buckeye Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 What is your average? Never thought PDII would be topped so quickly.. I know right. Thing about PDll is I kinda feel like I'm cheating by throwing it in there. If we're talking 24 hour snowfalls, it doesn't qualify. That one came in two slugs. First was overnight Friday and second came in later on Sunday. Saturday was, weird, it was an all day virga storm. Radar was lit up all day but no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I know right. Thing about PDll is I kinda feel like I'm cheating by throwing it in there. If we're talking 24 hour snowfalls, it doesn't qualify. That one came in two slugs. First was overnight Friday and second came in later on Sunday. Saturday was, weird, it was an all day virga storm. Radar was lit up all day but no snow. Yeah it never stopped up the road where i was but still was only light stuff falling during the lull.. Worst thing about that was Cleveland and not issuing a warning till a foot had already fallen. What a epic bust that was for them. Ofcourse it was expected to miss to the south only a day or two before hand. Still i enjoyed it as it was my first big dog this side of the apps and helped make up for the Christmas FAIL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah it never stopped up the road where i was but still was only light stuff falling during the lull.. Worst thing about that was Cleveland and not issuing a warning till a foot had already fallen. What a epic bust that was for them. Ofcourse it was expected to miss to the south only a day or two before hand. Still i enjoyed it as it was my first big dog this side of the apps and helped make up for the Christmas FAIL.. oh man, you lived here during xmas eve '02? I still have nightmares over that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 top was March '08, I think the official was 21", but local lollipops of up to 26" As far as the rest, you may want to page our local weather statistician extraordinaire, aka jbcmh When I lived there in 04 Polaris area I remember we had a pretty significant snow 15"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 oh man, you lived here during xmas eve '02? I still have nightmares over that one. Yep.. For me it wasn't as bad as it still was my first white Christmas.. Was only a few inches and then the famed WTOD ( which i learned quickly about from you ) and the dryslut hit. Talk about having the rug pulled out at the last possible second. I was there for both 02-03 and 03-04.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 When I lived there in 04 Polaris area I remember we had a pretty significant snow 15"+ I live very close to Polaris. You're probably remembering the December storm. That had a crazy gradient. The eastern edge of Franklin county had all ice, and the western edge had like a foot of snow. I had about 7" of snow and about a 1/3" of ice at the end. Further west, closer to Dayton and eastern Indiana, I think there were 30+" lollipops, while further east of Columbus it was all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Last years 14" for me was the biggest I can remember followed by easily the harshest cold I've ever faced. I'll never forget coming outside at night on the second day after the storm to -20 degree weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I live very close to Polaris. You're probably remembering the December storm. That had a crazy gradient. The eastern edge of Franklin county had all ice, and the western edge had like a foot of snow. I had about 7" of snow and about a 1/3" of ice at the end. Further west, closer to Dayton and eastern Indiana, I think there were 30+" lollipops, while further east of Columbus it was all rain.Yea that was probably the one...heck of a storm! Areas that received all ice got hit pretty hard...I remember Lewis Center where I was living was without power for a few daysValentines day 03 was another significant one 11-16" for most of central Ohio...I left right before the March blizzard in 08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 0z ''GFS" takes the 23rd-24th low from the gulf of mexico to Jacksonville FL, to an out to sea fiishy storm. blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 This pattern as its showing itself to be generally is not going to be conducive for a lot of the subforum to receive any appreciable snows. Something will have to drastically change in February and beyond to bring the snows and I, frankly, just don't see anything good happening for the next two to three weeks. Beyond that as we get some changeable conditions across the Midwest, likely between Arctic shots of air, we may be able to pull something good through. But if I were hedging my bets the best snows the rest of the Winter will be Southeast of a Kansas City- Detroit zone. And I seriously hope that I am wrong but I am a bit fearful. We'll get a few clippers here and there in this area but I just don't see a big threat of organized snow storms for most of us in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Northern Illinois. And I'll be the first one to admit I thought we'd see a fairly decent snow season across most of the Central/Eastern Midwest... so far for January we are off and running good compared to the norms but there just doesn't appear to be to much more in the pipeline for the month around here and that means we'll likely finish below normal when all is said and done. The biggest concern might be the near record cold coming at the very tail end of the month, that is some mean lookin' cold but without a decent/fresh snowpack the cold might underperform.... at least I hope that it does. Temps in the mid/upper 20s below zero generally are good for nothing and cause to many problems. Sorry I am just rambling. Its also been interesting to note this Winter that in November (before Winter technically I know) those snow systems performed a bit better than expected, nothing in December here, and the couple systems we've had in January have been a bit of a dud... certainly performed a bit worse than I expected. I just don't want a dud for February, at least we will be off to a cold looking February as it stands now... just want some moisture and organized system to go with it. Okay back to your regularly scheduled programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 What is your average? Never thought PDII would be topped so quickly.. Louisville's 1981-2010 normal is 12.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 This pattern as its showing itself to be generally is not going to be conducive for a lot of the subforum to receive any appreciable snows. Something will have to drastically change in February and beyond to bring the snows and I, frankly, just don't see anything good happening for the next two to three weeks. Beyond that as we get some changeable conditions across the Midwest, likely between Arctic shots of air, we may be able to pull something good through. But if I were hedging my bets the best snows the rest of the Winter will be Southeast of a Kansas City- Detroit zone. And I seriously hope that I am wrong but I am a bit fearful. We'll get a few clippers here and there in this area but I just don't see a big threat of organized snow storms for most of us in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Northern Illinois. And I'll be the first one to admit I thought we'd see a fairly decent snow season across most of the Central/Eastern Midwest... so far for January we are off and running good compared to the norms but there just doesn't appear to be to much more in the pipeline for the month around here and that means we'll likely finish below normal when all is said and done. The biggest concern might be the near record cold coming at the very tail end of the month, that is some mean lookin' cold but without a decent/fresh snowpack the cold might underperform.... at least I hope that it does. Temps in the mid/upper 20s below zero generally are good for nothing and cause to many problems. Sorry I am just rambling. Its also been interesting to note this Winter that in November (before Winter technically I know) those snow systems performed a bit better than expected, nothing in December here, and the couple systems we've had in January have been a bit of a dud... certainly performed a bit worse than I expected. I just don't want a dud for February, at least we will be off to a cold looking February as it stands now... just want some moisture and organized system to go with it. Okay back to your regularly scheduled programming. depressing stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We get into this discussion EVERY winter. We are not in big storm climo territory here. Indianapolis, Columbus and Pittsburgh all probably see bigger storms than southeast Michigan. I would guess that Milwaukee and Madison are equally in the toilet for big storm climo, we are too far north and west. Minneapolis occasionally gets those long drawn out stalled systems, but even they don't get big storms, usually 4-8 inch and they are down for the count. We get into this discussion MULTIPLE times every winter lol. All it takes is one 360-hr GFS fantasy to trigger it. What KILLS me is the obsession (from people who dont even care about stats no less) over the OFFICIAL site getting 12"+. That magical number of 12". 11.8" = meh, weve been here many times before...12.3" = BURIED . Its even funnier coming after our historic winter of last year. So I am supposed to think that after seeing 15-22" of snow with 3-4 foot drifts on the ground in my suburban backyard for MONTHS last winter (to say nothing of the 6+ foot drifts out in the country) that I have not lived until I have seen a run-of-the-mill 11.5" storm turn into one of those incredible 12.5" storms? Now, once we are getting into a 15-18"+ storm, THEN you are talking, but using this "how many times the official climate site has had a storm of 12.0"+" to gauge an areas storm climo is about as accurate as using someones w2 in a year they won the lottery to gauge their annual income. Yes Detroit has officially had 4 storms of 12"+ since 1914 while Indy has had 5. Detroit has also had 12 storms of 11"+ while Indy has had 10, and Detroit has had 17 storms of 10"+ while Indy has had 11. Who knows what surrounding areas had in ANY of those storms? Any storm of, say, 8"+ at the official site might mean the area had 12"+ amounts. Whats of FAR greater interest should be the lack of big storms period from 1940-1970 locally vs 1880-1939 & 1970-now. The infrequent nature of significant snowfalls in that era compared to before and after is mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 My gut feeling is that for many of us the next viable snow prospect will be at the end of the incoming arctic sure as the ridge from out west tries to fight in. Could get some more decent clippers running along that again at that point. So probably sometime in very late Jan or early Feb. I say to ma nature just keep your lame/underperforming sw systems and just feed us a big dose of clippers/hybrid clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 My gut feeling is that for many of us the next viable snow prospect will be at the end of the incoming arctic sure as the ridge from out west tries to fight in. Could get some more decent clippers running along that again at that point. So probably sometime in very late Jan or early Feb. I say to ma nature just keep your lame/underperforming sw systems and just feed us a big dose of clippers. it would seem to be more reliable to have a clipper train, tho less exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 I still think a bit of it does involve luck though and this place is a perfect example of that and thus see Jan 67 and then 78 and more freaky is they were on the same day. As someone else once pointed out a few years back the lakes probably play a role be it extra help with totals or track. This place has had a crap load of 12+ events just since i have moved here. Madison i bet has had a similar fate? Off the top of my head, 12+ since i moved here.. Jan 2005 aka super clipper Dec 2007 March 2008 Jan 2009 Dec 2009..This was lake enhanced though Feb 2010 Feb 2011 Jan 2014 Top 3 are Jan 67 with 28.6" Jan 78, 25.1" Jan 79 18" If i get the time at some point i'll look up back to 1950 and then some day go back to 1896 which is as far back as records go for here. I also think it has to do with micro-climates. Like you I have had several 12"+ events even some 15"+ events. Several of the same ones you had but a couple different ones. As an example the Fenton to White Lake area in SE Michigan does very well while just a few miles north (Flint) and a few miles SW (Howell) and then some mile SE (Farmington Hills) seem to struggle to hit the 12" mark with the same storms Fenton to While Lake get 12"+. Watching radar I have noticed certain things seem to happen commonly in certain areas. Due to the repeatable nature of this I tend to think the micro-climate has a good amount to do with it (note: I am not saying it will happen 100% of the time as other dynamic do come into play). No perfect magic wand here but I do think certain areas are prone to 'better' results than other areas even when talking just a few miles apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 it would seem to be more reliable to have a clipper train, tho less exciting I just want 1 juicy sw system loaded and locked on WI, UP. I love the day before a snowstorm when the high clouds begin to filter in and slowly lower and thicken to the point the sun is a dim spot in the sky barely visible. Lake effect is great and dependable but I really need/want a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We get into this discussion MULTIPLE times every winter lol. All it takes is one 360-hr GFS fantasy to trigger it. What KILLS me is the obsession (from people who dont even care about stats no less) over the OFFICIAL site getting 12"+. That magical number of 12". 11.8" = meh, weve been here many times before...12.3" = BURIED . Its even funnier coming after our historic winter of last year. So I am supposed to think that after seeing 15-22" of snow with 3-4 foot drifts on the ground in my suburban backyard for MONTHS last winter (to say nothing of the 6+ foot drifts out in the country) that I have not lived until I have seen a run-of-the-mill 11.5" storm turn into one of those incredible 12.5" storms? Now, once we are getting into a 15-18"+ storm, THEN you are talking, but using this "how many times the official climate site has had a storm of 12.0"+" to gauge an areas storm climo is about as accurate as using someones w2 in a year they won the lottery to gauge their annual income. Yes Detroit has officially had 4 storms of 12"+ since 1914 while Indy has had 5. Detroit has also had 12 storms of 11"+ while Indy has had 10, and Detroit has had 17 storms of 10"+ while Indy has had 11. Who knows what surrounding areas had in ANY of those storms? Any storm of, say, 8"+ at the official site might mean the area had 12"+ amounts. Whats of FAR greater interest should be the lack of big storms period from 1940-1970 locally vs 1880-1939 & 1970-now. The infrequent nature of significant snowfalls in that era compared to before and after is mind boggling. What's funny is that the 360 GFS has a MASSIVE snowstorm crushing the entire UP on Jan 31st, I'll possibly be in the UP for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 i've had like half a dozen 1'+ events in the last decade alone, just destroying detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Northern/Western suburbs of Detroit has done fairly well with 12"+ events. 5 since 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 i've had like half a dozen 1'+ events in the last decade alone, just destroying detroit Northern/Western suburbs of Detroit has done fairly well with 12"+ events. 5 since 1999. ORD has had 3 in the last decade, half of what alek has had. And DTW has had 1 since 1999, a fifth of what dmc has had. Hell, Im sure the blizzard of '99 had more than the 11.3" at DTW that the rotten faa measured, but its whats in the books. This is my point exactly. People get hung up on the official snowfall total and not the storm itself. Just looking at the official numbers, there have been many more warning criteria snowstorms in the last decade at Detroit than Chicago, so its actually quite possible that there have been more storms that have impacted SE MI with an area of 12"+ snows than NE IL the last decade. No one will know unless they go thru pns's for every single storm of course. The bottom line is this is a region of frequent snow, NOT one of widespread massive storms. Since 2004 DTW: 12”+ - 1 10”+ - 5 8”+ - 12 6”+ - 26 Since 2004 ORD: 12”+ - 3 10”+ - 6 8”+ - 8 6”+ - 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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