michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 You've caught on quick. It's always funny how some posters disappear when cold/snow are happening, but once the models show a warm up...they can't wait to post. So lame. Yup. Not to mention they greatly embellish how warm the warmup is forecasted to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Yup. Not to mention they greatly embellish how warm the warmup is forecasted to be. Not really but ok. Expressing my displeasure in the recent runs. I could pass on this thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It does appear that we are entering a more quiet period. It does look boring after tonight's event for the following 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 You've caught on quick. It's always funny how some posters disappear when cold/snow are happening, but once the models show a warm up...they can't wait to post. So lame. live 2 troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not really but ok. Expressing my displeasure in the recent runs. I could pass on this thaw. I wasnt really referring to you. Just agreeing with Chicagowx's comment in general. Its been that way for years. Look no further than last month. Some thought December would be some inferno torch and it was just mundane mild & unfortunately snowless. I could pass on it too, probably more than most, because Im about snowcover and this clearly isnt an active winter like last year. January thaws are more than common - they are to be expected. The problem is, in some more boring winters, you may lose a snowcover then go back to cold and dry but not replenish the snow. Last year had a Jan thaw but it is almost forgotten because there was so much snow we didnt lose it all, then all it did was snow snow snow right after. Then you have winters like 2007-08, where there were constant thaws, but constant snowstorms. This winter has too boring of a feel to not enjoy every snowfall, so Im going to try to not worry about a thaw thats over a week out, magnitude unknown, when more snow is coming tonight . That said lol, Id be lying if I said I didnt look at the models...it appears the GEM is more bullish on the thaw then the Euro/GFS. Not a surface torch by any means, but definitely more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Ice bowl 2 fail. Its barely below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It does appear that we are entering a more quiet period. It does look boring after tonight's event for the following 10 days. For sure (relatively speaking)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Yup. Not to mention they greatly embellish how warm the warmup is forecasted to be.The one thing that makes me laugh is the word 'torch' as it is used on here to describe and day that is not below normal. I always considered a torch to be well above / 15F+ / approaching record level temps but on this forum a torch is any day that is not below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 You've caught on quick. It's always funny how some posters disappear when cold/snow are happening, but once the models show a warm up...they can't wait to post. So lame. time to defend the trolls, trolls need love too First off this is the complaint thread, which would explain the absence of trolls when it's cold/snowy. Actually wouldn't they be more deserving of being called a troll if they were in here posting when it was cold and snowy? Second, on the other end of this coin are the polyannas who shake their fingers at those not dancing in the street over a dusting of snow or temps that weren't as warm as were projected. For godsakes we are the midwest and lakes, let's act like we've been there. We're not the MA forum making a 20 page superthread over a potential 5 day car-topper. We have posters here who are staring down the barrel of about 10" of snow to date, (and probably thru the last week in January), and are still trying to turn that turd into a snickers bar. Then they want to serve it to the trolls and get ticked off when the trolls won't eat it. Like it or not....to date...unless you are a temp departure whore, this winter has blown moose balls. Our most glorious victory was a weak clipper with under-performing snow ratios. Had it not been for that freakish November shot of winter, many of us here would still be in single digit snowfall totals. None of us are here to track cold shots. And if we are, it's just to lay the ground work for snow. If the snow doesn't come, the cold shot fails and might as well have been a torch, at least I can work in a torch. If I end up with 15" of snow for the season but every month has a negative temp departure....that's a failed winter period. In fact you could argue it's a bigger fail then if we had positive temp departures. Could this winter turn around? Absolutely...but I'm talking...here...now. In the meantime I'll pass on that snickers, something doesn't smell right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Gotta love the monster fantasy snow storm depicted on the Sunday night 00z GFS for MO, IL, and IN at 348 hrs. What dreams may await. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 time to defend the trolls, trolls need love too First off this is the complaint thread, which would explain the absence of trolls when it's cold/snowy. Actually wouldn't they be more deserving of being called a troll if they were in here posting when it was cold and snowy? Second, on the other end of this coin are the polyannas who shake their fingers at those not dancing in the street over a dusting of snow or temps that weren't as warm as were projected. For godsakes we are the midwest and lakes, let's act like we've been there. We're not the MA forum making a 20 page superthread over a potential 5 day car-topper. We have posters here who are staring down the barrel of about 10" of snow to date, (and probably thru the last week in January), and are still trying to turn that turd into a snickers bar. Then they want to serve it to the trolls and get ticked off when the trolls won't eat it. Like it or not....to date...unless you are a temp departure whore, this winter has blown moose balls. Our most glorious victory was a weak clipper with under-performing snow ratios. Had it not been for that freakish November shot of winter, many of us here would still be in single digit snowfall totals. None of us are here to track cold shots. And if we are, it's just to lay the ground work for snow. If the snow doesn't come, the cold shot fails and might as well have been a torch, at least I can work in a torch. If I end up with 15" of snow for the season but every month has a negative temp departure....that's a failed winter period. In fact you could argue it's a bigger fail then if we had positive temp departures. Could this winter turn around? Absolutely...but I'm talking...here...now. In the meantime I'll pass on that snickers, something doesn't smell right. Okee dokee. Everyone is entitled to their opinions. Enjoy the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Don't want to step on Alek's toes but....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Don't want to step on Alek's toes but....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz I'm too busy enjoying a couple tenths of LES so feel free to take over until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'm too busy enjoying a couple tenths of LES so feel free to take over until tomorrow. Aye aye captain. Happy shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 haven't touched a shovel in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Okee dokee. Everyone is entitled to their opinions. Enjoy the rest of winter. Hey I wasn't picking on YOU! I was just making a general statement defending those of us with our glasses half empty....I think us trolls have a good argument this winter. That being said, let's all enjoy the rest of the winter and hope for a turn around...SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 haven't touched a shovel in years I figured. Highrise living. Personally can only take it in small doses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Could be worse: Boston 4.7" on the season and no hope in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Could be worse: Boston 4.7" on the season and no hope in sight. Its an all out or nothing kind of town but when they get it. Look out. Puts most of us to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Could be worse: Boston 4.7" on the season and no hope in sight. So much for the earlier east coast storminess being a good sign for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Agreed. It was just another January day in Michigan let not act like we have not been there before. They should just bring back the Travelers Advisory as it was used anytime it would snow 1-4". Your perspective is the correct one. Fwiw, DTX actually does issue SWS's that are analogous to the old traveler's advisory. Other offices might too, I don't know. Issuing a headline for 3" of snow just because maybe some people feel like they can't drive correctly without one is like issuing tornado warnings for F0 tornadoes. The NWS doesn't need to sound the strongest alarms they have just because some weather happened. If they hype up climatologically common events like the media does or like weather weenies do, then they are doing their job wrong because they are not being objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Your perspective is the correct one. Fwiw, DTX actually does issue SWS's that are analogous to the old traveler's advisory. Other offices might too, I don't know. Issuing a headline for 3" of snow just because maybe some people feel like they can't drive correctly without one is like issuing tornado warnings for F0 tornadoes. The NWS doesn't need to sound the strongest alarms they have just because some weather happened. If they hype up climatologically common events like the media does or like weather weenies do, then they are doing their job wrong because they are not being objective. So... it's what they're supposed to be doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 So... it's what they're supposed to be doing? The NWS has moved toward a tiered tornado warning system that places considerably less emphasis on low end tornadoes like F0. There are some in the industry who think they deserve nothing more than a severe thunderstorm warning since the public's response to a tornado is disproportionate to the threat caused by low-end tornadoes. I am one of those people. 80 mph wind is 80mph wind. The fact that it moves in a circle is novelty. Save tornado warnings for when they matter. Anyway, that is tangential. The point was that issuing a headline for 3+" of snow in 8 hours is incredibly stupid (regardless of my choice of analogy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The NWS has moved toward a tiered tornado warning system that places considerably less emphasis on low end tornadoes like F0. There are some in the industry who think they deserve nothing more than a severe thunderstorm warning since the public's response to a tornado is disproportionate to the threat caused by low-end tornadoes. I am one of those people. 80 mph wind is 80mph wind. The fact that it moves in a circle is novelty. Save tornado warnings for when they matter. Anyway, that is tangential. The point was that issuing a headline for 3+" of snow in 8 hours is incredibly stupid (regardless of my choice of analogy) The problem with warning a severe warning on a suspected tornado is no matter what the radar shows there is a chance that ground truth could be stronger than the representation. There have been times where we have seen circulations that look like garbage on radar and you come to find out a EF-1 touched down. I'd rather err on the side of caution than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The NWS has moved toward a tiered tornado warning system that places considerably less emphasis on low end tornadoes like F0. There are some in the industry who think they deserve nothing more than a severe thunderstorm warning since the public's response to a tornado is disproportionate to the threat caused by low-end tornadoes. I am one of those people. 80 mph wind is 80mph wind. The fact that it moves in a circle is novelty. Save tornado warnings for when they matter. Anyway, that is tangential. The point was that issuing a headline for 3+" of snow in 8 hours is incredibly stupid (regardless of my choice of analogy) But that asks forecasters to discriminate between EF0 and EF1 tornadoes in real-time. I know many who are not willing to do this. Anyway, you're right, this is a tangential argument, but let me throw my support behind the WWA crowd. There was a good band of 3-5" through some highly-populated areas and it fell right up to morning commute time. That's not entirely insignificant, regardless of whether or not it's climatological. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 But that asks forecasters to discriminate between EF0 and EF1 tornadoes in real-time. I know many who are not willing to do this. Anyway, you're right, this is a tangential argument, but let me throw my support behind the WWA crowd. There was a good band of 3-5" through some highly-populated areas and it fell right up to morning commute time. That's not entirely insignificant, regardless of whether or not it's climatological. That is hard, but discriminating betweenF0/1 and F4/5 is easy. That is why they moved to a tiered system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Hey Hoosier, do you feel like moving our convo re: tornado warnings to the banter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 That is hard, but discriminating betweenF0/1 and F4/5 is easy. That is why they moved to a tiered system. Right, but that's not the point. Even a low-end EF1 can be deadly for mobile homes and campgrounds, for example. And it's effectively impossible to differentiate between an EF0 and an EF1 from radar, which is why setting a low threshold for TORs is a bad idea and why you're analogy isn't the greatest. Likewise, 3-5" of snow matters to a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Its an all out or nothing kind of town but when they get it. Look out. Puts most of us to shame. Yeah, but Ive always said the periods of nothingness would just be too hard for me to handle and not worth the reward of the occasional noreaster. Hell look at this winter here: November - colder and snowier than normal December - mild and snowless January - colder and snowier than normal About a 5 week period of snowless torture and we were pulling our hair out. Stuff like that happens in most east coast winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 If February is warm and snowless........... Anyway, it is just a really unactive winter with boring winter storms even when its cold. 2008-9 wasn't the king of large scale activity, but it at least provided some good fun at times. Doubt that will be Feb. Its looking more and more like December was a blip in a pattern thats working on 2 years. the cold wants to hang around more than the warm. A cold, white, winter with below normal snowfall is a distinct possibility. Thats a combo we have not had in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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