November 10-12 Major Early Season Winter Storm

[smoof]

MPX and GRB hoisted watches just now. 

 

NAM way north of this run.

 

The good old NAM, I am personally done with that model forever. It always shows crazy solutions that never verify. Especially in it's long range forecasts. I will be done with that model this year as i have been for a while, and blending the gfs/ggem/euro together for a more accurate forecast.

[weatherbo]

Mqt issues watch for all but the keweenaw

[wisconsinwx]

Models seem to be slowing the system down just a bit. Will give the wx offices a little more time to figure things out, but someone will be pulling the trigger soon on watches.

 

This system has been constantly slowing down, several days ago, this system on the models was progged to come through Sunday night, at the rate we're going the heaviest snow in Wisconsin will be on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

[IWXwx]

Wagons north©

 

(I just had to be the first one to use it this year)

[SchaumburgStormer]

Wagons north©

(I just had to be the first one to use it this year)

Haha, love the copyright symbol

[Gilbertfly]

00Z should have some pretty decent sampling tonight and the 12Z suite tomorrow should have full sampling by the looks of things....

 

 

 

DVN biting pretty hard on the Euro solution...

 

 

OVERVIEW...FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON VETERANS DAY FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID WINTER RATHER THAN MID NOVEMBER. THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THE ECMWF AS EVEN THE GFS/NAM HAVE SLOWED
CONSIDERABLY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/ENSEMBLE MEANS. HOWEVER...THE
GFS/NAM STILL APPEAR TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.

MONDAY...ENJOY THE LAST MILD DAY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AS SOUTHEAST WINDS PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ALONG HIGHWAY
20 TO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE HEAVY
SNOW BAND WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.

MONDAY NIGHT AND VETERANS DAY...MONDAY EVENING LOOKS DRY AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BASED ON THE
ECMWF. THE GFS/NAM DO NOT DEVELOP THIS SECOND WAVE AND FOCUS ON THE
MORE NORTHERN WAVE ACROSS IOWA AND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. AS STATED
ABOVE I WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF ON FOCUSING ON MORE OF THE SOUTHERN
WAVE. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FOR ABOUT A 6 HOUR
PERIOD ON TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO SOUTHERN LOWER MI
BY TUESDAY EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ON TUESDAY TO HIGH END
CHANCE BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN FURTHER. TOO EARLY FOR
EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
(LESS THAN 2 INCHES). BEHIND THE SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY
FALLING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE MIDWEST.
THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE DVN CWA BY EVENING.

 

 

[Geos]

00Z should have some pretty decent sampling tonight and the 12Z suite tomorrow should have full sampling by the looks of things....

 

WV4NW.gif

 

 

DVN biting pretty hard on the Euro solution...

 

Hard to argue with the EURO. haha.

Hopefully we can get something out of the Arctic blast of air though. 

 

18z GFS really hasn't budged. Bigger area of 12"+

 

[weatherbo]

mqt's first stab:

thinking some areas in the huron's will end up with 12-15" thru Wednesday due to the n/ne upslope flow.

[Geos]

mqt's first stab:

thinking some areas in the huron's will end up with 12-15" thru Wednesday due to the n/ne upslope flow.

10650055_946018522094706_8235140259445223212_n.png

 

I wouldn't doubt you will get similar amounts! It'll be nice having the orographic lift factor with that 1000' difference between the lake level and your place.

 

Here's the 4km NAM snowfall map through 60 hours for ya. I think that dot in the Huron's is 15".

 

 

The new GFS.

 

[weatherbo]

I wouldn't doubt you will get similar amounts! It'll be nice having the orographic lift factor with that 1000' difference between the lake level and your place.

 

Here's the 4km NAM snowfall map through 60 hours for ya. I think that dot in the Huron's is 15".

 

hires_snow_acc_michigan_20.png

thx for posting those!

yeah, I currently have 5.5" on the ground and Marquette (the city, not MQT) has nothing.

[Jonger]

thx for posting those!

yeah, I currently have 5.5" on the ground and Marquette (the city, not MQT) has nothing.

Nauganee usually has twice the snow of Marquette city limits.

[Geos]

Nauganee usually has twice the snow of Marquette city limits.

 

Pretty amazing since they're only 10 miles apart. It's all about the elevation. Negaunee and MQT is at 1400 ft respectively and lake level is about 600 feet.

 

Looks like MSP gets crushed on the 0z NAM.

Bo gets crushed too!

 

[Jim Marusak]

 

Looks like MSP gets crushed on the 0z NAM.

 

is it just me, or did the NAM come a bit south of the heavy band compared to the 18z run? heaviest was north of the metro with the initial band. if anything, the crushing happens with the back-side band which is stronger on this run.

[Minnesota Meso]

I posted this over at the Minnesota Forecaster site.  I know most of you will think I'm crazy using the JMA, but it's the only model that has been consistent.

 

"Ok it's time. In honor of bringing Floyd of Rosedale back to MN in a very convincing way, it time to bring a snowfall forecast to MN.

As most of you know the models have had a horrible time consolidating on a solution. Almost all of them have been taking the heaviest QPF north on one run than south on the other run. However there is one model that has been extremely consistent and that is the JMA which is run by the Japanese, normally I only use that model for seasonal forecasting but for this event I am using it. The JMA has consistently shown the highest QPF from the northern metro to St Cloud.

So lets look at the Euro. The 11/08 0z run had the heaviest snows and QPF north of the metro, but the 12z run moved a bit to the south.

The Nam was also north but with the 18z run on 11/08 it moved a bit south.

The Models that had shown the heavy snow to the south have now shifted somewhat to the north with their 18z runs.

So my thinking is that the models are now starting to converge on a JMA solution, and that includes the UKMET which is one of my favorite models.

So for the southern metro I expect 5-7" and that would included the Elko to Lakeview area. The core of metro between the 494-694 corridor should see between 8-10" including MSP which should see about 9.5". Northern Hennepin and southern Anoka county should see between 10-13". The Jackpot should be near ST Cloud to Hinckley that could see 13-16".

I reserve the right to change this forecast when the models do converge, not the location but the amounts. It's very difficult to find Skew T plots of these model's as compared to the GFS and Nam, so temp profiles thru the columns are still in question."

[Geos]

is it just me, or did the NAM come a bit south of the heavy band compared to the 18z run? heaviest was north of the metro with the initial band. if anything, the crushing happens with the back-side band which is stronger on this run.

 

Yeah a little bit south. 999mb over Milwaukee at 66 hr, then heads up towards Petosky at the same strength by 72 hr.

[Jim Marusak]

just got bumped up to a winter storm warning from Canby to Eau Clare, and Ladysmith to Morris, including St Cloud, Willmar, Redwood Falls, and the entire Twin Cities Metro.

[Geos]

On the new GFS, the low crosses near ORD at 1004mb, then 1002mb as it heads a bit north of the thumb of MI.

 

Heaviest axis of snow just south of the Twin Cities.

 

 

 

Then the regular GFS.

 

[Thunder Road]

I posted this over at the Minnesota Forecaster site.  I know most of you will think I'm crazy using the JMA, but it's the only model that has been consistent.

 

"Ok it's time. In honor of bringing Floyd of Rosedale back to MN in a very convincing way, it time to bring a snowfall forecast to MN.

As most of you know the models have had a horrible time consolidating on a solution. Almost all of them have been taking the heaviest QPF north on one run than south on the other run. However there is one model that has been extremely consistent and that is the JMA which is run by the Japanese, normally I only use that model for seasonal forecasting but for this event I am using it. The JMA has consistently shown the highest QPF from the northern metro to St Cloud.

So lets look at the Euro. The 11/08 0z run had the heaviest snows and QPF north of the metro, but the 12z run moved a bit to the south.

The Nam was also north but with the 18z run on 11/08 it moved a bit south.

The Models that had shown the heavy snow to the south have now shifted somewhat to the north with their 18z runs.

So my thinking is that the models are now starting to converge on a JMA solution, and that includes the UKMET which is one of my favorite models.

So for the southern metro I expect 5-7" and that would included the Elko to Lakeview area. The core of metro between the 494-694 corridor should see between 8-10" including MSP which should see about 9.5". Northern Hennepin and southern Anoka county should see between 10-13". The Jackpot should be near ST Cloud to Hinckley that could see 13-16".

I reserve the right to change this forecast when the models do converge, not the location but the amounts. It's very difficult to find Skew T plots of these model's as compared to the GFS and Nam, so temp profiles thru the columns are still in question."

 

The biggest reason why there's any disagreement is that there's no sampling over the North Pacific (and then by extension, the placement of the wave and the path it takes over the mountains has huge implications on exactly where lee cyclogenesis occurs, which might be better resolved by a lower grid spacing model, but not necessarily).  The Euro's DA scheme trumps the others, so I don't see any reason to distrust it and favor a model with an inferior DA scheme.  That said, it's not like the models have really been all that variable either, except for the NAM being too amplified, but that's a pretty well-known bias.

 

MSP looks golden imo.

[Geos]

CMC

 

A tad south of both GFS models. Secondary wave catches NE IA and south central WI with some snow.

 

 

The 4km NAM

 

[MNstorms]

Should be a fun day Monday. So far it looks like 6-10'' for here. Similar to 2010's first snowfall.

[Thundersnow12]

Lol too many JMA mentions

[MnWx_88]

Should be a fun day Monday. So far it looks like 6-10'' for here. Similar to 2010's first snowfall.

I assume you're talking about the December 10, 2010 blizzard. That was a doozy of a storm. Had 22 inches here in Red Wing. Took forever to dig out from that one.

[MNstorms]

I assume you're talking about the December 10, 2010 blizzard. That was a doozy of a storm. Had 22 inches here in Red Wing. Took forever to dig out from that one.

Nah it was November 13-14, 2010 now that I looked it up. I got about 12 inches here. It was also the first snowfall that season. Feels similar.

[Geos]

991mb low on the EURO east of Colorado Springs. Snow band the furthest north I've seen it on the EURO and furthest north of any other model tonight.

Heaviest snow way up north just south of DLH.

 

993mb low in NW TX and 997mb just SW of DSM at 48 hr.

 

Yeah it's way up there! Strange.

 

[Minnesota Meso]

The biggest reason why there's any disagreement is that there's no sampling over the North Pacific (and then by extension, the placement of the wave and the path it takes over the mountains has huge implications on exactly where lee cyclogenesis occurs, which might be better resolved by a lower grid spacing model, but not necessarily).  The Euro's DA scheme trumps the others, so I don't see any reason to distrust it and favor a model with an inferior DA scheme.  That said, it's not like the models have really been all that variable either, except for the NAM being too amplified, but that's a pretty well-known bias.

 

MSP looks golden imo.

 

i really don't know what  DA scheme means. However the last two years the Euro hasn't been as good with snow storms the last couple of years.  It was much better IMO 3-4 years ago.  As a matter of fact the last major snow storm here last April the Euro absolutely whiffed on it.  As a matter of fact I remember that one of the MPX forecaster wrote in a AFD that he couldn't believe what he was typing, he was running the Euro under the bus.  Based on the last two winter seasons I don't think it's king any more.  When it got it's upgrade a couple of years ago to better predict hurricanes the net result for us in the northern lats, was a somewhat degraded snowfall forecast.  Just my opinion, I'm sure other will disagree. 

[Harry]

i really don't know what  DA scheme means. However the last two years the Euro hasn't been as good with snow storms the last couple of years.  It was much better IMO 3-4 years ago.  As a matter of fact the last major snow storm here last April the Euro absolutely whiffed on it.  As a matter of fact I remember that one of the MPX forecaster wrote in a AFD that he couldn't believe what he was typing, he was running the Euro under the bus.  Based on the last two winter seasons I don't think it's king any more.  When it got it's upgrade a couple of years ago to better predict hurricanes the net result for us in the northern lats, was a somewhat degraded snowfall forecast.  Just my opinion, I'm sure other will disagree. 

 

You do know it was upgraded at the end of last winter to address those problems? Also had a tweak in the summer and just recently..

 

See this post for it's most recent verification scores..

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44784-t1534-gfs-gfs-at-13km-along-with-other-upgrades-can-be-found-here/?p=3115078

 

So i would not dismiss it..

[Thunder Road]

i really don't know what  DA scheme means. However the last two years the Euro hasn't been as good with snow storms the last couple of years.  It was much better IMO 3-4 years ago.  As a matter of fact the last major snow storm here last April the Euro absolutely whiffed on it.  As a matter of fact I remember that one of the MPX forecaster wrote in a AFD that he couldn't believe what he was typing, he was running the Euro under the bus.  Based on the last two winter seasons I don't think it's king any more.  When it got it's upgrade a couple of years ago to better predict hurricanes the net result for us in the northern lats, was a somewhat degraded snowfall forecast.  Just my opinion, I'm sure other will disagree. 

 

DA is just data assimilation.  dtk could talk your ear off about it I'm sure, whereas I'm speaking from only having had an introductory NWP course.  I believe the big difference is that the ECMWF assimilates satellite data better, and therefore, produces a better first guess over otherwise data sparse regions.

 

As far as verification scores go, the ECMWF is still consistently the best model based on forecasts of D5 500 mb geopotential:  

 

 

I guess I just don't get the fawning over the JMA, since over time it does worse than the EC/UKMET/GFS/GGEM, and there's a fairly tight consensus among those models for this storm anyway.

[weatherbo]

MQT mentions totals possibly exceeding 22" in my neck of the woods in their morning AFD..... better head to the store today.

[A-L-E-K]

North is the way to go. Ride climo.

Good call

[Chitown Storm]

My p&c has a total of 9 to 15" thru Tuesday now, upped a few inches from last night. Rates of 2"/hr expected tomorrow afternoon.