cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Tomorrow will make one month since the last measurable snow. Hard to get that long of a stretch this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Random thoughts/banter. Im not a forecaster, so I go on gut instincts. All spring and summer, I was certain winter 2014-15 would suck tremendously. Mainly because of last years historic winter, but lets not forget how much of a record pace snow has been falling for a DECADE. I know climate like the back of my hand. I have seen this OVER and OVER again. Severe winter is followed by mild, low snow winter. A few of the hardest winters (1880-81 & 1981-82) were followed by ungodly warm, snowless winters. But even less extreme instances showed the chances of a crappy winter after an exceptional one was high. And they DO NOT get any more exceptional/hard/severe than 2013-14. So throw in the insistence that a Super-Nino was on the way, and it was all but sealed. Then the almanac came out in early Fall. Another severe winter on the way. Then everyone and his brother issued winter outlooks showing cold/snowy winter. The super Nino was failing miserably. Slllowly I came around to the idea that winter might not suck so bad after all, and a record November cold snap and snowy weather in Nov made me feel even better. Well, a snowless, boring December later....I started to rethink my original gut instinct. We are SO due for a crudder. But this isnt the type of winter where everyones getting snow and we are in a screwhole...no ones getting it in December. And its certainly not some torch type of winter that my "gut" was expecting. Its just for some reason the snow isnt coming for most. It has that feeling of "unchartered waters". Time to ditch the old gut instinct and go to the 19th century style of looking out the window and taking the weather day by day. Its going to be a LONG winter, and I dont know if I mean that in a good or bad way. I don't know if we're "due" for a crappy winter, because I don't think things work out that way. Having 2, 3, 4 or 5 winters in a row that were decent is not exactly unheard of. However, you do raise a point about recent snowfall. It's definitely picked up over recent years. Here are the average seasonal snowfall totals for the past 4 decades in Columbus: 1980s: 26.1 1990s: 26.6 2000s: 29.1 2010s: 34.6 This is nothing like the ungodly bad period from the 1920-1949. 1920s: 18.2 1930s: 18.4 1940s: 14.9 Since 1950, the average seasonal snowfall has been 29.2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I don't know if we're "due" for a crappy winter, because I don't think things work out that way. Having 2, 3, 4 or 5 winters in a row that were decent is not exactly unheard of. However, you do raise a point about recent snowfall. It's definitely picked up over recent years. Here are the average seasonal snowfall totals for the past 4 decades in Columbus: 1980s: 26.1 1990s: 26.6 2000s: 29.1 2010s: 34.6 This is nothing like the ungodly bad period from the 1920-1949. 1920s: 18.2 1930s: 18.4 1940s: 14.9 Since 1950, the average seasonal snowfall has been 29.2". I guess by saying we're due I just meant we are so far ahead of the curve in average, that it will take a LOT of crap to take us down to where we "should" be based on the last 140 year average. There have been a few crappy winters in recent years, its just its nowhere near evened things out like it did most times in the past. Detroit snowfall since 2002-03 2002-03: 60.9" 2003-04: 24.1" 2004-05: 63.8" 2005-06: 36.3" 2006-07: 30.3" 2007-08: 71.7" 2008-09: 65.7" 2009-10: 43.7" 2010-11: 69.1" 2011-12: 26.0" 2012-13: 47.7" 2013-14: 94.9" We have exceeded 60 inches 6 times in the last 12 years. Before that, we exceeded 60 inches 6 times in the previous 75 years. Its interesting to see the steady increase in Columbus since 1980. At Detroit the last 100 years.... 1920s- 46.1" 1930s- 32.9" 1940s- 27.6" 1950s- 37.8" 1960s- 31.8" 1970s- 45.6" 1980s- 45.2" 1990s- 37.9" 2000s- 45.3" 2010s- 59.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I guess by saying we're due I just meant we are so far ahead of the curve in average, that it will take a LOT of crap to take us down to where we "should" be based on the last 140 year average. There have been a few crappy winters in recent years, its just its nowhere near evened things out like it did most times in the past. Detroit snowfall since 2002-03 2002-03: 60.9" 2003-04: 24.1" 2004-05: 63.8" 2005-06: 36.3" 2006-07: 30.3" 2007-08: 71.7" 2008-09: 65.7" 2009-10: 43.7" 2010-11: 69.1" 2011-12: 26.0" 2012-13: 47.7" 2013-14: 94.9" We have exceeded 60 inches 6 times in the last 12 years. Before that, we exceeded 60 inches 6 times in the previous 75 years. Its interesting to see the steady increase in Columbus since 1980. At Detroit the last 100 years.... 1920s- 46.1" 1930s- 32.9" 1940s- 27.6" 1950s- 37.8" 1960s- 31.8" 1970s- 45.6" 1980s- 45.2" 1990s- 37.9" 2000s- 45.3" 2010s- 59.6" Interesting numbers, so you guys must do well with +NAO's because since the 90's we have had predominately +NAO winters. And your down decades the NAO was predominately negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Interesting numbers, so you guys must do well with +NAO's because since the 90's we have had predominately +NAO winters. And your down decades the NAO was predominately negative. Interesting graph...thanks! yes many of the years that east coasters remember fondly were cold, dry winters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Complaint: I used to lol at people complaining about when the pattern is going to actually change/switch to cold, etc. and how the models keep pushing it back. I am now guilty. First it was mid month, then the 20th, then around the 25th, now the end of the year. I give up. I'm done watching mid range. I am now confining myself to the NAM within 36 hours, HRRR, WRFs, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Complaint: I used to lol at people complaining about when the pattern is going to actually change/switch to cold, etc. and how the models keep pushing it back. I am now guilty. First it was mid month, then the 20th, then around the 25th, now the end of the year. I give up. I'm done watching mid range. I am now confining myself to the NAM within 36 hours, HRRR, WRFs, etc. January will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Damn thing is too far west, no fun in the lower peninsula with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Damn thing is too far west, no fun in the lower peninsula with this one. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Complaint: I used to lol at people complaining about when the pattern is going to actually change/switch to cold, etc. and how the models keep pushing it back. I am now guilty. First it was mid month, then the 20th, then around the 25th, now the end of the year. I give up. I'm done watching mid range. I am now confining myself to the NAM within 36 hours, HRRR, WRFs, etc. Everything was pushed back...I too remember when cold was set to return around mid-month.....yet by mid-month, the torch everyone had been touting for 3 weeks had yet to arrive Then we heard change around the solstice/Christmas. Well once the extremely muted "torch" happened, it did indeed turn colder right around the Solstice...yet now this messed up storm is on the way. I think significant cold is all but a lock shortly after Christmas (if its not, then every single model/ensemble trend is wrong)...the key is we need SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 How do you know its a slow December? When the NWS Marquette facebook page is encouraging reports on an anticipated snowfall of 0.5-2.0" tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 How do you know its a slow December? When the NWS Marquette facebook page is encouraging reports on an anticipated snowfall of 0.5-2.0" tonight Grand Marias probably picked up 100 inches last December, they might be pressed to hit 10 this year.It's suicide watch on the snowmobile forums. It's the winter solstice and nowhere to ride within 300 miles of SE Michigan. I might have to break my personal policy of not doing any major solo riding in the upper peninsula by myself. Gotta buy a handgun for wolf protection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Grand Marias probably picked up 100 inches last December, they might be pressed to hit 10 this year. It's suicide watch on the snowmobile forums. It's the winter solstice and nowhere to ride within 300 miles of SE Michigan. I might have to break my personal policy of not doing any major solo riding in the upper peninsula by myself. Gotta buy a handgun for wolf protection. Good idea... 2 wolves ran through about 50 yards behind my house a few days ago on a deer trail, and 20 min later came running back through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Good idea... 2 wolves ran through about 50 yards behind my house a few days ago on a deer trail, and 20 min later came running back through. Are you serious? Wolves are by far my favorite animal and had no clue they were in your neck of the woods. If you ever seen them, take some pictures. Growing up my entire room was wolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah there's wolves up in the UP. I believe they journeyed over from northern MN in the last decade or so. I know Bobcats are making a comeback in the Midwest and in WI black bears have been sighted further south than in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Are you serious? Wolves are by far my favorite animal and had no clue they were in your neck of the woods. If you ever seen them, take some pictures. Growing up my entire room was wolves. Oh yeah, they're around here. When I first moved in late Summer, my nearest neighbor stopped by to introduce and he told me about a particular brave lone wolf that was getting real close to his house so he called the DNR and they told him to bang some trash can lids or something loud at it and it should run, but he says this one just stays and snarls at him. I've not seen it but he sees it often he said. The people I bought this house from told me specifically that these aren't recreational woods, they're wild and in the summer watch for bear. They showed me pics of bear raiding the suit feeder in the back yard here. The bear are sleeping now but the wolves are still out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Oh yeah, they're around here. When I first moved in late Summer, my nearest neighbor stopped by to introduce and he told me about a particular brave lone wolf that was getting real close to his house so he called the DNR and they told him to bang some trash can lids or something loud at it and it should run, but he says this one just stays and snarls at him. I've not seen it but he sees it often he said. The people I bought this house from told me specifically that these aren't recreational woods, they're wild and in the summer watch for bear. They showed me pics of bear raiding the suit feeder in the back yard here. The bear are sleeping now but the wolves are still out. Haha, that's scary and awesome at the same time. I plan to go to Yellowstone and see them in the wild sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Lots of meteorologists' broken legs coming from jumping off the cold and snowy bandwagon if things don't start to show some kind of change the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah there's wolves up in the UP. I believe they journeyed over from northern MN in the last decade or so. I know Bobcats are making a comeback in the Midwest and in WI black bears have been sighted further south than in recent years. There were some reintroduction efforts by the DNR a long time ago to, from what I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Would have been nice to catch the noon WGN newscast to check out Skilling, but instead we get an episode of In the Heat of the Night from 1990. Pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Would have been nice to catch the noon WGN newscast to check out Skilling, but instead we get an episode of In the Heat of the Night from 1990. Pathetic. Don't be hatin on Carroll O'Connor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Don't be hatin on Carroll O'Connor. lol, touche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 This December needs to end last month. Between the excessive cloudiness, then sheer boringness giving way to two rainstorms, this December 2014 and easily gives December 2011 and December 1998 a run for its money in suckage (even if it wasn't a torch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm liking the 12Z Euro. Good hit for Gaylord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 lol, touche. yeah, ya meathead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 This December needs to end last month. Between the excessive cloudiness, then sheer boringness giving way to two rainstorms, this December 2014 and easily gives December 2011 and December 1998 a run for its money in suckage (even if it wasn't a torch). Yup... Although my business cashed in on the mild weather, sales have been up at least 15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yup... Although my business cashed in on the mild weather, sales have been up at least 15%. It hasnt even been that mild. I can truly say that the start of 2014-15 (thankfully its only just begun lol) has been something i have never seen before. Never seen a November cold snap like that, nor a week straight of November snowcover. And Ive never seen a December this void of action despite being constantly gray. A few have rivaled it in its snowlessness through Christmas, but those were torches, this was not. I wonder if the rest of the winter will continue to behave unconventionally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 yeah, ya meathead. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just did the math, sales up 18.9% this December versus last December. Seafood bizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Just did the math, sales up 18.9% this December versus last December. Seafood bizz. it's good to see people investing their gas savings in otoro and uni Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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