buckeye Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Doubt that will be Feb. Its looking more and more like December was a blip in a pattern thats working on 2 years. the cold wants to hang around more than the warm. A cold, white, winter with below normal snowfall is a distinct possibility. Thats a combo we have not had in some time. I call those the, 'but she has a great personality', winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yeah, but Ive always said the periods of nothingness would just be too hard for me to handle and not worth the reward of the occasional noreaster. Hell look at this winter here: November - colder and snowier than normal December - mild and snowless January - colder and snowier than normal About a 5 week period of snowless torture and we were pulling our hair out. Stuff like that happens in most east coast winters. At least for those 5 weeks for the most part where modeled to be duds. While I will agree the 168+ hour models were wildly off the modules within 120 hours said 'zzzzzz's' and didn't have several major storms modeled that ended up screwing us. Heck there were really not major storms anywhere during that period other than the Grinch Storm. Oddly those crappy 5 weeks (while yes I was completely weather bored) did not bother me all that much as I was completely prepared & expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Doubt that will be Feb. Its looking more and more like December was a blip in a pattern thats working on 2 years. the cold wants to hang around more than the warm. A cold, white, winter with below normal snowfall is a distinct possibility. Thats a combo we have not had in some time. A couple significant storms in Feb/March and suddenly most areas are not below normal snowfall. Snowfall is fickle and it only takes one major event to change things. Keep the cold around and I like our chances to still end near or even above normal. I call those the, 'but she has a great personality', winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 A couple significant storms in Feb/March and suddenly most areas are not below normal snowfall. Snowfall is fickle and it only takes one major event to change things. Keep the cold around and I like our chances to still end near or even above normal. ` oh its certainly possible. Not to mention, we are not even that below normal. in fact, Nov & Jan have ABOVE normal snowfall, its just December's nightmare (and the overall lack of big storms) that give this winter its black eye. The reason I said that is because I actually had a feeling of such a winter before winter began. You may recall, my gut was going for a low snow winter all along. First back in spring/summer when a supposed super Nino was on the way, I was thinking ohhh no, torch and low snowfall. Then once that failed, there were a lot of analogs popping up in certain winter forecasts that would imply cold/dry. One of those winters where the temps are below normal as is the snowfall, but if things are synced up right it can be an excellent winter for overall snowcover. We had quite a few of those in the past (I can think of several in the 1940s and 1960s) but it has been a long time since we have had one (1995-96 would be the closest, but even that wasnt the greatest for snowcover, so i really cannot recall such a winter). Snowfall has been above normal in 7 of the last 10 winters and the 3 that it wasnt were all mild winters. I bit the bait like most everyone else later in Fall on another harsh winter for cold AND snow due to all those winter forecasts, but the reality is this winter will be nowhere NEAR last year, but at the same time a lot nicer for winter lovers than, say, 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Thought this was pretty cool - A giant sea turtle made out of snow in Minnesota. Must be good snow sculpting weather up there! http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/story/27793726/3-minnesotan-brothers-create-massive-snow-turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I haven't seen an accumlulating snowfall since November 16th when we got 3.5 inches. Hoping to get another one soon. Last week we spent 100 hours below freezing and couldn't even squeeze out a flurry. Hoping the winter gets better after we get into the 50's Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If in the extremely unlikely event that a 00z EURO solution happens, I would like to have the storm thread dedicated to me please (given my constant whining over getting an epic snowstorm). Only four events of 12"+ the city of Detroit has seen in the last 100 years. You might be whining for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Only four events of 12"+ the city of Detroit has seen in the last 100 years. You might be whining for a while pathetic climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Only four events of 12"+ the city of Detroit has seen in the last 100 years. You might be whining for a while Probably, especially when knowing that every other winter weather record known to mankind has been unequivocally destroyed to pieces in the city of Detroit over the past 10 years (and even the worst flood on record has occurred first in a city that's far from flood prone) except being hit by an epic snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 There's only been 8 calendar days on record with a foot or more of snow at the Chicago climate site and only (edit): 21 two day periods with a foot or more. Really big events are pretty rare in the Midwest outside of the lake belts. If you want more frequent chances at big dogs but also big year to year volatility, the coastal Northeast is where to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 pathetic climo The amount of 12"+ events in several major cities in Midwest has seen since 1914 Chicago 15 Kansas City 6 Minneapolis 11 Milwaukee 14 Madison 18 Indianapolis 6 Flint 10 Toronto 22 St.Louis 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Toronto 22 So many 12.1s and 12.2s on that list though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 So many 12.1s and 12.2s on that list though. If u go 13.0"+ Detroit has seen two and Toronto 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 My post was mostly tongue-in-cheek. The intention wasn't to start a discussion on how awful Detroit's big snowstorm climo is compared to all other midwestern cities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 My post was mostly tongue-in-cheek. The intention wasn't to start a discussion on how awful Detroit's big snowstorm climo is compared to all other midwestern cities... how long til Josh shows up to hit you upside the head with a bag of stats lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Only four events of 12"+ the city of Detroit has seen in the last 100 years. You might be whining for a while We get into this discussion EVERY winter. We are not in big storm climo territory here. Indianapolis, Columbus and Pittsburgh all probably see bigger storms than southeast Michigan. I would guess that Milwaukee and Madison are equally in the toilet for big storm climo, we are too far north and west. Minneapolis occasionally gets those long drawn out stalled systems, but even they don't get big storms, usually 4-8 inch and they are down for the count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 There is a thread for all that Detroit City Climo Banter crap: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44824-winter-1415-banter-complaint-thread/page-29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 We get into this discussion EVERY winter. We are not in big storm climo territory here. Indianapolis, Columbus and Pittsburgh all probably see bigger storms than southeast Michigan. I would guess that Milwaukee and Madison are equally in the toilet for big storm climo, we are too far north and west. Minneapolis occasionally gets those long drawn out stalled systems, but even they don't get big storms, usually 4-8 inch and they are down for the count. nah, Milwaukee and Madison are much better, as is Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 pathetic climo For big storms... I think Chicago crushes us. More of a quirky luck thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 For big storms... I think Chicago crushes us. More of a quirky luck thing though. lake michigan usually tacks on a few inches during our classic panhandle hook big dog setup, that's probably the difference for us and Milwaukee over Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Alek is right, Lake Michigan is the difference for a lot of our foot plus storms vs Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 We get into this discussion EVERY winter. We are not in big storm climo territory here. Indianapolis, Columbus and Pittsburgh all probably see bigger storms than southeast Michigan. I would guess that Milwaukee and Madison are equally in the toilet for big storm climo, we are too far north and west. Minneapolis occasionally gets those long drawn out stalled systems, but even they don't get big storms, usually 4-8 inch and they are down for the count. Columbus doesn't get that many, really. March 2008, February 2003, April 1987... those were the 3 most recent. Before that, I'd have to search to find one. Between 1950 and 1987, I believe there was only 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Columbus doesn't get that many, really. March 2008, February 2003, April 1987... those were the 3 most recent. Before that, I'd have to search to find one. Between 1950 and 1987, I believe there was only 1. Columbus seems to pickup moisture from the Atlantic coast during transfer events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 how long til Josh shows up to hit you upside the head with a bag of stats lol. Even the bag of stats show how much our big storm climo sucks (see dmc76's posts above). As great as things may be here in every other winter weather category, that's our Achilles heel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 lake michigan usually tacks on a few inches during our classic panhandle hook big dog setup, that's probably the difference for us and Milwaukee over Detroit Well even taking Chicago and Milwaukee out of the equation, the non-LES cities (Toronto, Madison, Minneapolis, etc.) dmc76 listed earlier blow us out of the water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well even taking Chicago and Milwaukee out of the equation, the non-LES cities (Toronto, Madison, Minneapolis, etc.) dmc76 listed earlier blow us out of the water... Many of the 1 foot plus storms I can think of in Toronto (Jan 1999, Jan 2004, Dec 2007) had lake enhancement from Lake Ontario. Actually that pretty much explains it. Madison/Minneapolis are geographically better positioned for bomb like storms. We'd have probably worse 1 foot+ climo than Detroit, given how we're even more proximal to that Appalachian dead-zone, but Lk Ontario bails us out. If Detroit had its own lake to get "direct" lake effect from (that is, not imported from Lk Michigan) your numbers wouldn't be so crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 A better correlation locally to Milwaukee/Chicago would be Port Huron. I bet their numbers correlate much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 A better correlation locally to Milwaukee/Chicago would be Port Huron. I bet their numbers correlate much better. don't include Alpena. The death curse for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 don't include Alpena. The death curse for snowfall. Alpena is weird, they usually miss out on storms that hit here or hit the UP, and they don't get much lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Keep the climo nonsense out of my thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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