Thunder Road Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Hey OHweather, can you post the Euro raw data for KVPZ? (Or just tell me where you get it... depending on how much it costs and the ideology of the source I might just pony up the money for it myself.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 18Z NAM showing a stripe of 1.5" QPF across the Twin Cities. Not looking as good for southern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 In case anyone wanted to see the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 How does that compare to the previous euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 How does that compare to the previous euro run? Has its big differences. 0z, 11/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I'm *supposedly* flying out of MSP Monday afternoon. This should be a fun one to watch come together. It really doesn't feel like much time has passed since we were last talking winter storms in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Media here in MSP starting to take notice. 'Gear up the snowblowers and get out the ice scrapers....cuz old man winter about to blast in BIG TIME. Live at 5.' Oy. Feels like we just got done with this madness. MPX afternoon disco seems delayed, possibly due to the new model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Now we're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 In case anyone wanted to see the Euro! 12zeuro_snowfall1107.png poor cyclone....oiy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 12z NCEP ensemble track chart... still a bit messy, but you get the gist of a solid agreement on a Central/Northern IL track into central-ish MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 WPC's latest for posterity.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Media here in MSP starting to take notice. 'Gear up the snowblowers and get out the ice scrapers....cuz old man winter about to blast in BIG TIME. Live at 5.' Oy. Feels like we just got done with this madness. MPX afternoon disco seems delayed, possibly due to the new model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The wave is still out in la la land rotating around an ULL in the pacific so no sampling, yes I'm mentioning it. Will be interesting to see the eventual track given the E-W nature of the baroclinic zone when the wave comes over the Rockies and if it digs any further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The wave is still out in la la land rotating around an ULL in the pacific so no sampling, yes I'm mentioning it. Will be interesting to see the eventual track given the E-W nature of the baroclinic zone when the wave comes over the Rockies and if it digs any further south. I'm with ya on the sampling....not for routing sake one way or another...but consensus usually comes whence key ingredients are sampled, then on to the details. Baro zone looks real fun for the "lucky" ones with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Parallel GFS ARX graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 climo and trends definitely suggest this is a miss here, but for the hell of it Detroits top 10 snowstorms on or before November 15th (the #1 stretched into the 16th). There have been a handful of snowstorms, but most were long ago 01.) 9.0" - Nov 15/16, 1932 (biggest Nov snowstorm on record) 02.) 6.2" - Nov 8/9, 1921 02.) 6.2" - Nov 15, 1925 04.) 6.0" - Nov 2/3, 1966 05.) 5.7" - Nov 6/7, 1951 05.) 5.7" - Nov 13/14, 1974 07.) 4.2" - Nov 12/13, 1959 08.) 4.1" - Nov 11, 1984 09.) 3.7" - Nov 10/11, 1933 10.) 3.4" - Nov 10, 1892 How long did they last on the ground? 01.) The 1932 storm left 1"+ snowcover for 9 straight days. An awesome start to a terrible winter (this would end up being the longest continuous stretch of snowcover during the 1932-33 season ). 02.) The 1921 storm left 1"+ snowcover for 7 straight days. 03.) the 1925 storm changed to rain and was down to a T depth the next day 04.) The 1966 storm left 1"+ snowcover for 5 straight days. 05.) The 1951 storm changed to rain so much of the snow melted, but we clung on to 1"+ snowcover for 4 straight days 06.) The 1974 storm left 1"+ snowcover for 3 straight days 07.) The 1959 storm stayed on the ground 1 day 08.) The 1984 storm stayed on the ground 2 days 09.) The 1933 storm stayed on the ground 1 day 10.) The 1892 storm stayed on the ground for probably 1-2 days Moral of the story? Its just SO early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 The wave is still out in la la land rotating around an ULL in the pacific so no sampling, yes I'm mentioning it. Will be interesting to see the eventual track given the E-W nature of the baroclinic zone when the wave comes over the Rockies and if it digs any further south. You know winter has arrived when sampling gets mentioned. But yes, it will be a while before it gets into the RAOB network so other methods of sampling will have to suffice until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Per MPX: WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY IS THAT AS THIS LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TWD THE GREAT LAKES...THERE WILL BE A SWATH OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW. ATTM... THAT SWATH IS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS GOING N TWD THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND S INTO IA. THERE IS STILL A TREND OF SEEING MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVE THE STORM TRACK N...AND SLOW DOWN THE STORM TRACK...WHICH MAY MEAN THAT THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY SHIFT FURTHER N TO NEAR THE MSP METRO. BUT...KEEP IN MIND THAT IS ONE OF MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS. THAT SAID...THE HOPWRF- TS...ECMWF...GFS AND GEM HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER N IN MODEL RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT THRU TDA...AND THE HOPWRF-TS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM. THE ONSET OF SNOW LOOKS TO START BY LATE EVE IN SW MN...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ERN MN /INCLUDING TWIN CITIES METRO/...THEN CONTINUE INTO SW WI EARLY MON MRNG. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT BY DAYBREAK MON MRNG...MUCH OF SRN MN WILL HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND SO THIS DOES LOOK TO IMPACT THE MRNG COMMUTES. SNOWFALL THEN LOOKS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...LESSENING INTO THE AFTN HOURS AS THE LOW PRES CENTER SLINGSHOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MRNG...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES LEFT IN ITS WAKE. OVERALL...HIGHEST POPS ARE IN SRN MN...INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE...WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER GOING N. IN ADDITION...HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...IN THE 6-9 INCH RANGE FOR THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT...ARE HIGHEST AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER AMOUNTS GOING N. BUT...AGAIN...WITH SUCH MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THESE AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS MAY SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 These model runs are driving me insane here in Central MI. some show 1" of snow and some show 9" IMBY. Heck of a first snowstorm to track for the season, need to get back in my snowstorm tracking game fast. Usually in the Nov-Jan timeframe the most northern tracks win out so I'll probably just get an inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 These model runs are driving me insane here in Central MI. some show 1" of snow and some show 9" IMBY. Heck of a first snowstorm to track for the season, need to get back in my snowstorm tracking game fast. Usually in the Nov-Jan timeframe the most northern tracks win out so I'll probably just get an inch or 2.northern tracks win in November, but I disagree...in December and January, especially recently, plenty of times the southern track has won out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 northern tracks win in November, but I disagree...in December and January, especially recently, plenty of times the southern track has won out. I usually lose to the north track in nov-dec. but in jan it is kind of a toss up, starts trending south mid jan imo. then most of jan-feb it is south trend ftw lol, subjective on where you live i guess though. definite seasonal trends though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 My company's main office is in La Farge...was just there...darn..looks like good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 a couple of potential twists in the mix. one of which is the Canadian regional starting to go not only more northerly, but also introducing an ice/rain mix to the southern end of this storm, which may add a lot of complications to QPF forecasts. not saying i totally believe it, given how cold this air mass heading into MN and WI will be. but it is something to maybe think about a bit. especially since it puts the potentially heavy snow back towards i-94. http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/regional/2014110718/2014110718_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_nwac@pn@003_054.png http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/regional/2014110718/2014110718_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_QPFTYPES@006_054.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Snippet from afternoon disco from IWX. Potential for accumulating snow along the IN/MI state line? I'm not buying it, unless the forecaster is talking about very light accumulations. OF NOTE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A SHARPLY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUEOF WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST WELL THROUGH AT LEAST DY10 AND FNTL WAVELIFTING UP ACRS THE OH VALLEY. THERMAL PROFILES TOUGH TO CALL EARLYTUE PENDING EXACT LOW TRACK AND ASSOCD SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONEPLACEMENT HWVR PRIOR SHRA/SHSN MENTION STILL HOLDS W/POTENTIAL FORACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL HIGH ACRS NW/NRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TOSTRONGEST FGEN SIGNAL AND FASTER LL CAA ONSET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 00z NAM is looking "robust" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Not surprising that the 0z NAM is the most NW solution at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 System looks stronger with the baroclinic zone edged north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Baroclinic zone actually looked a little further south early across MN/WI but stronger wave = stronger WAA and there's the NW amped and juiced solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Low travels from near Waterloo to Sheboygan on this run. Northwoods special. Pretty NAM-like to be amped up and juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 How's this for a thermal gradient...that's about a 40C spread between what's in southern Canada and southwestern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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