OHweather Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 This thread will get fun if we're waiting until Christmas. Heh, I'm cool as long as it turns before mid-January. I want to maximize my NE Ohio snow climo before I go back to the snow-hole that is SE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The true issue of late is the lack of excitement in the weather as a whole. Early November brought absolute bitter cold to the region and the weather could not be any better for all of us winter lovers. As a whole the temps are not that warm and could support snow. Winter hasn't even officially begun. Before long storms will be brewing on the models and the true birth of winter will be before us. Till then...... get the Christmas shopping done and get the honey do list widdled down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Heh, I'm cool as long as it turns before mid-January. I want to maximize my NE Ohio snow climo before I go back to the snow-hole that is SE Ohio. The way I look at it, the longer we wait, the harder it gets to have a special/historic type winter. Not that you necessarily go into any winter expecting that, but realistically you can't lose the entire month of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The way I look at it, the longer we wait, the harder it gets to have a special/historic type winter. Not that you necessarily go into any winter expecting that, but realistically you can't lose the entire month of December. I definitely agree there. The only areas doing "well" so far I'd say are some of the Snowbelts and places like MN/northern WI where they've gotten a good storm or two. That isn't too unusual considering it's early December, but if we do get through all of December without anything more of note then yeah we'd have to make up for lost time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hoping to get in on some snow before the New Year because after that I'm going to live in Bloomington, Indiana. Probably not going to cash in on a lot but who knows maybe nature will have something special around Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The true issue of late is the lack of excitement in the weather as a whole. Early November brought absolute bitter cold to the region and the weather could not be any better for all of us winter lovers. As a whole the temps are not that warm and could support snow. Winter hasn't even officially begun. Before long storms will be brewing on the models and the true birth of winter will be before us. Till then...... get the Christmas shopping done and get the honey do list widdled down. Bingo. The November cold snap was arguably the 2nd worst on record for this area. The only one I could see that matched or exceeded it in terms of duration/intensity was in November 1880 (which exceeded it fwiw). The snowcover was thin, but it was on the ground for a week and it was all powder. Combine with wind chills below zero..totally felt like mid-winter. Now here we sit with no sign of snow in early December. But the key is...no excitement. Everyones talking about this pattern....it is NOT a warm pattern, its a boring one. The warmth itself will probably last a week or less and not even be anything close to impressive, rather run of the mill +5 to +10 type stuff (for our region). We need to get some action in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The way I look at it, the longer we wait, the harder it gets to have a special/historic type winter. Not that you necessarily go into any winter expecting that, but realistically you can't lose the entire month of December. I do agree with this. But I didnt really expect anything special/historic after last year. I mean, say we get a BRUTAL cold Jan/Feb, then any mildness of Dec will be long gone in the memory banks. But losing a full month of December to little snow, the snow aspect will be hard to achieve special status. Above normal certainly attainable, but not "special". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Bingo. The November cold snap was arguably the 2nd worst on record for this area. The only one I could see that matched or exceeded it in terms of duration/intensity was in November 1880 (which exceeded it fwiw). The snowcover was thin, but it was on the ground for a week and it was all powder. Combine with wind chills below zero..totally felt like mid-winter. Now here we sit with no sign of snow in early December. But the key is...no excitement. Everyones talking about this pattern....it is NOT a warm pattern, its a boring one. The warmth itself will probably last a week or less and not even be anything close to impressive, rather run of the mill +5 to +10 type stuff (for our region). We need to get some action in here. I think the warmth might be more impressive than that, if only for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I do agree with this. But I didnt really expect anything special/historic after last year. I mean, say we get a BRUTAL cold Jan/Feb, then any mildness of Dec will be long gone in the memory banks. But losing a full month of December to little snow, the snow aspect will be hard to achieve special status. Above normal certainly attainable, but not "special". Yeah, I wouldn't write off a good winter even if December gets wasted...but elite would be next to impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I think the warmth might be more impressive than that, if only for a day or two. That I could see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Totally random factoid In 140 past Decembers, a possible 4,340 days, Detroit had seen a temp of 60F+ on 48 days, and 55F+ on 182 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 the December torch of 2014 thus far.... If it was gonna be this boring it might as well have been 20 degrees warmer.... but i'll take my 48 hours of warmth later this week and enjoy it before the other shoe drops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 People will forget about the 2-3 day torch on tap by the end of this winter. It is not very note worthy, perhaps those in Alberta will think differently but the GFS is showing a boat load of snow for that region of the world 240 hours out. I can see potential WRT storms and snow in the long term model development. It might not be artic cold out but 32°f is the magic number with success for snow. By the way this is my favorite snow shovel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Any room left on the punt til the 20th-25th train? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The only good thing about the next 10+ days is that most of us don't need a really cold airmass relative to average to get something wintry. Possible that we luck into something but won't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Any room left on the punt til the 20th-25th train? left the station, but i have a couple seats on the punt till January train that i've been saving for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 parallel GFS has returned http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014120812/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Any room left on the punt til the 20th-25th train? I'm not one who usually gets too down about how things look beyond the 6-10 day range, but this pattern is complete garbage up until at least Christmas. If things don't turn around in the last week of the month then we will have punted away 1/3rd of met winter already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm not one who usually gets too down about how things look beyond the 6-10 day range, but this pattern is complete garbage up until at least Christmas. If things don't turn around in the last week of the month then we will have punted away 1/3rd of met winter already. Its unrelenting. On the flip side (of the planet), Siberia looks like a frozen hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Any room left on the punt til the 20th-25th train?lol I already thought that we were all on that train (til the 20-25th)Most would probably rather have had that 10 day period in November now (though it wouldn't be near record now like it was then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 lol I already thought that we were all on that train (til the 20-25th) The 20th train has already left the station and is en route to it's destination. The 25th train is filling up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 lol I already thought that we were all on that train (til the 20-25th) Most would probably rather have had that 10 day period in November now (though it wouldn't be near record now like it was then). I had been uncommitted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Its unrelenting. On the flip side (of the planet), Siberia looks like a frozen hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 On one of my snowmobile forums, someone just posted a forecast from JB as a sign of encouragement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Holy crap Europe. Thames going to freeze over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 On one of my snowmobile forums, someone just posted a forecast from JB as a sign of encouragement. weenies gonna weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 20th train has already left the station and is en route to it's destination. The 25th train is filling up though.the question thats unclear is what are people looking for when this pattern changes? Action or cold? Because as has been said over and over this long awaited warm spell has been pushed back back back. And day after day people are looking for this Solstice change to cold while the actual current weather is STILL in a below normal temperature pattern as this heralded warmth has YET to arrive! So once this mild blah week finally gets here then passes it looks like we may finally get into a more unsettled pattern. And by about Christmas seasonal weather produces snow (ie you dont need below normal temps north of i80). So with cold signal strong as ever heading towards new years and beyond, a period of seasonal but unsettled weather may not be a bad thing to hope for around Christmas week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 This thread will offer some good laughs if January comes in like 1978, 2014 and 1999 did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 This thread will offer some good laughs if January comes in like 1978, 2014 and 1998 did... I can see that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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