually help us have a pretty nice day tomorrow with temps approaching 60. Gonna take advantage of it and get the last of the yard work crap finished for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 MQT top one day and two day snowfall totals in the November 1-15 timeframe...since 1980. One day totals 12.8" on November 6, 1988 12.2" on November 9, 1983 11.4" on November 9, 2011 10.1" on November 5, 1993 9.5" on November 10, 1997 Two day totals 18.8" on November 5-6, 1988 15.0" on November 10-11, 1997 14.6" on November 9-10, 1983 14.0" on November 4-5, 1993 13.3" on November 6-7, 1988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 12z GFS 72 hour total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 this map blows my mind!21-27" system snow...?!] Good luck Bo. The area you live does get major storms. I found the Keewenaw got the incredible LES but the area NW of Marquette got the best part of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 Easy call Climo is a good tool but have to remember that using it for specific systems can be risky and eventually you're gonna get burned. I wish I knew what the models were showing in the lead up to the October 1989 storm. Would anyone have believed that northern/central IN were going to get 6-10" of system snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Climo is a good tool but have to remember that using it for specific systems can be risky and eventually you're gonna get burned. I wish I knew what the models were showing in the lead up to the October 1989 storm. Would anyone have believed that northern/central IN were going to get 6-10" of system snow? That was an impressive system according to the data. Straight north and even a bit NW to land near Pellston, MI. Fwiw, we may be seeing a system similar to that next week. Enjoying the excitement lately. Early and abrupt "switch" to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 My latest thoughts: http://www.midwestweather.org/2014/11/crippling-winter-storm-monday.html Still think Iowa and southern wisconsin could see a couple inches as the system pulls off to the northeast. Models don't agree, but the dynamics and forcing will be in place. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 My latest thoughts: http://www.midwestweather.org/2014/11/crippling-winter-storm-monday.html Still think Iowa and southern wisconsin could see a couple inches as the system pulls off to the northeast. Models don't agree, but the dynamics and forcing will be in place. Thoughts? Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 My latest thoughts: http://www.midwestweather.org/2014/11/crippling-winter-storm-monday.html Still think Iowa and southern wisconsin could see a couple inches as the system pulls off to the northeast. Models don't agree, but the dynamics and forcing will be in place. Thoughts? Thinking some snows along the Arctic front is possible (like 11/12/13), but it will be light. 12z EURO New GFS, not budging on being the "southern" solution. I'm really interested to see how it performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 question on the grapic on your blog uw-weather. how come you have the over-lapping bands on there? (6-12, 8-14, 12-20) if anything, imho, those bands should be something like 6-9/9-12/12-18/18+ or something like 6-10/10-14/14-18/18+ ? because the way you currently have it imho looks like some complex venn diagraming. as for the snow in northern IA/southern WI, the 1-3 band is a bit generous, but not totally out to lunch on the low side, given the grid data I have seen the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Oh soooo close . The fluff will get here eventually:)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 "Marginal" Possible Thunderstorms on the docket for D3 via the SPC... DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2014 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED...GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST. ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE THAT AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT...EXPANDING UPPER HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON TERRITORY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE...CONFLUENT FLOW INTO AN ELONGATING AND DEEPENING LOW EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SPRAWLING STRONG SURFACE RIDGE. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD ALSO SURGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS...IN THE WAKE OF A MODEST SURFACE FRONTAL LOW EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD INTRUSION OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE GULF MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME FURTHER MOISTENING WITHIN A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL PLUME. IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT THIS MOISTURE... COUPLED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER IMPULSE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY ABOVE THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD INTRUSION AS IT UNDERCUTS THE MOISTURE PLUME. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Jim, the point n click has us north of St Paul now between 12-20" storm total. A little aggressive in your eyes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Jim, the point n click has us north of St Paul now between 12-20" storm total. A little aggressive in your eyes? yea, a bit. here's what I'm thinking for this event. highest amounts in the metro will be in the northern burbs, but I wouldn't be surprised if a foot dropped in the neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 MQT expecting around 2' where I am. you don't see this wording in most wsw's, and I'm in a pretty remote area. Not expecting my dirt road to be plowed Tuesday at all, and maybe even Wednesday. just hoping power doesn't go out. THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. THOSE IN REMOTE AREAS SUCH AS AT A HUNTING CAMP SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS VERY CLOSELY AS THIS COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 "Marginal" on the docket for D3 via the SPC... day3otlk_0830.gif That's just general T-strms, not a categorical risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Climo is a good tool but have to remember that using it for specific systems can be risky and eventually you're gonna get burned. I wish I knew what the models were showing in the lead up to the October 1989 storm. Would anyone have believed that northern/central IN were going to get 6-10" of system snow? Same here. I do remember that the forecast a couple of days beforehand was for moderate to heavy rain mixing with snow, then changing over. Instead, it was all cement. So it wasn't as much a track issue, but a temp issue with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 MQT expecting around 2' where I am. you don't see this wording in most wsw's, and I'm in a pretty remote area. Not expecting my dirt road to be plowed Tuesday at all, and maybe even Wednesday. just hoping power doesn't go out. THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. THOSE IN REMOTE AREAS SUCH AS AT A HUNTING CAMP SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS VERY CLOSELY AS THIS COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS SITUATION. I hope you made a trip to the store! Hi-res NAM showing about 28" for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 That's just general T-strms, not a categorical risk Gotcha thanks....I didn't mean to imply any type of enhanced risk....just that an area was outlined for storms thanks in part to this thread's system... I incorrectly interpreted the legend though with my lead in sentence....I fixed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 MPX talks about possible power outages due to the high water content of the snow weighing down power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 MPX talks about possible power outages due to the high water content of the snow weighing down power lines. this is a more east-coast-like snow we're going to get here, so it will be interesting to see the result. but i'd be more worried about heart attacks from snowshovelers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Snowfall maps put out by MQT, DLH, & MPX. 20" total are nuts for this time of November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I'd love to be in Bo's position on this one, going to be one hell of a start to the winter up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Bo is going to get crushed, should be an excellent start to the winter in the UP belts. Pretty jealous down in here, make sure to take plenty of pictures! Helpfully you have a generator may need it. LES still looks good for mid-end week for the belts. I picked up about 2 inches today looks great outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Bo I hate you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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