Jonger Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Jeez... Bo do you have a spare room there? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 12z NAM takes the low over/through MKE. Total run snowfall...weeniest of the weenie maps...so you know, use with caution. Also...it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Jeez... Bo do you have a spare room there? Lol Room? The property came with an old 1922 lob cabin on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Damn thing needs to stop moving north. Why? This is only November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 BTW, I like the NAM solution. We would get in on some dry slotting action with maybe some sun while areas to the north are getting pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Somewhat interesting how the Euro came into line with the NAM though. Not sure if it's a fluke or if it's really on to something. Watch the NAM start the season with a win. Didn't it already start with a win with the flakes on Oct 4th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 BTW, I like the NAM solution. We would get in on some dry slotting action with maybe some sun while areas to the north are getting pummeled. Enjoy your pointless sun and dry slot to be followed by an arctic wake up call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Be lucky to see any accumulation at this rate... oh well...season is young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Be lucky to see any accumulation at this rate... oh well...season is young. i wouldn't count yourself out yet. there is some back-side snow action that may make its way towards you. not as big of course as the main event, but it could still be quite interesting, especially if things happen like the GEM regional is hinting at. besides, we're still 36+ hours out before everything hits the fan. so there is time for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 12z GFS clownage...total snowfall through 96 hours/12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 And to complete the trifecta of silliness...the 12z 4km NAM 60 hour total snowfall map...centered on MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Ok, too much madness to start winter storm season. These models are insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Wow, 12z GGEM came in further south. Post a couple maps in a moment... First GFS parallel. Area near DLL get like 20"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 climo and trends definitely suggest this is a miss here, but for the hell of it Detroits top 10 snowstorms on or before November 15th (the #1 stretched into the 16th). There have been a handful of snowstorms, but most were long ago 01.) 9.0" - Nov 15/16, 1932 (biggest Nov snowstorm on record) 02.) 6.2" - Nov 8/9, 1921 02.) 6.2" - Nov 15, 1925 04.) 6.0" - Nov 2/3, 1966 05.) 5.7" - Nov 6/7, 1951 05.) 5.7" - Nov 13/14, 1974 07.) 4.2" - Nov 12/13, 1959 08.) 4.1" - Nov 11, 1984 09.) 3.7" - Nov 10/11, 1933 10.) 3.4" - Nov 10, 1892 How long did they last on the ground? 01.) The 1932 storm left 1"+ snowcover for 9 straight days. An awesome start to a terrible winter (this would end up being the longest continuous stretch of snowcover during the 1932-33 season ). 02.) The 1921 storm left 1"+ snowcover for 7 straight days. 03.) the 1925 storm changed to rain and was down to a T depth the next day 04.) The 1966 storm left 1"+ snowcover for 5 straight days. 05.) The 1951 storm changed to rain so much of the snow melted, but we clung on to 1"+ snowcover for 4 straight days 06.) The 1974 storm left 1"+ snowcover for 3 straight days 07.) The 1959 storm stayed on the ground 1 day 08.) The 1984 storm stayed on the ground 2 days 09.) The 1933 storm stayed on the ground 1 day 10.) The 1892 storm stayed on the ground for probably 1-2 days Moral of the story? Its just SO early. I'm not sure if you or anyone has the numbers, but just for my own curiosity, does anyone know how common big snowstorms (as in 6"+) are for Minneapolis in November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Ok, too much madness to start winter storm season. These models are insane... got to remember, some parts of this system aren't quite onshore yet in BC and other parts are. until we get better sampling on it, there still will be some variance, hence the spread between the GFS, Canadian, and NAM runs. at least we have a good general start, and imho at least consider winter storm watches for the northern sections of ARX, all of MPX, and northeastern sections of FSD FA's. special wx statements also may not be a bad thing for southern FGF, DLH, most of MKX, GRB, and southern/eastern MQT FA's to at least give a heads' up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 GGEM with two waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I'm not sure if you or anyone has the numbers, but just for my own curiosity, does anyone know how common big snowstorms (as in 6"+) are for Minneapolis in November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 One and two day 6"+ snowfall totals for MSP in the November 1-15 timeframe. One day totals of 6"+... 18.5" • 1991-11-01 8.5" • 1943-11-08 8.5" • 1940-11-12 8.2" • 1940-11-11 7.7" • 2010-11-13 Two day totals of 6"+... 19.6" • 1991-11-01/02 16.7" • 1940-11-11/12 9.6" • 1943-11-07/08 8.6" • 1940-11-12/13 8.0" • 2010-11-13/14 7.8" • 1992-11-01/02 7.5" • 1896-11-09/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 12z NAM takes the low over/through MKE. Total run snowfall...weeniest of the weenie maps...so you know, use with caution. Also...it's the NAM. 11:8 12z nam weenie.png Putting that subscription to use I see. I like it. I've been thinking about getting it myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 NAM has been bullish with closing off a 700 mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Putting that subscription to use I see. I like it. I've been thinking about getting it myself. I think it's worth it...mainly for the Euro/Euro ensemble stuff. They do have a 7 day trial, if you interested in checking it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Wow. Just days and days of lake-effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Putting that subscription to use I see. I like it. I've been thinking about getting it myself. It's worth the money, my subscription is due in about 45 days and I know I will be renewing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 No radical shifts with the 12z Euro. Maybe part I for MN and WI is ever so slightly south, but just noise really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 It's about time I pony up... I usually get the model sub from Dec through March.... this winter looks to be starting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 EURO still in the two wave camp. North of the GGEM and GFS with the first wave. Will be interesting to see if the first wave can tug down a bit more cold air in front of the second wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Models seem to be slowing the system down just a bit. Will give the wx offices a little more time to figure things out, but someone will be pulling the trigger soon on watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Models seem to be slowing the system down just a bit. Will give the wx offices a little more time to figure things out, but someone will be pulling the trigger soon on watches. looking at the discussion over at MPX, it looks like 1 more run, and they'll trigger the watches in the evening package, but the warnings will be not until the sunday afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 MPX and GRB hoisted watches just now. NAM way north of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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