Winter 14/15 Banter & Complaint Thread

[snowstormcanuck]

If I remember right, I thought SSC was going to go postal.

 

Gotta go back through some of those threads. Probably some real gems from me.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

You know who never seems to post much anymore? Organizing Low. When I lived in Ottawa, he provided some great insight into snowstorms for the eastern Ontario/southern Quebec region.

[Powerball]

If I remember right, I thought SSC was going to go postal.

 

I remember the post about him taking a 2x4 to the head of folks around Toronto (something like that), and the Garfield avatar...

[Powerball]

Aw, man. That is the worst.

 

Nah, 33*F and rain is the worst.

 

But 35*F and rain is definitely up there in suckage...

[Powerball]

The strange thing is that even places not that far away didn't suck nearly as much that winter IIRC (like Detroit).

 

February (I think a top 5 or top 10 snowiest on record) saved 2009-2010 here. Over half of our snow fell in that month before the season abruptly ended in March.

[TugHillMatt]

Nah, 33*F and rain is the worst.

 

But 35*F and rain is definitely up there in suckage...

 

lol...ok, that is worse.

[michsnowfreak]

The strange thing is that even places not that far away didn't suck nearly as much that winter IIRC (like Detroit).

As powerball said, it was quite the disproportionate season, but Detroit ended up with snowfall right around normal, if not a flurry above, at 43.7". Of this total, 27.0" came in February (which was the 5th snowiest Feb at the time, now 6th), and then March was only the 2nd time on record that no measurable snow fell (though we did have snowpack the first week). There were two nice snowstorms (8.6" on Feb 9/10 & 6.9" on Feb 21/22).

 

It was still the black sheep though in a 4-yr stretch of heaven, and actually the 2nd least snowy winter in the last 7 years!

2007-08: 71.7"

2008-09: 65.7"

2009-10: 43.7"

2010-11: 69.1"

2011-12: 26.0"

2012-13: 47.7"

2013-14: 94.9"

[cyclone77]

Not even any fantasy storms to look at?  Fine I'll just draw one then, lol.

 

If you're gonna dream, dream big.

[Powerball]

Not even any fantasy storms to look at?  Fine I'll just draw one then, lol.

 

If you're gonna dream, dream big.

 

Pass.

[Jonger]

I'm officially punting winter till December 28th. The 20th pattern change is almost dead.

Detroit receives less that 1 inch for the month.

[Powerball]

I'm officially punting winter till December 28th. The 20th pattern change is almost dead.

Detroit receives less that 1 inch for the month.

 

Doutbful it's that bad.

 

All it will take is one weak clipper or minor LES event (which even in this pattern shouldn't be hard to come by) to achieve more than that...

[dmc76]

Pass.

Snow to Rain?

[Powerball]

Snow to Rain?

 

Your avatar...

[Trent]

People tend to have such unrealistic expectations of winter, both in the on-line weather weenie community and in the "I don't like cold and snow" general public.

 

For vast swaths of the Midwest outside of the lake effect belts, the average snowfall is 25-50" (same can be said for coastal Northeast). If you assume that the accumulating snowfall season is from about mid November to early April, that's about 21 weeks. For that zone of the US that averages snowfall in the 40 give or take a few inches range (ORD, DTW, BOS, etc) that's about 2" per snow per week for that time frame. So for an average year if there's an 8" snowstorm, it's reasonable to think that there's going to be 3 weeks of nothing to offset that average. Having a cold week with a couple 2" fluff events is pretty typical, and once again, in a normal year that'd be offset by another week or two of nothing. More often than not during that accumulating snow window from November-April in an average year, it's not going to be that exciting, with lots of waiting - hardly the harsh cold and snowy climate that people constantly gripe and complain about (and perpetuated by the media). 

 

If you were to go back and take out the 5 snowiest days of each season at major climate sites over the past, their winters would look pretty tame. It really is only a handful of days per winter that perpetuates a snowy stereotype, but in my opinion 1% of a year's weather really isn't that defining of a place's winter climate.

 

And that's my complaint/reality check as we head into winter.

[michsnowfreak]

I'm officially punting winter till December 28th. The 20th pattern change is almost dead.

Detroit receives less that 1 inch for the month.

Silly to say that on December 7th

 

Its happened 3 times in 134 years

1889 - 0.0"

1894 - 0.4"

1943 - 0.9"

Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

 

What makes you think this Solstice pattern change is dead? If anything the models have gone COOLER in recent days. Remember no one said pattern change to brutal cold.

[michsnowfreak]

People tend to have such unrealistic expectations of winter, both in the on-line weather weenie community and in the "I don't like cold and snow" general public.

 

For vast swaths of the Midwest outside of the lake effect belts, the average snowfall is 25-50" (same can be said for coastal Northeast). If you assume that the accumulating snowfall season is from about mid November to early April, that's about 21 weeks. For that zone of the US that averages snowfall in the 40 give or take a few inches range (ORD, DTW, BOS, etc) that's about 2" per snow per week for that time frame. So for an average year if there's an 8" snowstorm, it's reasonable to think that there's going to be 3 weeks of nothing to offset that average. Having a cold week with a couple 2" fluff events is pretty typical, and once again, in a normal year that'd be offset by another week or two of nothing. More often than not during that accumulating snow window from November-April in an average year, it's not going to be that exciting, with lots of waiting - hardly the harsh cold and snowy climate that people constantly gripe and complain about (and perpetuated by the media). 

 

If you were to go back and take out the 5 snowiest days of each season at major climate sites over the past, their winters would look pretty tame. It really is only a handful of days per winter that perpetuates a snowy stereotype, but in my opinion 1% of a year's weather really isn't that defining of a place's winter climate.

 

And that's my complaint/reality check as we head into winter.

wow...EXCELLENT thoughts and post!

[slow poke]

wow...EXCELLENT thoughts and post!

I agree!

[Jonger]

For 2014-2015 to be as bad as 2011-2012, we need to sustain this for 3 months... It's unlikely to happen, but this will probably go down as one of the weirdest starts to winter we have seen. It's very possible that November may be colder than December locally.

 

I'm sure it will break at some point, but when a pattern establishes itself, it doesn't budge easily.

[Jonger]

Dec 2011 was +4.7 in Lansing

Jan 2012 was +5.1

Feb 2012 was +4.6

 

Nov 2014 was -5.7

Dec probably ends up in the +3-6 range

[michsnowfreak]

For 2014-2015 to be as bad as 2011-2012, we need to sustain this for 3 months... It's unlikely to happen, but this will probably go down as one of the weirdest starts to winter we have seen. It's very possible that November may be colder than December locally.

 

I'm sure it will break at some point, but when a pattern establishes itself, it doesn't budge easily.

Actually, cold/snowy Novembers followed by mild Decembers have happened several times before.

 

Since 1871...Decembers that were 2F or less colder than November. Climo is Dec (30.1F) should be 11.4F colder than Nov (41.5F), the greatest differential of any month to month of the year (cold or warm).

Its happened, but mostly long ago. The only time Dec was ever warmer than Nov was 1873, but that doesnt technically count as records officially begin in 1874 (the 1870-73 record database had some M data I believe, or something like that).

1873: Nov- 32.5F...Dec- 32.7F

1875: Nov- 34.5F...Dec- 32.8F

1877: Nov- 39.2F...Dec- 38.1F

1889: Nov- 40.2F...Dec- 39.2F

1891: Nov- 36.5F...Dec- 35.7F

1911: Nov- 35.6F...Dec- 33.9F

1959: Nov- 36.6F...Dec- 34.7F

 

Years when November saw more snow than December

1880: Nov 7.7", Dec 7.2"

1889: Nov 1.0", Dec 0.0"

1891: Nov 6.8", Dec 5.4"

1894: Nov 6.9", Dec 0.4"

1900: Nov 6.2", Dec 2.0"

1911: Nov 7.0", Dec 3.8"

1940: Nov 9.1", Dec 4.3"

1943: Nov 3.0", Dec 0.9"

1949: Nov 5.5", Dec 4.7"

1950: Nov 9.2", Dec 6.5"

1955: Nov 4.8", Dec 4.8" (Same)

1956: Nov 6.7", Dec 5.4"

1959: Nov 8.1", Dec 6.6"

1971: Nov 4.2", Dec 2.6"

1979: Nov 3.2", Dec 2.3"

1982: Nov 1.8", Dec 1.4"

 

LOL and what on earth made you bring up 2011-12? Mild/boring spells are NOT uncommon in Dec. This isnt shaping up REMOTELY close to 2011-12

[michsnowfreak]

Dec 2011 was +4.7 in Lansing

Jan 2012 was +5.1

Feb 2012 was +4.6

 

Nov 2014 was -5.7

Dec probably ends up in the +3-6 range

Lansing will finish the first week of December at -4F. There is a spell of above normal temps on the way but no torch and as many have said signs of colder air moving in around the Solstice. I give Lansing a 50% shot they end the month at +3, but about a 5% chance they finish at +6F.

[Jonger]

Actually, cold/snowy Novembers followed by mild Decembers have happened several times before.

 

Since 1871...Decembers that were 2F or less colder than November. Climo is Dec (30.1F) should be 11.4F colder than Nov (41.5F), the greatest differential of any month to month of the year (cold or warm).

Its happened, but mostly long ago. The only time Dec was ever warmer than Nov was 1873, but that doesnt technically count as records officially begin in 1874 (the 1870-73 record database had some M data I believe, or something like that).

1873: Nov- 32.5F...Dec- 32.7F

1875: Nov- 34.5F...Dec- 32.8F

1877: Nov- 39.2F...Dec- 38.1F

1889: Nov- 40.2F...Dec- 39.2F

1891: Nov- 36.5F...Dec- 35.7F

1911: Nov- 35.6F...Dec- 33.9F

1959: Nov- 36.6F...Dec- 34.7F

 

Years when November saw more snow than December

1880: Nov 7.7", Dec 7.2"

1889: Nov 1.0", Dec 0.0"

1891: Nov 6.8", Dec 5.4"

1894: Nov 6.9", Dec 0.4"

1900: Nov 6.2", Dec 2.0"

1911: Nov 7.0", Dec 3.8"

1940: Nov 9.1", Dec 4.3"

1943: Nov 3.0", Dec 0.9"

1949: Nov 5.5", Dec 4.7"

1950: Nov 9.2", Dec 6.5"

1955: Nov 4.8", Dec 4.8" (Same)

1956: Nov 6.7", Dec 5.4"

1959: Nov 8.1", Dec 6.6"

1971: Nov 4.2", Dec 2.6"

1979: Nov 3.2", Dec 2.3"

1982: Nov 1.8", Dec 1.4"

 

LOL and what on earth made you bring up 2011-12? Mild/boring spells are NOT uncommon in Dec. This isnt shaping up REMOTELY close to 2011-12

 

11-12 saw a jetstream hover about Lake Superior and a lack of cold on this side of the planet.

[Hoosier]

Jonger going all out pessimist.  I would've expected it from someone else. 

[Jonger]

Lansing will finish the first week of December at -4F. There is a spell of above normal temps on the way but no torch and as many have said signs of colder air moving in around the Solstice. I give Lansing a 50% shot they end the month at +3, but about a 5% chance they finish at +6F.

 

I think the 20th pattern change is off the table now... The models have backed off that idea.

[michsnowfreak]

11-12 saw a jetstream hover about Lake Superior and a lack of cold on this side of the planet.

Lets revisit these posts January 1st. If the pattern hasnt budged and shows no signs of doing so, Ill rethink it. But again, many, actually MOST Decembers have periods of mild/boring/zonal/etc for a time.

[michsnowfreak]

I think the 20th pattern change is off the table now... The models have backed off that idea.

How so? First of all, it wasnt the models so much as it was mets saying that ensembles and such showed the pattern evolving. Secondly the 20th is a give or take date, some oscillation is expected (hell we have yet to break out of a BELOW normal temp pattern let alone into this much ado about nothing torch). There has been no change to my knowledge to the point of the pattern change being off the table, and if there has, please do tell.

[michsnowfreak]

Im using the Cant Forecast Sh*t model, but its the only resource i have.

 

Dec 27-Jan 1

[OHweather]

Im using the Cant Forecast Sh*t model, but its the only resource i have.

 

Dec 27-Jan 1

Not to mention the GFS, GGEM and Euro ensembles all have a similar look developing at the end of their runs a few days before that timeframe. I wouldn't be too worried. The 20th might be a little bit too early for colder air to work in (it will take a little while to cool Canada back off after the torch that will probably occur up there over the next week or so), but by Christmas is when I would expect things to start turning for the better in the subforum.

[DAFF]

I could see the pattern changing in activity more than wrt PV's dropping from the north, temps still running -2 below normal.

[Hoosier]

Not to mention the GFS, GGEM and Euro ensembles all have a similar look developing at the end of their runs a few days before that timeframe. I wouldn't be too worried. The 20th might be a little bit too early for colder air to work in (it will take a little while to cool Canada back off after the torch that will probably occur up there over the next week or so), but by Christmas is when I would expect things to start turning for the better in the subforum.

 

 

This thread will get fun if we're waiting until Christmas.