WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Wonder if DT's going to tell us how it's meteorologically unpossible for a storm to cut directly into that blocking pattern. Since it's the Euro that shows it, I'm guessing not. I don't get any good EURO maps but the position of that low at day 8 and the CAD look on the 850's makes me think that would be an interesting situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I don't get any good EURO maps but the position of that low at day 8 and the CAD look on the 850's makes me think that would be an interesting situation. Anyone have access to ecmwf surface maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Anyone have access to ecmwf surface maps? Plenty of these guys do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Plenty of these guys do. Unwanted results for the system? The ecmwf.int data argues for a big system to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Unwanted results for the system? The ecmwf.int data argues for a big system to me. Most likely a combo of a Sat afternoon and this system still too far in la-la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Most likely a combo of a Sat afternoon and this system still too far in la-la land. So I'm not any less crazy than other folks here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 when any model, including the Euro, shows a big snow 7-10 out any time of the year, let alone mid-NOV, it probably fails 98%+ of the time BUT, when it shows a cutter or suppression 7-10 days out, we've got a chance because no prog at 7-10 days works out as advertised, especially snow trust me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 when any model, including the Euro, shows a big snow 7-10 out any time of the year, let alone mid-NOV, it probably fails 98%+ of the time BUT, when it shows a cutter or suppression 7-10 days out, we've got a chance because not prog at 7-10 days works out as advertised, especially snow trust me.... First (Mecs?) of the season being modeled is no small deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Sick pattern on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Sick pattern on the euro. Agreed Ian, I've decided its time to return to the board for the season. The cold air scheme on the GFS is pretty awesome, and despite not being a real advocate of cold/dry, it seems as though the Euro and its ensembles have been keeping things very active in the d7+ period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Sick pattern on the euro. It's the EURO.. get with the program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 You could see the cut coming early on the euro. As the energy digs down the back of the trough it pops ridging in front. There's no confluence or block above us to keep the track suppressed. The funny thing is the hl blocking stops it in tracks over the great lakes so it spins and drags ridiculous Nov cold behind it. If it were to track further east but still go West we could get a front end messy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 You could see the cut coming early on the euro. As the energy digs down the back of the trough it pops ridging in front. There's no confluence or block above us to keep the track suppressed. The funny thing is the hl blocking stops it in tracks over the great lakes so it spins and drags ridiculous Nov cold behind it. If it were to track further east but still go West we could get a front end messy solution. Agreed, it seems like the massive block forms after the PV dives etc. If it was January I would argue that we could get some frozen overrunning precip out ahead of the ULL if the 50/50 holds and is in a good spot, I guess it still could happen in November though we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 The Euro is good if you want absolutely no precipitation before sunday...other than some flakes/sleet western burbs that probably doesn't stick or do more than a cartopper, pretty much cold and dry with some rain after Wednesday..combined with climo., The idea that DC has a decent chance of getting accumulating snow next weekend is utterly preposterous...there is almost no chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 This is CRAZY for November... not really...it would give us highs in the low to mid 40s in mid November...nothing crazy about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 eh...maybe I should be more excited that there are signs we might be able to get on board in the next 4-6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I'm not expecting accum snow that's for sure. Not perfect which we need but if it was solidly winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Anything in NOV is bonus to me. I'm mostly a fan of the upcoming pattern because it almost statistically precludes a +AO winter, when accounting for ENSO/QBO, at least since 1950. That said, the sample size is only 8 - 11 winters. As many others here have mentioned, there is a strong correlation coefficient between a warm Siberian stratosphere (50mb) in NOV & a -AO in DEC/JAN..kind of breaks down in FEB but at that point there are other good indicators. Sometimes the correlation is off in DEC, but it tends to perform successfully in the long run. If there's one month I feel shaky about, it's DEC, but that's mostly an analog-based hunch on my part and could be wrong. I'll gladly bust on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 I'm not expecting accum snow that's for sure. Not perfect which we need but if it was solidly winter.. Agree. Just keeping an eye out for snow falling from the sky. If any Nov has a "chance" at accum, this would be the first I've seen in I don't know how long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Agree. Just keeping an eye out for snow falling from the sky. If any Nov has a "chance" at accum, this would be the first I've seen in I don't know how long. 1989 I think. edit- that is, an actual snow event for the cities and points east. Not talking dustings or mountain snow. I cant recall a significant snow in November since Thanksgiving of 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 1989 I think. edit- that is, an actual snow event for the cities and points east. Not talking dustings or mountain snow. I cant recall a significant snow in November since Thanksgiving of 89 11/11/87 was a monster. Not sure what DC got, but I remember 14" in Crofton, Md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Agree. Just keeping an eye out for snow falling from the sky. If any Nov has a "chance" at accum, this would be the first I've seen in I don't know how long. I think DCA got a T, but I got more than a cartopper on 11/23/05..around 0.3"....it snowed much of the evening, but was like 32-33 and didn't stick well..eventually whitened the grass and cartops...I don't think it stuck to the street...More than snowTV but not a big deal....it did however lead to that great wintry period from 12/3 to 12/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 11/11/87 was a monster. Not sure what DC got, but I remember 14" in Crofton, Md. Veterans Day Storm. Hmm seems we are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 This was night before Thanksgiving in 2005...I got 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 This was night before Thanksgiving in 2005...I got 0.25" You're like rainman of small events. It's uncanny. I have no memory of that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 11/87 was a great storm. A storm where along and east of 95 actually did better than the other side of the fall line. Top accums pushed 15-16" and there was T/L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 You're like rainman of small events. It's uncanny. I have no memory of that event. ha..it wasn't very memorable...except that it snowed and kind of stuck on November 23rd, which is pretty early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 11/87 was a great storm. A storm where along and east of 95 actually did better than the other side of the fall line. Top accums pushed 15-16" and there was T/L. Thanksgiving 1989 was an interesting storm in that the entire state of MD had accum snow, and it was an all snow event, even on the beaches. The heaviest amounts were I-95 east to the coast. I actually drove from the eastern shore to Carroll county the following morning, and there was 6-7 inches at home and half that at my sister's house in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 You're like rainman of small events. It's uncanny. I have no memory of that event. I also remember it well. I think it was a little clipper but was pretty much unexpected. I got about .5 in Reisterstown. Snow lasted for about 3-4 hours. Other than this little event there has been virtually nothing in November since. I think there were pretty good snow showers in late November of 2008 and I guess some areas saw the ground whitened. We had a dusting here last November. Going back a little further there was the Mega front in early November 1995. A strong low associated with the front produced very heavy rain that ended in very heavy snow for a lot of the region. Some areas picked up a quick 1-2 inches. The very next year in November 1996 on the wednesday night before Thanksgiving a strong cold front passed through the region producing a heavy snow shower that whitened the ground but quickly melted. The front led to an extremely cold but clear Thanksgiving Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 The winter of Thanksgiving to Christmas 1989 was awesome. Clipper after clipper with constant snow cover and cold. We were skating on Rocky Gorge in mid December. Too bad January and February 1990 sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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