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November 10-12 Major Early Season Winter Storm


Hoosier

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To give some idea of what we may be looking at with respect to climo, it looks like Milwaukee and Madison have each only had 2 storms of 6"+ in the first half of November since records have been kept (Milwaukee also has 1 in October).  I may have missed something as I checked quickly so someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

 Nov 2-3 1966?

 

Whatever that was dropped 10" here and 13.0" just east of here in Albion..

 

The other possibility is Nov 6-7 1951? This was a 7.8" event here..

 

Was looking at something else and came across those.

 

 

 

I  believe Euro came back south some..

 

 

It did.. Tracks across Indiana into Ohio vs up into Michigan..

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To give some idea of what we may be looking at with respect to climo, it looks like Milwaukee and Madison have each only had 2 storms of 6"+ in the first half of November since records have been kept (Milwaukee also has 1 in October).  I may have missed something as I checked quickly so someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

For MKE.... 

 

11/5/1896: 14.6" and 11/9/1926: 6.0"

 

Couple other events that had more than 3", otherwise very rare.

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climo says this is a slam dunk to go WELL north of here...but climo has failed us beautifully the last year, so who knows. im so ready for snow but then all of those stats about how the last 3 decades you DONT want a good Nov snow for a good winter stick in my head. But the reality of the superstition is....this November snow is not going to dictate the winter of 2014-15. I would LOVE it, but will be surprised if it doesnt go north. Pleasanty surprised of course :)

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With the nam now in range, the models are pretty much locked into a northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, through Wisconsin snow track.  DLL is lookin' good for a nice early snowfall.  I don't mind getting missed by this one because I still have garden work to do and leaves to collect.  I would like to see some decent light snow fall, though.

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:yikes:

 

attachicon.gifeesh.JPG

 

A little irresponsible if you ask me. No one is going to click on the explanation, and that explanation was pretty poorly written too.

 

 

The media is the worst. Weenie snowfall maps...Polar Vortex coming to get us...blah blah blah.

 

Chicago media is a special animal.  Philly is much more restrained than Chi town... they always contour their own accum maps, never just show raw model output.

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Haven't followed this too closely...checking the clown maps...nice skid mark across southwest WI.

 

Get your shovels out! Or your snowblower, which ever you have!

 

---

@ Snow Freak - Yeah climatology has gone out the window for the last year! I've heard a big snowfall before Thanksgiving is bad and prepare for a boring winter, but that's probably a myth.

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I think we're pretty much locked in on the general area at this point.  Despite it being early season and climo saying go north, this setup is not conducive for an appreciable shift north imo...for one, we don't have a negatively tilted system (not even close) and also what's going on in Canada should serve to stop this from shifting much farther north.  But we'll see if model handling of the key players changes.

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With the nam now in range, the models are pretty much locked into a northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, through Wisconsin snow track.  DLL is lookin' good for a nice early snowfall.  I don't mind getting missed by this one because I still have garden work to do and leaves to collect.  I would like to see some decent light snow fall, though.

Thats a dangerous statement :lol:

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FWIW, looks like Green Bay has had five 6"+ snowstorms from Nov 1-15 (1889, 1890, 1896, 1916, 1985).  Almost a sixth, and 6.0" actually fell on Nov 5-7, 1988, but there was about a 36 hour gap between precip and it looks like the snow on the 7th was from a different weather system so I didn't count it.

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