wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's funny that storm was mentioned, because it also trended southward at the last minute... Those bowling ball west to east type storms definitely have that potential more than a sharp cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Hey guys, nice to see some familiar faces from last year when I drove y'all insane. Macomb looks like it's not gonna get hit, so that sucks. Hoping for a southward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I believe Euro came back south some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 To give some idea of what we may be looking at with respect to climo, it looks like Milwaukee and Madison have each only had 2 storms of 6"+ in the first half of November since records have been kept (Milwaukee also has 1 in October). I may have missed something as I checked quickly so someone correct me if I'm wrong. Nov 2-3 1966? Whatever that was dropped 10" here and 13.0" just east of here in Albion.. The other possibility is Nov 6-7 1951? This was a 7.8" event here.. Was looking at something else and came across those. I believe Euro came back south some.. It did.. Tracks across Indiana into Ohio vs up into Michigan.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 North is the way to go. Ride climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Big storm = winter cancel wrt stats Or perhaps its a continuation of the last winter.... Time will tell !! PS. I'm not ready yet !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 To give some idea of what we may be looking at with respect to climo, it looks like Milwaukee and Madison have each only had 2 storms of 6"+ in the first half of November since records have been kept (Milwaukee also has 1 in October). I may have missed something as I checked quickly so someone correct me if I'm wrong. For MKE.... 11/5/1896: 14.6" and 11/9/1926: 6.0" Couple other events that had more than 3", otherwise very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 6z GFS came in heavier on the top snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 geos is gonna get buried backyard glacier from mid-november through mid-march? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 La Crosse - Oshkosh - Alpena looks best, IMO. MKE and MSN should pick up something too, but outside the sweet spot. Can't wait the first nuclear run of the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 La Crosse - Oshkosh - Alpena looks best, IMO. MKE and MSN should pick up something too, but outside the sweet spot. sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I don't need to get buried but a few inches would be nice for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 A little irresponsible if you ask me. No one is going to click on the explanation, and that explanation was pretty poorly written too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 no chance^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The media is the worst. Weenie snowfall maps...Polar Vortex coming to get us...blah blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 climo says this is a slam dunk to go WELL north of here...but climo has failed us beautifully the last year, so who knows. im so ready for snow but then all of those stats about how the last 3 decades you DONT want a good Nov snow for a good winter stick in my head. But the reality of the superstition is....this November snow is not going to dictate the winter of 2014-15. I would LOVE it, but will be surprised if it doesnt go north. Pleasanty surprised of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 With the nam now in range, the models are pretty much locked into a northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, through Wisconsin snow track. DLL is lookin' good for a nice early snowfall. I don't mind getting missed by this one because I still have garden work to do and leaves to collect. I would like to see some decent light snow fall, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Haven't followed this too closely...checking the clown maps...nice skid mark across southwest WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 eesh.JPG A little irresponsible if you ask me. No one is going to click on the explanation, and that explanation was pretty poorly written too. The media is the worst. Weenie snowfall maps...Polar Vortex coming to get us...blah blah blah. Chicago media is a special animal. Philly is much more restrained than Chi town... they always contour their own accum maps, never just show raw model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Meanwhile, on the 6z GFS, we got a nice LES consolation prize. 850 mb temps of -10 C over the lake in early-mid November.... not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Haven't followed this too closely...checking the clown maps...nice skid mark across southwest WI. Get your shovels out! Or your snowblower, which ever you have! --- @ Snow Freak - Yeah climatology has gone out the window for the last year! I've heard a big snowfall before Thanksgiving is bad and prepare for a boring winter, but that's probably a myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 This will be an MSP-GRB event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Based on the relative consistency of the models I wouldn't be surprised to see watches posted by tomorrow morning for Northern IA and far Southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 I think we're pretty much locked in on the general area at this point. Despite it being early season and climo saying go north, this setup is not conducive for an appreciable shift north imo...for one, we don't have a negatively tilted system (not even close) and also what's going on in Canada should serve to stop this from shifting much farther north. But we'll see if model handling of the key players changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 With the nam now in range, the models are pretty much locked into a northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, through Wisconsin snow track. DLL is lookin' good for a nice early snowfall. I don't mind getting missed by this one because I still have garden work to do and leaves to collect. I would like to see some decent light snow fall, though. Thats a dangerous statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Not stating north, south, east, west, rain, snow, cats, or dogs.... But...decent sampling of vorts involved should begin by 00Z NOV-09 and perhaps better sampling 12Z NOV-09 ... via todays 12Z GFS simply in regards to timing of possible sampling in the NW... 12Z NOV-09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 EURO has an over running event with 5-10" of snow from Minnesota and across the northern half of WI, then on Tuesday spins up another low that drops 1-3" from northeast MO into western MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 EURO has an over running event with 5-10" of snow from Minnesota and across the northern half of WI, then on Tuesday spins up another low that drops 1-3" from northeast MO into western MI. That's a twist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 FWIW, looks like Green Bay has had five 6"+ snowstorms from Nov 1-15 (1889, 1890, 1896, 1916, 1985). Almost a sixth, and 6.0" actually fell on Nov 5-7, 1988, but there was about a 36 hour gap between precip and it looks like the snow on the 7th was from a different weather system so I didn't count it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 EURO has an over running event with 5-10" of snow from Minnesota and across the northern half of WI, then on Tuesday spins up another low that drops 1-3" from northeast MO into western MI. Well that certainly changed just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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