Hoosier Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Seems like we have some decent model agreement on a system in this timeframe with usual differences in track and such. Looks like there could be enough cold air to result in a stripe of accumulating snow somewhere in the region. May be bad memory but it seems like it's been a while since there's been a decent synoptic snow event to track in the first half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 lol that's my new favorite gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Alek posting the weenies flying is the best gif I think and he timed it perfectly. Good thread starter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 A couple of clown maps for your viewing pleasure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Alek posting the weenies flying is the best gif I think and he timed it perfectly. Good thread starter here. Don't want my mojo from last winter? I see how it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Don't want my mojo from last winter? I see how it is. Oh I do but Hoosier will always be a top starter after GHD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Called my insurance company and had the full coverage activated on my sleds, because the models look.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah the 12z GEM going crazy. Slowly liking this website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z Euro is north...surface low over Chicago at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z Euro is north...surface low over Chicago at 120 hours. The gradient at 96hrs is absolutely insane. 850mb temps of 20 deg C in nrn KS and -12 deg C in ND. Then the cold air dump afterwards is more insane stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z Euro is north...surface low over Chicago at 120 hours. GFS the southern outlier, as usual. Heckuva cold shot after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Hoosier: Just a thought, because this storm has the potential to cover more than one sub forum which one should take lead on this? GL/OV or Central/Western. I would suggest this one. You may want to get with the Central/Western mods and get their input. Thanks in advance. Euro, GEM, Parallel GFS are all further North than the OP GFS. Jama looks north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Hoosier: Just a thought, because this storm has the potential to cover more than one sub forum which one should take lead on this? GL/OV or Central/Western. I would suggest this one. You may want to get with the Central/Western mods and get their input. Thanks in advance. Euro, GEM, Parallel GFS are all further North than the OP GFS. Jama looks north as well I don't know if anyone really needs to take the lead. The portion affecting the C/W subforum can be discussed in one of the threads there (or start a new one) and the portion affecting the Lakes/OV can be discussed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Getting some attention from LOT. Side note, End of 18z NAM looks like it would spin up a nice system with that strong wave diving into the lower 48 in the pac NW OF GREATER CONCERN AND MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE...IS A SWATH OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF QPF ALL THE MODELS SHOW IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND TRACKING EAST/NORTHEAST...RIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST IL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE IS SURFACE LOW. BASED ON THIS TRACK... HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...WITH A MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY EVENING. THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MIX ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS WELL AS HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS POSSIBLE EVENT IS...ITS TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFICS AS MINOR CHANGES COULD HAVE LARGE IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Just wanted to share this. Henry is talking about how the cold air coming in is 'nothing unusual for November standards' and is normal for this time of the year. IDK what this guy is smoking TBH...FWW http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/the-cold-is-coming-but-warmth-ahead-of-the-frontsee-video/36943053 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Just wanted to share this. Henry is talking about how the cold air coming in is 'nothing unusual for November standards' and is normal for this time of the year. IDK what this guy is smoking TBH...FWW http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/the-cold-is-coming-but-warmth-ahead-of-the-frontsee-video/36943053 People still go to AccuWeather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 People still go to AccuWeather? LOL, nah I honestly don't but just wanted to check out what Henry has to say about all the upcoming events LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 MPX talks about 2 distinct possibilities: a plowable snow, or being shut out completely with the Monday/Tuesday system. Something interesting to monitor over the weekend as I pull the dock from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Could go for a south shift right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 18z GFS has the PV positioned further west across srn Canada at 75hr causing the baroclinic zone to be a bit further south across the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 So the 18z GFS was more or less the same, it may be ticked everything a bit further SE and weaker at the most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 18z GFS 18z GFS-parallel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 As much as I would love to get snow out of this, climo and most models say north, I would guess a nice swath of snow for northern IA/southern MN into central and northern WI and the northern part of MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Old school EMC cyclone track charts, FWIW. GFS ensembles showing disagreement, though you might be able to make out a grouping of members in north/central IL. Good thing I got the cabin up north closed up a couple weeks ago, looks like a hefty snowstorm up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 A sign of things to come this coming winter? I do know that early November winter storms do have a tendency of producing cement snow. November 13, 2010 and November 8, 2011 are examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 MPX talks about 2 distinct possibilities: a plowable snow, or being shut out completely with the Monday/Tuesday system. Something interesting to monitor over the weekend as I pull the dock from the lake. Miss having you a stones throw from mi casa....best of luck up there with this system and the remainder of the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 ARX put this little blurb out. Accumulating Snow Looking Likely - Monday - Monday Night A low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the area for Monday and Monday night. At this time, the heaviest snow looks to be south of Interstate 94. While there is certainty that this snow will occur, the amounts and location of the heaviest snow is not. Those with travel plans during this time period should monitor the weather closely through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Old school EMC cyclone track charts, FWIW. GFS ensembles showing disagreement, though you might be able to make out a grouping of members in north/central IL. Good thing I got the cabin up north closed up a couple weeks ago, looks like a hefty snowstorm up that way. Almost all of them took a track south of Milwaukee and most south of the WI/IL border, a large number of them show at least a decent hit from Dubuque to Madison and Milwaukee/Sheboygan. I hope the consensus of the GFS Ensembles/GFS Para/GEM stays around, and don't cave to the north, I'd feel a lot better if they stayed steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 A few stragglers, but the vast majority of the 12z Euro EPS members keep the track south of the IL/WI line. "Best" snowfall with the mean would be approx La Crosse to Oshkosh to Gaylord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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