jbcmh81 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 December 2006 had more snow than this. Not a good sign at all for the rest of winter. Unless it turns into a January-February 1985 situation, this will be a pretty big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 December 2006 had more snow than this. Not a good sign at all for the rest of winter. Unless it turns into a January-February 1985 situation, this will be a pretty big bust. so where were we at this juncture during the biggest trainwreck winters I can recall: '97-'98 '11-'12 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well if this model chaos continues into severe season, I will have lost all my hair by July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well if this model chaos continues into severe season, I will have lost all my hair by July. Severe season...what's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Severe season...what's that? For the past three years, idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Severe season...what's that? Ha exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 so where were we at this juncture during the biggest trainwreck winters I can recall: '97-'98 '11-'12 ???wayyy too early to even talk about such things. Hell tomorrow is only the Winter Solstice. Im sure some train wreck winters had more snow at this point than this season, & some awesome winters had less snow at this point than this season. Im not home to check xmacis, but I know its happened im Detroit so im sure its happened further south in Columbus. And trust me im as pissed as anyone about this boring December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 wayyy too early to even talk about such things. Hell tomorrow is only the Winter Solstice. Im sure some train wreck winters had more snow at this point than this season, & some awesome winters had less snow at this point than this season. Im not home to check xmacis, but I know its happened im Detroit so im sure its happened further south in Columbus. And trust me im as pissed as anyone about this boring December Even lake belt areas aren't looking at much. This storm has almost no bright spots left outside of a pattern change, even that would have probably happened regardless. Looks decent for possibly Rockford, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well if this model chaos continues into severe season, I will have lost all my hair by July. You get that in Vancouver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 You get that in Vancouver? No I will not stay off GL/OV, try harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 You get that in Vancouver? You mean like all that lake effect snow you get Howell. Let's not piss on each others interests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 so where were we at this juncture during the biggest trainwreck winters I can recall: '97-'98 '11-'12 ??? At this point in 1997, we were at 3.3", and the season through December 31st finished with 4.1". 2011 was worse, with just 0.4" through this date, and finished the season through December 31st with just 0.5". So far, we are at 4.2", so we're doing better, but not great at all. As I just posted in the other thread, if we finish out the season through the end of December with less than 5" of snow, there's a 93.3% chance we'll finish the entire winter with below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 You mean like all that lake effect snow you get Howell. Let's not piss on each others interests. The difference is, I chase these storms. He's not going to hop in the car and chase a storm in Toledo that will last 15 minutes and leave a few branches on the ground in it's wake. If the GFS pans out, I will 100% be driving up to northern lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 wayyy too early to even talk about such things. Hell tomorrow is only the Winter Solstice. Im sure some train wreck winters had more snow at this point than this season, & some awesome winters had less snow at this point than this season. Im not home to check xmacis, but I know its happened im Detroit so im sure its happened further south in Columbus. And trust me im as pissed as anyone about this boring December Only 4 winters that featured similar or less snowfall at this point than 2014 went on to produce an above normal snowfall winter in Columbus. So unless a miracle happens, the season may already be dead in terms of having a decent snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The difference is, I chase these storms. He's not going to hop in the car and chase a storm in Toledo that will last 15 minutes and leave a few branches on the ground in it's wake. If the GFS pans out, I will 100% be driving up to northern lower. Oh for crying out loud, I was referring to the models, not chasing. Your reading comprehension fails you each and every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 You mean like all that lake effect snow you get Howell. Let's not piss on each others interests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The difference is, I chase these storms. He's not going to hop in the car and chase a storm in Toledo that will last 15 minutes and leave a few branches on the ground in it's wake. If the GFS pans out, I will 100% be driving up to northern lower. I think the real difference is andyhb is actually a good poster on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Oh for crying out loud, I was referring to the models, not chasing. Your reading comprehension fails you each and every time. Speaking of reading comprehension, look at what I replied too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Well if this model chaos continues into severe season, I will have lost all my hair by July. Severe season...what's that? For the past three years, idk. 2012 wasn't bad. That was the year of the March outbreak with the Dexter, MI tornado and the derecho that tracked from Chicago to DC (arguably the most prolific derecho this region has seen since the 90s). 2010 was also the season of my favorite severe weather outbreak, July 4-5 (granted, it was mainly a Detroit-specific outbreak). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Chances are growing Nov will end up with more snow than Dec, but I still highly doubt we end the month with a T Tough call, how many more trace reports will add up before we log a solid 0.1? hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 And lol at the last few posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I think the real difference is andyhb is actually a good poster on this forum. Jonger is a good poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Jonger is a good poster Said no one ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Said no one ever. Be nice...it's the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Be nice...it's the holidays. Lol, okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Only 4 winters that featured similar or less snowfall at this point than 2014 went on to produce an above normal snowfall winter in Columbus. So unless a miracle happens, the season may already be dead in terms of having a decent snow season. Interesting...I will have to look up similar stuff for DTW. Just did a quick "where we are" look at xmacis... Detroit is at 4.0" of snow thru 12/20.....in 134 years of record, 25 times there has been less than that thru 12/21, and two additional times there has been also 4.0", so about 20% of the time there is less snow by this point in the season as there is now. Columbus is at 4.1" of snow through 12/20...in 129 years of record, 61 times there has been less than that thru 12/21, so nearly 50% of the time there is less snow by this point in the season. Chances of a stellar snow season certainly decline if you are stinking it up by New Years, but likewise its way early to say its going to be a turd of a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 so where were we at this juncture during the biggest trainwreck winters I can recall: '97-'98 '11-'12 ??? I did not crack an inch until mid January in 11/12, iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Interesting...I will have to look up similar stuff for DTW. Just did a quick "where we are" look at xmacis... Detroit is at 4.0" of snow thru 12/20.....in 134 years of record, 25 times there has been less than that thru 12/21, and two additional times there has been also 4.0", so about 20% of the time there is less snow by this point in the season as there is now. Columbus is at 4.1" of snow through 12/20...in 129 years of record, 61 times there has been less than that thru 12/21, so nearly 50% of the time there is less snow by this point in the season. Chances of a stellar snow season certainly decline if you are stinking it up by New Years, but likewise its way early to say its going to be a turd of a season. Yes, but only about 5-6 of those 62 went on to an above normal season. So not exactly high odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yes, but only about 5-6 of those 62 went on to an above normal season. So not exactly high odds. At Detroit...6 of the 27 years that had 4" or less thru Dec 21st had an above normal snow season...but heres the catch...they are almost all recent 1899-00 1993-94 1998-99 2004-05 2009-10 2012-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Random thoughts/banter. Im not a forecaster, so I go on gut instincts. All spring and summer, I was certain winter 2014-15 would suck tremendously. Mainly because of last years historic winter, but lets not forget how much of a record pace snow has been falling for a DECADE. I know climate like the back of my hand. I have seen this OVER and OVER again. Severe winter is followed by mild, low snow winter. A few of the hardest winters (1880-81 & 1981-82) were followed by ungodly warm, snowless winters. But even less extreme instances showed the chances of a crappy winter after an exceptional one was high. And they DO NOT get any more exceptional/hard/severe than 2013-14. So throw in the insistence that a Super-Nino was on the way, and it was all but sealed. Then the almanac came out in early Fall. Another severe winter on the way. Then everyone and his brother issued winter outlooks showing cold/snowy winter. The super Nino was failing miserably. Slllowly I came around to the idea that winter might not suck so bad after all, and a record November cold snap and snowy weather in Nov made me feel even better. Well, a snowless, boring December later....I started to rethink my original gut instinct. We are SO due for a crudder. But this isnt the type of winter where everyones getting snow and we are in a screwhole...no ones getting it in December. And its certainly not some torch type of winter that my "gut" was expecting. Its just for some reason the snow isnt coming for most. It has that feeling of "unchartered waters". Time to ditch the old gut instinct and go to the 19th century style of looking out the window and taking the weather day by day. Its going to be a LONG winter, and I dont know if I mean that in a good or bad way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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