Hoosier Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 NAM has a much sharper mid level wave by the end of the run. If that is reality and not some sort of NAM garbage then a northern track would make sense, but we'll see what the other models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 System looks stronger with the baroclinic zone edged north. agreed. and with the 00z NAM saying the arctic boundary now from Ottawa to Traverse City and to the Twin Cities, and the milder fronts from Pittsburgh to Chicago and back towards Omaha at T+66, i could definitely see a good extra push to squeeze the snow out fairly heavily. Now if the other models take the bait, this could be a very interesting Monday morning commute for those in southern MN. Just hope MNDot is ready for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 one other note here. before going hogwild on everything for MN and sw WI, you might want to look closer at the data, like say the grid data between 750 and 850hpa. you might see more than a bit of a fly in the ointment that if you envision it correctly, then the heavy snow bands may actually have more than a bit of a mix with sleet in there, cutting snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 In some ways but not all, this kind of reminds of the Armistice Day Blizzard of 1940. While it won't be nearly as warm in the morning the position of the surface low is intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 I wouldn't make that comparison with the Armistice Day blizzard. That's an all-time great November storm. Not to take anything away from the upcoming storm which will be impactful in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Compare the maps the location of the surface low is scary. It's so hard to compare because of limited data from back than, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 There is the reanalysis data. That trough in 1940 was a lot more amplified than this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Strong hit for the Greater Twin Cities area on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 00z GFS looks to be coming in with a somewhat sharper wave though not to the extent of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Congrats to MSP!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Looks like this weekend is 'get ready' time. Just bought the new 28" dual stage thrower. Bring it! Although I know better not to get in weenie mode 2 days out. There will be a curveball coming at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Still some signal for some lake effect precip off of southern Lake Michigan as the system goes by, though the setup doesn't look too impressive at this point (edit: actually does become better with time but with most of the activity perhaps shifting away from NW IN). Whatever falls may have a better chance of being primarily snow this time given cooler lake temps than last week and not having hurricane force winds off the lake this time (only a slight exaggeration lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 general question here. is Texas A&M's weather interface giving accurate QPF's or is there something wrong with the interface server down there in College Station? just looked at the grid data there for the 00z GFS and it's not saying anywhere near as much as the graphics are obviously showing for MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Its not even mid-November, so while jealous, I cant say Im mad. It showed snow up north before here, and it certainly wouldnt hurt to lay some snowcover down up there. On November 11, 1940, in the warm sector of the storm, Detroit had 1.10" of rain, and temps soared to 63F at 4pm before crashing to 36F at 10pm. Howling winds caused a lot of damage too. The next several days were very cold but with not a flake of snow. Nov 1940 ended up with a very snowy last week, so 9.1" makes it the 5th snowiest November anyway, despite not getting a flake from what was considered one of the harshest early season blizzards in Michigans history. By December 5th, we had logged 11.4" of snow on the season, but the rest of 1940-41 was a typical BLAH 1940s winter, season total just 26.8" despite the nice start. Im not worried about parrallels of course, as winters of the 1940s and the 2010s are two different beasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Its not even mid-November, so while jealous, I cant say Im mad. It showed snow up north before here, and it certainly wouldnt hurt to lay some snowcover down up there. On November 11, 1940, in the warm sector of the storm, Detroit had 1.10" of rain, and temps soared to 63F at 4pm before crashing to 36F at 10pm. Howling winds caused a lot of damage too. The next several days were very cold but with not a flake of snow. Nov 1940 ended up with a very snowy last week, so 9.1" makes it the 5th snowiest November anyway, despite not getting a flake from what was considered one of the harshest early season blizzards in Michigans history. By December 5th, we had logged 11.4" of snow on the season, but the rest of 1940-41 was a typical BLAH 1940s winter, season total just 26.8" despite the nice start. Im not worried about parrallels of course, as winters of the 1940s and the 2010s are two different beasts +1 It would benefit the rest of us, if there was snow cover upstream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 GGEM leaning towards the EURO camp with a weak secondary wave. More south with primary wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 0z GFS looks far NE now...more of a N central WI storm... just have to wait and see. Could get nothing or 6 inches+ out of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Lol, the EURO looks like the NAM! UP/N WI special more or less by the looks of it through 66hr. Looking like a secondary wave is present again this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Lol, the EURO looks like the NAM! UP/N WI special more or less by the looks of it through 66hr. Haha, really? That's always an interesting thing when it gives credence to the NAM in its outer periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Lol, the EURO looks like the NAM! UP/N WI special more or less by the looks of it through 66hr. Looking like a secondary wave is present again this run. Works for me.. Heck i'll take a little further north then that.. See the lake for why.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Haha, really? That's always an interesting thing when it gives credence to the NAM in its outer periods. Couple maps to give you the general idea. 72 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Well the trend is certainly my friend, but if the models keep pushing this anymore north there could be mixing issues here in MSP. Quickly becoming a Northwoods special. 06z NAM almost has the heavy stripe just south of Duluth now. MPX waiting on issuing any watches until the next model runs to see if they continue the huge north jumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Damn thing needs to stop moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 so now that the upper disturbance responsible for this storm either has made it onshore or is moving onshore this morning, how will the better sampling affect the models here? or has the better sampling as it made its way closer to shore already made this jump northwards in the models happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Damn thing needs to stop moving north. Look out Winnipeg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 NAM has pulled this stunt too many times to count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 NAM has pulled this stunt too many times to count. I've decided to completely disregard the NAM for the entire winter after its pathetic attempt at predicting storms last year. Also congrats all who get snow from this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Somewhat interesting how the Euro came into line with the NAM though. Not sure if it's a fluke or if it's really on to something. Watch the NAM start the season with a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 nam holding steady. verbatim, it dumps around 33" here with a ne/upslope off of superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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