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November 10-12 Major Early Season Winter Storm


Hoosier

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Seems like we have some decent model agreement on a system in this timeframe with usual differences in track and such.  Looks like there could be enough cold air to result in a stripe of accumulating snow somewhere in the region.  May be bad memory but it seems like it's been a while since there's been a decent synoptic snow event to track in the first half of November.

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Hoosier:  Just a thought, because this storm has the potential to cover more than one sub forum which one should take lead on this?  GL/OV or Central/Western.  I would suggest this one.  You may want to get with the Central/Western mods and get their input.  Thanks in advance.  Euro, GEM, Parallel GFS are all further North than the OP GFS.  Jama looks north as well

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Hoosier:  Just a thought, because this storm has the potential to cover more than one sub forum which one should take lead on this?  GL/OV or Central/Western.  I would suggest this one.  You may want to get with the Central/Western mods and get their input.  Thanks in advance.  Euro, GEM, Parallel GFS are all further North than the OP GFS.  Jama looks north as well

 

 

I don't know if anyone really needs to take the lead.  The portion affecting the C/W subforum can be discussed in one of the threads there (or start a new one) and the portion affecting the Lakes/OV can be discussed here.

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Getting some attention from LOT. Side note, End of 18z NAM looks like it would spin up a nice system with that strong wave diving into the lower 48 in the pac NW

 

OF GREATER CONCERN AND MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE...IS A SWATH OF 0.25  
TO 0.5 INCHES OF QPF ALL THE MODELS SHOW IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON  
TO TUESDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS ON  
MONDAY AND TRACKING EAST/NORTHEAST...RIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST IL  
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER  
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE IS SURFACE LOW. BASED ON THIS TRACK...  
HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...WITH A MIX  
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY EVENING. THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MIX  
ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME  
SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...IS  
POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS WELL  
AS HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS POSSIBLE EVENT IS...ITS TOO EARLY FOR  
ANY SPECIFICS AS MINOR CHANGES COULD HAVE LARGE IMPACTS TO THE  
FORECAST.  

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Just wanted to share this. Henry is talking about how the cold air coming in is 'nothing unusual for November standards' and is normal for this time of the year. IDK what this guy is smoking TBH...FWW

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/the-cold-is-coming-but-warmth-ahead-of-the-frontsee-video/36943053

People still go to AccuWeather?

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Old school EMC cyclone track charts, FWIW.

 

GFS ensembles showing disagreement, though you might be able to make out a grouping of members in north/central IL.

track.aeperts.2014110612.east_coast.sing

 

Good thing I got the cabin up north closed up a couple weeks ago, looks like a hefty snowstorm up that way.

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MPX talks about 2 distinct possibilities: a plowable snow, or being shut out completely with the Monday/Tuesday system. Something interesting to monitor over the weekend as I pull the dock from the lake.

 

Miss having you a stones throw from mi casa....best of luck up there with this system and the remainder of the winter!

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ARX put this little blurb out.

 

 
Accumulating Snow Looking Likely - Monday - Monday Night

A low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the area for Monday and Monday night.  At this time, the heaviest snow looks to be south of Interstate 94.  While there is certainty that this snow will occur, the amounts and location of the heaviest snow is not.  Those with travel plans during this time period should monitor the weather closely through the weekend.

 

 

 
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Old school EMC cyclone track charts, FWIW.

 

GFS ensembles showing disagreement, though you might be able to make out a grouping of members in north/central IL.

 

Good thing I got the cabin up north closed up a couple weeks ago, looks like a hefty snowstorm up that way.

 

Almost all of them took a track south of Milwaukee and most south of the WI/IL border, a large number of them show at least a decent hit from Dubuque to Madison and Milwaukee/Sheboygan.  I hope the consensus of the GFS Ensembles/GFS Para/GEM stays around, and don't cave to the north, I'd feel a lot better if they stayed steady.

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