aldie 22 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Poor Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 How much margin for error is there on the models? Miles. Literally hundreds of them at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yep, here is the full snow map. The Euro..........king of the 8 day MA snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The day 7-8 "event" doesn't have much euro ensemble support. GEFS likes the wave riding the front idea so there is a bit of a war there. Further down the line looks more interesting but nothing worth thinking too hard about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The day 7-8 "event" doesn't have much euro ensemble support. GEFS likes the wave riding the front idea so there is a bit of a war there. Further down the line looks more interesting but nothing worth thinking too hard about. Yup, that's where I'm at now. Weekend looks cold, with some showers possible. Can't get too juiced up about this. yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Have "something" to track - whether it is a fantasy or not, is better than boring cold and dry on the models! But ya - there is support of several runs but I just wonder about how this will play out - who (if anyone) gets precip- and with the time of year if wet flakes become wet rain at the boundary! BUT IT IS FUNNER than nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yup, that's where I'm at now. Weekend looks cold, with some showers possible. Can't get too juiced up about this. yet. 12z global runs will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yup, that's where I'm at now. Weekend looks cold, with some showers possible. Can't get too juiced up about this. yet. d9-15 looks much better with the lw pattern. The ridging in AK pushes poleward and the trough in the conus narrows while the axis shifts into a favorable location compared to d7-9. There's also lower heights all the way down into Mexico. To me this implies the possibility of split flow during the period. The fun part is how stable the pattern appears. The vortex in Canada could sit and spin for a while so multiple spokes could drop down while the blocking remains in place. I know how rare Nov snow is but if you are going to get it, this is one of the patterns that can do it. At least for somebody out of the mountains and south of 40. The real fun begins when the blocking ends up too strong and SC gets their second event of the year before Dec 1st while we enjoy blue skies and windy cold/dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 d9-15 looks much better with the lw pattern. The ridging in AK pushes poleward and the trough in the conus narrows while the axis shifts into a favorable location compared to d7-9. There's also lower heights all the way down into Mexico. To me this implies the possibility of split flow during the period. The fun part is how stable the pattern appears. The vortex in Canada could sit and spin for a while so multiple spokes could drop down while the blocking remains in place. I know how rare Nov snow is but if you are going to get it, this is one of the patterns that can do it. At least for somebody out of the mountains and south of 40. euro11.19.GIF The real fun begins when the blocking ends up too strong and SC gets their second event of the year before Dec 1st while we enjoy blue skies and windy cold/dry air. you mean royal blue skies to match our royal screw job under those circumstances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 d9-15 looks much better with the lw pattern. The ridging in AK pushes poleward and the trough in the conus narrows while the axis shifts into a favorable location compared to d7-9. There's also lower heights all the way down into Mexico. To me this implies the possibility of split flow during the period. The fun part is how stable the pattern appears. The vortex in Canada could sit and spin for a while so multiple spokes could drop down while the blocking remains in place. I know how rare Nov snow is but if you are going to get it, this is one of the patterns that can do it. At least for somebody out of the mountains and south of 40. euro11.19.GIF The real fun begins when the blocking ends up too strong and SC gets their second event of the year before Dec 1st while we enjoy blue skies and windy cold/dry air. See your good at trolling JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Where are all of the middle grounders...all we have are weenies trying to make it snow 10 days out and people working hard to tell them it can't and won't...i need me some vanilla...too much c and s not enough v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 See your good at trolling JK lol Where are all of the middle grounders...all we have are weenies trying to make it snow 10 days out and people working hard to tell them it can't and won't...i need me some vanilla...too much c and s not enough v I just said that the pattern is capable of producing Nov snow. If this was December I would be freaking out a little. But it isn't so I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 d9-15 looks much better with the lw pattern. The ridging in AK pushes poleward and the trough in the conus narrows while the axis shifts into a favorable location compared to d7-9. There's also lower heights all the way down into Mexico. To me this implies the possibility of split flow during the period. The fun part is how stable the pattern appears. The vortex in Canada could sit and spin for a while so multiple spokes could drop down while the blocking remains in place. I know how rare Nov snow is but if you are going to get it, this is one of the patterns that can do it. At least for somebody out of the mountains and south of 40. euro11.19.GIF The real fun begins when the blocking ends up too strong and SC gets their second event of the year before Dec 1st while we enjoy blue skies and windy cold/dry air. Dang that pattern is tasty. And that's a full week after the big ARCTIC BOMB-FROPA OF POLAR VORTEX DOOM next week. That sort of longwave pattern is a naturally very stable one. It seems the odds are good that we're going to have a long duration of a strong -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 12z global runs will be telling. Yes. Will be cool showers or cold showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 most important runs of our lives coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 lol I just said that the pattern is capable of producing Nov snow. If this was December I would be freaking out a little. But it isn't so I'm not. Thats like some of the s got mixed in with the v...might as well have crappy mint chocolate chip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Where are all of the middle grounders...all we have are weenies trying to make it snow 10 days out and people working hard to tell them it can't and won't...i need me some vanilla...too much c and s not enough v I am a perpetual middle grounder. Easier than taking a stand. It might snow or might not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I am a perpetual middle grounder. Easier than taking a stand. It might snow or might not. Lol....post a map of your middle ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Lol....post a map of your middle ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Given the calendar, I think our best shot at some widespread light accumulation is something more like the POS strung-out mess the 12z GFS is showing for Day 7-8. A big wound up storm would probably bring in too much warmth of the Atlantic and torch the low-level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 GFS=monkey business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Note the Plains Days 9-10... enter arctic cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Note the Plains... cold GFS has a 1050hp dropping into the northern rockies. That's a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Note the Plains Days 9-10... enter arctic cold GFS has a 1050hp dropping into the northern rockies. That's a beast. Is there another push Day 9-10? Because that 1050mb high comes on Day 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Interesting system just misses Day 12 for us... too far east (hr 324 in fantasyland) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 12z GFS not too promising? EDIT: Nevermind, looks decent enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Is there another push Day 9-10? Because that 1050mb high comes on Day 4-5. Yes, another step down on the heels. Much better setup @ h5 to cook something up. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Dear lord the whole GFS run is a friggin icebox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 12z GFS Days 5 to 8 snowfall map is.... interesting 1" MRB 1-2" IAD 2" BWI/DCA 3-4" EZF/CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 12z GFS 192 hr total snowfall map is.... interesting 1" MRB 1-2" IAD 2" BWI/DCA 3-4" EZF/CHO That's not a bad deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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