wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yeah the 12z GEM going crazy. Slowly liking this website gem snow.png I think this site's maps may usurp Weatherbell, there must be 1.5"QPF to legitimately get those totals in S Minnesota/N Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 In the spirit of comparison, here's the 18z NCEP ensemble tracks. Most shifted south, probably due to its operational counterpart staying south. On a related note (and not exactly surprising given the trend), forecast track error as of 11/06 0z has the GFS with highest error before it's overtaken by the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Miss having you a stones throw from mi casa....best of luck up there with this system and the remainder of the winter! Thanks man! Yeah it's weird being up here. I lived in Chicagoland all of my life so MN is is totally new. Gotta figure out the weather here in the Twin Cities.....where the best storm track is for snow, biggest snow months are Dec and Mar unlike Chicago, etc. Will miss our little micro forums updates there in the SW burbs. Not too many people on this site from up this way. Good luck this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Latest from MPX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Just for posterity and lulz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Just for posterity and lulz... eta.totsnow192.gif Yeah, like that's going to happen... Highly doubt THAT will verify, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yeah, like that's going to happen... Highly doubt no chance THAT will verify, though. Fixed that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The GFS is north. It will be hard to really spin up a system and head NE into the blocking but a good wave like some guidance is showing, running along the tight baroclinic zone has the potential to produce some hefty fronto banded, long duration snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 00Z GFS barely goes sub 1000...sets up some more LE showery action though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 DGEX doesn't look that far fetched. I mean, it's much tamer than the GGEM which went nuts. One thing to watch for is whether this can close off in the mid levels. If not, then it may make it more difficult to get the really high totals. OTOH, good banding signals being implied so you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 0z GFS. Madison really gets dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Interestingly enough, the parallel GFS shifted south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Parallel GFS a tick south, but not much. Edit: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The GFS is north. It will be hard to really spin up a system and head NE into the blocking but a good wave like some guidance is showing, running along the tight baroclinic zone has the potential to produce some hefty fronto banded, long duration snow totals. So you're thinking very little, if any, shift to the NW from here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 So you're thinking very little, if any, shift to the NW from here? No I didn't say that. I meant it will be hard to spin up a strong system given the mid/upper pattern and the blocking. It will also depend where the baroclinic is/how far south or north, when the wave ejects over it. The gradient itself is very impressive and any decent wave will promote enough WAA up and over front for some good E-W fronto snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 No I didn't say that. I meant it will be hard to spin up a strong system given the mid/upper pattern and the blocking. It will also depend where the baroclinic is/how far south or north, when the wave ejects over it. The gradient itself is very impressive and any decent wave will promote enough WAA up and over front for some good E-W fronto snows Yeah, that's probably why we end up with a medium-strength overrunning system. The orientation reminds me so far of a weaker version of December 19, 2008 for those that remember that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yeah, that's probably why we end up with a medium-strength overrunning system. The orientation reminds me so far of a weaker version of December 19, 2008 for those that remember that storm.I remember that storm well. Dropped 8.2" here & 7.9" at DTW, & was actually the biggest storm of that snowy winter (couple other very close ones), but what stood out is that 6" fell in the first 3 hours of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 GGEM is going to be wild again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I remember that storm well. Dropped 8.2" here & 7.9" at DTW, & was actually the biggest storm of that snowy winter (couple other very close ones), but what stood out is that 6" fell in the first 3 hours of that storm. Wow, did anyone report thundersnow in Michigan from that one? We got 12" here, but I think it was mostly drawn out over 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 GGEM is going to be wild again. and maybe south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 and maybe south Pretty similar, in fact both the 12z and 0z pretty much track the low right across the point where Iowa, Illinois and Missouri meet, a mb or two stronger this time. A fantasy outcome for S Wisconsin snow lovers pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Pretty similar, in fact both the 12z and 0z pretty much track the low right across the point where Iowa, Illinois and Missouri meet, a mb or two stronger this time. A fantasy outcome for S Wisconsin snow lovers pretty much. It ends up south later. Surface low tracks to Cleveland on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 S WI/ARX cwa gets dumped on by the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 S WI/ARX cwa gets dumped on by the GGEM. ggem_110714_0Z.png Maue and his darn color schemes. Just screams hype being that bright doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 To give some idea of what we may be looking at with respect to climo, it looks like Milwaukee and Madison have each only had 2 storms of 6"+ in the first half of November since records have been kept (Milwaukee also has 1 in October). I may have missed something as I checked quickly so someone correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Maue and his darn color schemes. Just screams hype being that bright doesn't it? Yeah the neon pink catches the eye for sure. I guess every source has there own choice in colors. Personally I like the instant weather map color scheme the best. --- It seems MSN usually isn't denied in this sort of setup. haha~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 00Z GFS barely goes sub 1000...sets up some more LE showery action though The 00z GFS and GFS -parallel are nearly the same at hour 108, when it shows snow in MI. 1010 or 1011mb in Indiana. Borderline temps for Chicago -Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 To give some idea of what we may be looking at with respect to climo, it looks like Milwaukee and Madison have each only had 2 storms of 6"+ in the first half of November since records have been kept (Milwaukee also has 1 in October). I may have missed something as I checked quickly so someone correct me if I'm wrong. Also to put in perspective, Milwaukee hasn't even recorded 9" of snow in the last eight Novembers combined, and the snowiest November since 1998 is 3.0" in 2008. Our average for November used to be 3.7 or 3.8", now it is down to 2.4" since the criteria for the years has been adjusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 To show the baroclinic zone. Freezing line is in between the bright light blue and the faint pink colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I remember that storm well. Dropped 8.2" here & 7.9" at DTW, & was actually the biggest storm of that snowy winter (couple other very close ones), but what stood out is that 6" fell in the first 3 hours of that storm. It's funny that storm was mentioned, because it also trended southward at the last minute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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