michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 December 2013 was certainly a nice winter month, but it was nothing extraordinary. A year ago today was when it all began. New Years was rang in with a snowstorm and it didnt stop. From Dec 31st to Feb 1st, a span of 33 days, DTW saw 44.7" of snow ( normal Oct-Apr snow is 42.7") enroute to a record 94.9" season. Oh where is my time machine.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 both the 12z euro and ggem both appear to be putting together another rain event next weekend!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I never did have a good feeling about this winter. But I didn't it would be quite as bad as it's been overall thus far. Still time left obviously to get some of it back, but I've resigned myself to a clunker for LAF. Fact of the matter is, the majority of winters here pretty much suck. That's just climo...and it's a b sometimes. Long live 2013-14! You'll always hold a special place in my weenie heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Winter arrives big time next week. I'm kinda optimistic about the clipper. At least it'll feel like it for a couple of days. Hopefully we can get lucky and scrape out a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I never did have a good feeling about this winter. But I didn't it would be quite as bad as it's been overall thus far. Still time left obviously to get some of it back, but I've resigned myself to a clunker for LAF. Fact of the matter is, the majority of winters here pretty much suck. That's just climo...and it's a b sometimes. Long live 2013-14! You'll always hold a special place in my weenie heart. yea I know I'm getting bashed for my pessimism, but honestly I'd rather expect and look for the worst in a winter like this, and hope to be surprised from time to time rather than continually be bashed over the head with disappointment. It appears we are entering a very cold 5 day period which kicks off with a rainstorm and ends with a rainstorm. (see above). I've seen these kind of winters where everything that can go wrong does....this just has that feeling. Maybe we'll get a couple inches with the clipper. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 At least it'll feel like it for a couple of days. Hopefully we can get lucky and scrape out a little snow. Going to get cold anyway but it could be enhanced if we lay down some snow. I could easily envision highs in the single digits and lows well below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I will say that only the GFS has that 1/5/14 to 1/6/14 clipper (as in anything beyond a whiff to the SW or a strip of just light snow) at this point... Ahem, cough, cough *2015*, cough. And yes, it's going to snow. I have confidence that the clipper will produce something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 both the 12z euro and ggem both appear to be putting together another rain event next weekend!!!! The winter may suck the whole way through, the winter may have a very nice period...but one things for certain....anything any model says will happen "next weekend" will change 50 times by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 50˚+ for both of us is doable. Open the windows and let out the funk for a little bit. You too Mike. I hope 2015 is a great one for you. I am not looking forward to 50°, then 0° a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 I never did have a good feeling about this winter. But I didn't it would be quite as bad as it's been overall thus far. Still time left obviously to get some of it back, but I've resigned myself to a clunker for LAF. Fact of the matter is, the majority of winters here pretty much suck. That's just climo...and it's a b sometimes. Long live 2013-14! You'll always hold a special place in my weenie heart. yea I know I'm getting bashed for my pessimism, but honestly I'd rather expect and look for the worst in a winter like this, and hope to be surprised from time to time rather than continually be bashed over the head with disappointment. It appears we are entering a very cold 5 day period which kicks off with a rainstorm and ends with a rainstorm. (see above). I've seen these kind of winters where everything that can go wrong does....this just has that feeling. Maybe we'll get a couple inches with the clipper. Who knows. I think this is one of the major reason why we are not in full on F it all rants. More or less we were prepared for the worst even in the midst for some great winter forecast (I guess we must have just viewed them as porn) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I think this is one of the major reason why we are not in full on F it all rants. More or less we were prepared for the worst even in the midst for some great winter forecast (I guess we must have just viewed them as porn) Yeah, I don't get caught up in seasonal forecasts. Fun to read, but it's such a tough gig to get right. I remember people screaming torch before last winter because of the fall snow cover thing and resultant +AO. And of course look at how the actual weather/winter turned out in 2013-14. And now we almost have the opposite case in 2014-15. Oh well, sh*t happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I am not looking forward to 50°, then 0° a few days later. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Ahem, cough, cough *2015*, cough. And yes, it's going to snow. I have confidence that the clipper will produce something. Oops!!! And yes, I agree that snowflakes will fall from the sky somewhere in the subforum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I'm not trying to open a but all of the talk about ratios in the clipper thread got me to thinking (dangerous, I know) that clipper snow is similar to LES, aka fake snow. In other words, the amounts are inflated, but quickly settles. Therefore, snow depth measurements are not indicative of actual depth a day or two later, even though temps remain below freezing. Hence my assertion the clippers are stat padders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I'm not trying to open a startingtrouble.jpg but all of the talk about ratios in the clipper thread got me to thinking (dangerous, I know) that clipper snow is similar to LES, aka fake snow. In other words, the amounts are inflated, but quickly settles. Therefore, snow depth measurements are not indicative of actual depth a day or two later, even though temps remain below freezing. Hence my assertion the clippers are stat padders. This topic has been discussed many times, and Im not sure I really get it. Say you get 4" of fluffy snow. There is 4" on the ground at the end of the storm. Thats 4" of snow, theres no inflation about it. Now, 2 days later, it may have settled to 2.5", but it was still 4" when it fell. That is no different than a noreaster dumping however much it does and then settling/melting off many inches the next day. I just dont get the whole inflates or stat pads thing. What exactly are these stats padding? To me that sounds like its giving this year an unfair advantage to previous years. And thats obviously false. Every year sees them, some more than others, and every year it goes into the season total. Some years more than others, thats why theres snowfall and snow depth. Its just how the weather works. Dont get me wrong, I think its funny when Joe Blow from the UP will say "pshhh 95 in Detroit? Big deal we got 300" last year in the snowbelt of the UP". Yet the scenes in town looked exactly like they do in the UP in an average winter. Thats why snowfall and snow depth are seperate measurments and to me all 3 are equally important to be observed and recorded PROPERLY. Liquid equivalent, snowfall, and snow depth, 3 different stats. And I admit it grates on my nerves when some stations dont measure one or two of the three properly. Snowcover stats dont interest many here, its more about snowfall, but its really interesting to look at the different years and see how different things can be. Some years with above normal snowfall didnt have great snowcover, and likewise some years with average, if not slightly below avg, snowfall have excellent snowcover. Makes me think that while we may look at the season total and think, oh this year (more snowfall) was the much better winter (more snowcover) but the public who experienced it at the time may think of the colder, whiter winter as more harsh even though less snow fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I'm not trying to open a startingtrouble.jpg but all of the talk about ratios in the clipper thread got me to thinking (dangerous, I know) that clipper snow is similar to LES, aka fake snow. In other words, the amounts are inflated, but quickly settles. Therefore, snow depth measurements are not indicative of actual depth a day or two later, even though temps remain below freezing. Hence my assertion the clippers are stat padders.I've mentioned before, I've seen 40:1 lake effect and I've seen 12:1 lake snow. Not all lake effect is fluffy air filled. This season, it's been more the wetter, lower ratio snow. I invite you to see 12" of 25:1 snow fall, I guarantee you wouldn't refer to it as fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah I know that it has been discussed over and over. I guess that I got spoiled by all of the lower ratio snows of last winter that didn't sublimate or settle much and just stuck around. Bo, if I could get 12" of 40:1 down here, I'd be in heaven. The problem is I get 3" that turns into 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah I know that it has been discussed over and over. I guess that I got spoiled by all of the lower ratio snows of last winter that didn't sublimate or settle much and just stuck around. Bo, if I could get 12" of 40:1 down here, I'd be in heaven. The problem is I get 3" that turns into 1".yep, snow settles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Snow settles period. Heck a glacier in the end is thousands of inches settled/compacted snow with whatever else has fallen from the sky. I never heard of LES being called 'fake' snow until I got onto these weather boards. In all honesty the people calling LES snow are just jealous weather geeks who wish they lived in a LES belt but will NEVER admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm not trying to open a startingtrouble.jpg but all of the talk about ratios in the clipper thread got me to thinking (dangerous, I know) that clipper snow is similar to LES, aka fake snow. In other words, the amounts are inflated, but quickly settles. Therefore, snow depth measurements are not indicative of actual depth a day or two later, even though temps remain below freezing. Hence my assertion the clippers are stat padders. Snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Snow is snow. Saturday looks like it's going to be pretty dreary for us. Could get a brief spike in warmth but I'm afraid it would hold off until late day. It's warm aloft but the pressure gradient is weak during the day so we don't exactly have raging southerly flow at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 both the 12z euro and ggem both appear to be putting together another rain event next weekend!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Saturday looks like it's going to be pretty dreary for us. Could get a brief spike in warmth but I'm afraid it would hold off until late day. It's warm aloft but the pressure gradient is weak during the day so we don't exactly have raging southerly flow at the surface. Eh, I have no doubt we'll get to 50˚+ for awhile. Temps always overachieve versus guidance when a low runs northwest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Eh, I have no doubt we'll get to 50˚+ for awhile. Temps always overachieve versus guidance when a low runs northwest of us. No way it happens during daylight imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 No way it happens during daylight imo. Sure, I'll buy that. But we torch in the evening. Also, I'd give us a 25% chance of hitting 60˚. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Sure, I'll buy that. But we torch in the evening. Also, I'd give us a 25% chance of hitting 60˚. Chucking em deep, eh? I'd say almost no shot at 60 unless we quickly trend toward a wound up solution going farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Chucking em deep, eh? I'd say almost no shot at 60 unless we quickly trend toward a wound up solution going farther west. 0z runs thus far aren't helping my case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Fyp Sure, I'll buy that. But we torch in the evening. Also, I'd give us a 25% chance of hitting 60˚. FWIW, my point is calling for 39°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm not trying to open a startingtrouble.jpg but all of the talk about ratios in the clipper thread got me to thinking (dangerous, I know) that clipper snow is similar to LES, aka fake snow. In other words, the amounts are inflated, but quickly settles. Therefore, snow depth measurements are not indicative of actual depth a day or two later, even though temps remain below freezing. Hence my assertion the clippers are stat padders. Eh, measurements are frequently not representative of what's on the ground. Even in low ratio snow, it's heavy and wet and 10" measured can be 3.5" of snowpack a few hours later. A blizzard can dump 20" of snow but the wind will leave patches of bare ground. Measurements of snow as it falls have little to do with snowpack and/or post-storm fun factor much of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 So much fun a year ago at this time. The hybrid frisbee storm had finished up on this day...and the Jan 5-6 storm and following arctic outbreak was right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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