Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 IND getting LAF'ed right now. SPECI KIND 041706Z 12008KT 2SM -SNPL BKN042 OVC055 01/M05 A3035 RMK AO2 PLB06 P0001 T00061050 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 long range models vs. reality.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 And the wind added a nice touch that day. That might be a candidate for one of the worst winter days in LAF's history. That was incredibly close to being a big ice storm. Dewpoints in the upper 20s to 30 during most of the precip. I think the rates were a bit too much for the marginal temps and the late February sun angle may not have helped, though the rates were probably the main factor. It would've been interesting to put that event overnight and see if there would've been a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 December looking mighty fine to start the futility record train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 December looking mighty fine to start the futility record train. At least November bumped up the surplus in many areas...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Found it...February 26, 2013. Over 1" liquid with the temp of 32 for the most part http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLAF/2013/2/26/DailyHistory.html Over 1.5" of QPF here in Detroit, but only 2-4" of cement... Pretty miserable storm, considering how close the temp profiles were to likely making it a historic snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Our forum is filled with cold wishcasting. By mid month it will be atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Our forum is filled with cold wishcasting. By mid month it will be atrocious. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Our forum is filled with cold wishcasting. By mid month it will be atrocious. it's filled with jaded d bag's too hugz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 long range models vs. reality.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 If I see more than 3 days with daytime highs over average in the next 2 weeks IMBY I will be shocked "normal daytime highs" is what I meant to say.... regardless, either way you slice it though, the Bears are pitiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 long range models vs. reality.... Haha. That has definitely been the trend since last November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 we will be hearing about this pattern change until at least NYE before anyone in this subforum sees a meaningful snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Lots of Mets honking about the 20th timeframe.... we will see how that pans out, I do recall a similar situation in 11-12 not panning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Lots of Mets honking about the 20th timeframe.... we will see how that pans out, I do recall a similar situation in 11-12 not panning out. 2001-02 was the winter where the cold was always 15 days away, not sure about 2011-12. I think they are mainly discussing a return to cold, which, technically the month-long-heralded torch hasnt even arrived lol. In fact, per the latest GFS, this torch is now 3 days in the 40s-50s for us and thats it . The key is getting storminess. The UP will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 2001-02 was the winter where the cold was always 15 days away, not sure about 2011-12. I think they are mainly discussing a return to cold, which, technically the month-long-heralded torch hasnt even arrived lol. In fact, per the latest GFS, this torch is now 3 days in the 40s-50s for us and thats it . The key is getting storminess. The UP will be fine. I think the the entire state is going to be pretty melted down by the 20th. The only thing that makes 2011-2012 worse, is that there was NO RIDING anywhere outside of Canada before the 20th. We just had the coldest November on record up there and a decent first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I think the the entire state is going to be pretty melted down by the 20th. The only thing that makes 2011-2012 worse, is that there was NO RIDING anywhere outside of Canada before the 20th. We just had the coldest November on record up there and a decent first week of December. I've often found that nature is always looking to balance things out. Last December was really cold, with Winnipeg having one of its coldest Decembers on record. By contrast, it looks like they will be approaching 40F by the middle of next week, which is 20F above normal for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Here's a complaint. Another potential Nor'Easter is possible for the East Coast next week. This is probably one of many that we've seen this Fall already. I'm starting to doubt this Winter will be fun and games for us. Our sub-forum isn't very "active" for the next 1-2 weeks with a consistent zonal jet stream. However, vort maps do show a nice Subtropical Jet stream, courtesy of the El Nino, so with the right pattern in place, maybe we'll get a nice few decent storms. Lets see, its only December 5th right? Till then......zzzzzz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Here's a complaint. Another potential Nor'Easter is possible for the East Coast next week. This is probably one of many that we've seen this Fall already. I'm starting to doubt this Winter will be fun and games for us. Our sub-forum isn't very "active" for the next 1-2 weeks with a consistent zonal jet stream. However, vort maps do show a nice Subtropical Jet stream, courtesy of the El Nino, so with the right pattern in place, maybe we'll get a nice few decent storms. Lets see, its only December 5th right? Till then......zzzzzz! There's hardly any cold air for the potential nor'easter though. Looks like mainly a rainmaker for I-95 at this point. Best chances for sig snow should be well inland in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 There's hardly any cold air for the potential nor'easter though. Looks like mainly a rainmaker for I-95 at this point. Best chances for sig snow should be well inland in New England. True, hard to complain about that, but i was referring to the overall general pattern. If you analyze the daily maps so far this Fall, you'd notice we've seen a few coastal storms already. In theory, El Nino's tend to favour more coastal regions than inland areas (our sub-forum) on average. 2009-10 is a prime example. Its still well early in the season so I wouldn't complain. However, we don't want crazy blocking like in 2009-10. A -AO aided by a weakly negative NAO would be ideal for the entire sub-forum. And didn't parts of New England already get a snowstorm this season like a week or two ago? (Another coastal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 And didn't parts of New England already get a snowstorm this season like a week or two ago? (Another coastal). Inland areas got most of it I believe. I realize this is only one place in New England but if you compare Boston's snowfall to date, many of the big cities in our subforum are similar or running ahead (leaving out some of the prime LES areas like Cleveland and South Bend). Boston: 2.6" Milwaukee: 5.3" Columbus: 4.1" Detroit: 4.0" St. Louis: 3.9" Chicago: 2.9" Indianapolis: 2.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 True, hard to complain about that, but i was referring to the overall general pattern. If you analyze the daily maps so far this Fall, you'd notice we've seen a few coastal storms already. In theory, El Nino's tend to favour more coastal regions than inland areas (our sub-forum) on average. 2009-10 is a prime example. Its still well early in the season so I wouldn't complain. However, we don't want crazy blocking like in 2009-10. A -AO aided by a weakly negative NAO would be ideal for the entire sub-forum. And didn't parts of New England already get a snowstorm this season like a week or two ago? (Another coastal). That has to have been among the most frustrating winters ever. Pretty much everyone around us was having an epic winter (including Europe) while Toronto and Ottawa had one of their warmest and driest winters on record. Prior to that winter, I would cheer on the prospect of a -AO. I haven't since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 That has to have been among the most frustrating winters ever. Pretty much everyone around us was having an epic winter (including Europe) while Toronto and Ottawa had one of their warmest and driest winters on record. Prior to that winter, I would cheer on the prospect of a -AO. I haven't since. The strange thing is that even places not that far away didn't suck nearly as much that winter IIRC (like Detroit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The strange thing is that even places not that far away didn't suck nearly as much that winter IIRC (like Detroit). If I remember right, I thought SSC was going to go postal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 This could have been huge for Indiana. #lackofcoldair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 This could have been huge for Indiana. #lackofcoldair. and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 This could have been huge for Indiana. #lackofcoldair. Yeah man. I looked at the radar once today. Trying to pretend this didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 This could have been huge for Indiana. #lackofcoldair. What? I'm enjoying my 35° and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 What? I'm enjoying my 35° and rain. Aw, man. That is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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