Heisy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 November 6-7 1953, while obviously an anomaly is a storm that proves it CAN snow in November. Surface looks good... low 30s. Glad to have something to track. Yeah, wouldn't worry about specifics, just knowing that we have a pattern which could potentially support snow is good enough for me to track this. First night staying up for the EURO, going to be a long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Well, we are overdue for a "black swan" storm in November...so let's see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 November 6-7 1953, while obviously an anomaly is a storm that proves it CAN snow in November. Yeah, wouldn't worry about specifics, just knowing that we have a pattern which could potentially support snow is good enough for me to track this. First night staying up for the EURO, going to be a long winter. Nope. It's just sometimes WeenieBell shows snow accum. only because it's cold enough aloft, so I like seeing the surface match up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 First night staying up for the EURO, going to be a long winter. Parallel GFS says don't waste any sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Parallel GFS says don't waste any sleep. Huh? You looking at right model? It shows a low going off the SE coast with plenty of cold air. Yeah, suppressed, but def shows a storm. Not expecting it to show a full blown MECS right now, just knowing there is something there is good enough for me 18z Par. GFS 198 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Huh? You looking at right model? It shows a low going off the SE coast with plenty of cold air. Yeah, suppressed, but def shows a storm. Not expecting it to show a full blown MECS right now, just knowing there is something there is good enough for me It's a complete whiff though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 November 6-7 1953, while obviously an anomaly is a storm that proves it CAN snow in November. Yeah, wouldn't worry about specifics, just knowing that we have a pattern which could potentially support snow is good enough for me to track this. First night staying up for the EURO, going to be a long winter. You serious, Clark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Are we all looking at the same thing? 18z 13km GFS shows a nice coastal storm but says it's rain for Day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Huh? You looking at right model? It shows a low going off the SE coast with plenty of cold air. Yeah, suppressed, but def shows a storm. Not expecting it to show a full blown MECS right now, just knowing there is something there is good enough for me 18z Par. GFS 198 hrs Dude. 192 hours. In early November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 It isn't a complete whiff, it ends up clipping most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Dude. 192 hours. In early November? You best get your game face on, Son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Dude. 192 hours. In early November? I'm sick I know....lucky for me is I'm an overnight poker dealer at a local casino so I'll be awake anyway for the EURO. Precip type maps show its rain, but it actually shows snowfall accumulation. It is def. not a whiff though brotha. Point is the same general pattern is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 First issue with the Parallel GFS....The precip type charts show the precip type is rain for the day 9-10 low, but if you click snowfall accumulations it shows snowfall.....maybe something to pick up on now so that people don't get confused later. Wonder if it is a coding issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I really suck at trolling. I think we can all agree on 3 things. It takes quite a perfect pattern including a well placed/timed vort to get Nov snow, upcoming pattern is a little interesting, and ops past 5 days are going to slide rugs under and pull them out every 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I really suck at trolling. I think we can all agree on 3 things. It takes quite a perfect pattern including a well placed/timed vort to get Nov snow, upcoming pattern is a little interesting, and ops past 5 days are going to slide rugs under and pull them out every 6-12 hours. It sure is fun though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Are we all looking at the same thing? 18z 13km GFS shows a nice coastal storm but says it's rain for Day 9-10. Where are you guys getting this model data? Is this the upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 It sure is fun though. Tonight's euro weeklies basically show a nice pattern weeks 3-4. Thanksgiving looks cold here. H5 look closing out Nov and into the first week of Dec would support an active and stormy pattern. The entire run never really loses the -ao look. Might be here to stay for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Where are you guys getting this model data? Is this the upgrade? Yeah, it's the upgrade. You can get it here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Tonight's euro weeklies basically show a nice pattern weeks 3-4. Thanksgiving looks cold here. H5 look closing out Nov and into the first week of Dec would support an active and stormy pattern. The entire run never really loses the -ao look. Might be here to stay for a while. That sounds like money in the bank. Cha-ching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I really suck at trolling. I think we can all agree on 3 things. It takes quite a perfect pattern including a well placed/timed vort to get Nov snow, upcoming pattern is a little interesting, and ops past 5 days are going to slide rugs under and pull them out every 6-12 hours. The big ones lock in early. #SNOvember Where are you guys getting this model data? Is this the upgrade? tropicaltidbits.com Yes, this is the new 13km GFS that will replace the current GFS as of next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Where are you guys getting this model data? Is this the upgrade? It's a higher resolution version of the GFS. Should replace the old operational in December. WxBell says Dec 17th but could be earlier. For now we get 2 versions of each run! Just pick the one you like and ride it. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Thanks guys for posting the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 It's a higher resolution version of the GFS. Should replace the old operational in December. WxBell says Dec 17th but could be earlier. For now we get 2 versions of each run! Just pick the one you like and ride it. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/ Regular GFS has a nice look for the same time, so why choose? I'll take a blend FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 It's a higher resolution version of the GFS. Should replace the old operational in December. WxBell says Dec 17th but could be earlier. For now we get 2 versions of each run! Just pick the one you like and ride it. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/ Will NCEP begin using this as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Regular GFS has a nice look for the same time, so why choose? I'll take a blend FTW. You're not kidding and a pretty strong signal for a storm of some sort exists on the ensembles as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Way out, but quite a CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I really suck at trolling. I think we can all agree on 3 things. It takes quite a perfect pattern including a well placed/timed vort to get Nov snow, upcoming pattern is a little interesting, and ops past 5 days are going to slide rugs under and pull them out every 6-12 hours. don't you kid yourself Bob, you're huge at trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Way out, but quite a CAD. :clap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 FWIW, I got a better look at the GFS Parallel, and Highzenberg's right. The p-type is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 FWIW, I got a better look at the GFS Parallel, and Highzenberg's right. The p-type is wrong. I have yet to see those maps with mixed frozen too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.