WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 FWIW, I got a better look at the GFS Parallel, and Highzenberg's right. The p-type is wrong. Do you have the temp profile? Tropicaltidbits doesn't have 850 or surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Do you have the temp profile? Tropicaltidbits doesn't have 850 or surface temps. NCEP ftp has them in grib format Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Do you have the temp profile? Tropicaltidbits doesn't have 850 or surface temps. Surface is good, right around freezing right up to the Bay. 850s -4C for I-95. And, just for fun, it shows 5-7" for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Surface is good, right around freezing right up to the Bay. 850s -4C for I-95. And, just for fun, it shows 5-7" for the cities. Thanks! I'm guessing that's a step better than op? In other words, the tropicaltibits snow map would verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Thanks! I'm guessing that's a step better than op? Better as in more accurate? Or better as in more snow lol? Just saw your edit. WxBell and tropicaltidbits.com display snowfall differently, but they both show around 6" for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 GFS ensembles jumped on the idea of a storm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Better as in more accurate? Or better as in more snow lol? More snow in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Instantweathermaps has many of us on the edge from the op. Various precip types through the event to go along with it. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014110618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Instantweathermaps has many of us on the edge from the op. Various precip types through the event to go along with it. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014110618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=204 The reason is instantweathermaps shows 850 temps above freezing for the whole event. I don't know why that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 NCEP ftp has them in grib format Oy...don't care that much yet. Instantweathermaps has many of us on the edge from the op. Various precip types through the event to go along with it. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014110618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=204 That's the standard GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 don't you kid yourself Bob, you're huge at trolling I'm hurt Mitch. After all these years together... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 GFS ensembles jumped on the idea of a storm next weekend That's pretty good consistency for a 9-10 day leadtime. Anyone know what the Euro ensembles show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I'm hurt Mitch. After all these years together... nah, just do what everyone who knows me in real life does.....click ignore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 That's pretty good consistency for a 9-10 day leadtime. Anyone know what the Euro ensembles show? snow for everyone but JI's backyard (T minus 5....4....3....2...1.....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 That's pretty good consistency for a 9-10 day leadtime. Anyone know what the Euro ensembles show? EPS mean has 850s -5C down into southern MD. Also shows surface temps below freezing in that time frame, but it looks like the precip slides OTS. I hope Bob answers to clear all of this up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Mid-November fantasy storm? I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Somewhere around 15 euro members have a storm with decent precip in our area in the d8-11 time frame. Not much of a signal with member low placement plots but enough to keep it interesting. Models are still resolving the midweek frontal passage. Can't really expect much clarity yet. Odds of rain or dry are much higher than any frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yawn. Just coming out of hibernation. Anything happen in the last 8 months? I heard someone say cold and snow--that's my alarm clock! So really the signals are about as good as one can hope for over the next few weeks? Seems like it. Love to score early and often... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Lots of members with a storm, not many even marginally cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Lots of members with a storm, not many even marginally cold enough. Probably because it doesn't snow here in November. Well, here here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 You would think we'd get used to dancing to the D-10 tune and getting kicked in the throat halfway to the promised land. Call me when this is 3-5 days out. Might as well have reality kick us in the collective nutsack in November than when it really matters. That way, we'll be numb in the nether regions by the time we start thinking we have a shot at a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 You would think we'd get used to dancing to the D-10 tune and getting kicked in the throat halfway to the promised land. Call me when this is 3-5 days out. It's 9 days out, not 10 Like many others are saying, just seeing flakes in mid-November would be great and perfectly fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I think it's a display issue at the site where those graphics are being obtained. If you look at precip type forecasts at the NCEP site mageval.ncep.noaa.gov it's clear that the model post-processed precip type during that time period is snow. First issue with the Parallel GFS....The precip type charts show the precip type is rain for the day 9-10 low, but if you click snowfall accumulations it shows snowfall.....maybe something to pick up on now so that people don't get confused later. Wonder if it is a coding issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 00z GFS further south with it but looks like we eventually get some overrunning. Funny thing is it is not that far off from the February 2 1996 setup, just not as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 00z GFS further south with it but looks like we eventually get some overrunning. Funny thing is it is not that far off from the February 2 1996 setup, just not as cold. Remember the old gfs saying .... s&E... Just where you want it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Remember the old gfs saying .... s&E... Just where you want it lol. I don't want to post every model run, but 2m isotherms stay at or below freezing for D.C. with even stronger damming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 para ots, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I'm all in. lol. Getting real though, the chance is there. Pretty nice trough and seems like sharper and deeper has been the trend lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Euro has a few inches across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Euro has a few inches across the area. Yep, here is the full snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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