mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It's also been a consistent trend of more members jumping on board and not some freak run that goes 0-60. Euro op has temps in the mid to upper 30's and dropping through the heaviest precip and fall below freezing around the time precip exits. 850's aren't even close to being a problem. Even the ens mean has 0c well south at onset. Verbatim it's mostly a snow storm west of the bay but heavy rates are required for stickage until you get further west. typical early season scenario on the Euro if it is going to happen that's good to hear might be time to renew that Accuwx subscription Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That cold period is over today. This storm would be developing on the heels of 3 days of temps in the 50s and 60s, and at the beginning of a transition to a colder period. Those are usually rain. We get snow storms under those conditions all the time, actually. I will say it feels like old times to have the old negative CAPE back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 We get snow storms under those conditions all the time, actually. I will say it feels like old times to have the old negative CAPE back. Why dont you read more than one post before trolling. Hardly being negative to suggest that the Euro snow maps are wonky as usual, and that IF this storm develops, places N and W are the most likely to see snow because there will be a marginal air mass. And we get snow storms all the time after 3 warm days in November... as we transition into a colder period? Really? Lived here forever and never realized.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Approx. five days out from the event or non-event. EURU vs. GFS. Anyone remember which model locked on to the more correct solution the earliest last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro in general has done better than the gfs at medium leads with miller A's for quite a while. As far as locking into a yard specific solution, we aren't even close to that point yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 One things for sure after looking at all the runs this morning is it's going to get cold for that first week in December. Storm or no storm for Thanksgiving eve, the pattern screams below avg. temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 One things for sure after looking at all the runs this morning is it's going to get cold for that first week in December. Storm or no storm for Thanksgiving eve, the pattern screams below avg. temperatures. Sure looking that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Why dont you read more than one post before trolling. Hardly being negative to suggest that the Euro snow maps are wonky as usual, and that IF this storm develops, places N and W are the most likely to see snow because there will be a marginal air mass. And we get snow storms all the time after 3 warm days in November... as we transition into a colder period? Really? Lived here forever and never realized.. You just have this habit of repeating the obvious dozens of times. We got it, it's November. Anyway, we frequently have snowstorms where the day before was 50 degrees. Happens every season just about yet it never stops people from saying it means a storm can't happen. If all levels are cold enough and it precipitates hard enough it can stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 One things for sure after looking at all the runs this morning is it's going to get cold for that first week in December. Storm or no storm for Thanksgiving eve, the pattern screams below avg. temperatures. From around the 3rd onward it looks like moderation to normal then quite warm from what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 whew, you really want to diss this thing for whatever reason I'm talking the cold pattern we've been in that has featured warm-ups (as in Thursday when it reached the low-mid 50's!) after next weekend, all the models show a regime change that has been well discussed in this thread, and that is what I'm referring to Dude I am not dissing anything. Just posting my thoughts. Take away those snow clown maps and read the model verbatim, and surface temps are marginal. Based on that, looks like rain, ending as snow in the usual places. Just one possible solution obviously, and take your pick at this point. Nothing is etched in stone. A primary issue with this set up obviously is timing the cold air, as we will be just coming out of period of a few very mild days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 You just have this habit of repeating the obvious dozens of times. We got it, it's November. Anyway, we frequently have snowstorms where the day before was 50 degrees. Happens every season just about yet it never stops people from saying it means a storm can't happen. If all levels are cold enough and it precipitates hard enough it can stick. Well I wasnt referring to the warmth irt the ground being too warm. Yeah that is BS. But these scenarios where a wave is developing along a front AS the colder air is arriving are always dicey. Many times we get a cold rain waiting for the surface temps to drop and it happens too late in the event. Of course this favors the usual places like Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well I wasnt referring to the warmth irt the ground being too warm. Yeah that is BS. But these scenarios where a wave is developing along a front AS the colder air is arriving are always dicey. Many times we get a cold rain waiting for the surface temps to drop and it happens too late in the event. Of course this favors the usual places like Westminster. However, isn't a changeover also influenced by how wound up the storm gets and when. Timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GFS still advertising monster warm up starting 12/1...50s/60s all week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GFS still advertising monster warm up starting 12/1...50s/60s all week... Last night's Euro esnembles also liked the diea of a warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GFS still advertising monster warm up starting 12/1...50s/60s all week... Kinda looking like a lock right now. Guidance stopped moving it forward and has been pretty much locked on the idea starting mid first week of Dec. We're probably going to have to endure a crappy pac pattern for a little while. Have no idea how long. Probably longer than anyone wants. Which is 1 day so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm on board for the turkey day train, wow @ 0Z Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Last night's Euro esnembles also liked the diea of a warm up. Kinda looking like a lock right now. Guidance stopped moving it forward and has been pretty much locked on the idea starting mid first week of Dec. We're probably going to have to endure a crappy pac pattern for a little while. Have no idea how long. Probably longer than anyone wants. Which is 1 day so... yes...all guidance is steadfast that we warm next sunday/monday and it lasts at least 5-6 days...65 for mid week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 From around the 3rd onward it looks like moderation to normal then quite warm from what I'm seeing. Yeah, my bad Bob. I looked at the wrong thing and now I see what you're seeing. My apologies. It's not until the week after when the cold comes back as the ridge out west amplifies. And even that is still a ways away. At least it'll feel nice walking to my classes for one last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well, this so called great pattern produced exactly squat. Don't think we should sweat a 10 day modeled poor one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well, this so called great pattern produced exactly squat. Don't think we should sweat a 10 day modeled poor one. it's november 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 it's november 22nd Right...we are on the same page. I don't expect anything now....and I'm not concerned about a warm first week of December that may or may not even happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Starting to see a dent in the torch armor down the line. Low height anomalies building underneath the Aleutian ridge and ridging starting to show up in the goa/West coast. Pretty strong scand/ak ridge bridge signal during d11-15. Were pretty warm during that period but looks like things may start improving around or after the first weekend of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Starting to see a dent in the torch armor down the line. Low height anomalies building underneath the Aleutian ridge and ridging starting to show up in the goa/West coast. Pretty strong scand/ak ridge bridge signal during d11-15. Were pretty warm during that period but looks like things may start improving around or after the first weekend of Dec. Canadian 10 day ensemble says we average below normal through the 10 days, and is even a touch cooler than the prior run http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro ens starting to get ridge happy over eastern Siberia/ak and nice +height anomaly right over the pole late in the run. Goa trough replaced with ridging. I can extrapolate a -ao/+pna setting up...lol I'll gladly embrace the torch if that's the pattern that sets up during the second week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 ENSO 3 & 3.4 ticked up a tenth this week Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05NOV2014 21.9 0.5 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9 12NOV2014 22.4 0.9 25.8 0.9 27.5 0.8 29.5 0.9 19NOV2014 22.6 0.8 26.0 1.0 27.5 0.9 29.5 0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 While DEC may end up being good, most of the models are advertising a pretty good torch the first week of DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 While DEC may end up being good, most of the models are advertising a pretty good torch the first week of DEC Yeah, we'll probably have some really warm days in there, but the pattern is evolving nicely I think. GEFS advertising strong ridging over the pole to be maintained and the Aleutian low looks like it's reforming after Day 12 along with a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GEFS mean looks very nice in the long range with the Aleutian low/-EPO combo with a mean trough over the eastern CONUS reestablishing post Day 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GEFS mean looks very nice in the long range with the Aleutian low/-EPO combo with a mean trough over the eastern CONUS reestablishing post Day 12. Yea, euro ens last night continue to show the progression of low heights building underneath the aleutian ridge and the scand ridge reasserting. From the looks of things right now, the mild period will be broken up with a couple fronts. Certainly not a snow pattern during the first week of Dec but not wall to wall warm. My wag is a cold outbreak in the center of the country kicks off the transition to a better pattern sometime during the 2nd week of Dec. PNA looks to go positive. One missing thing is the NAO but we're used to that. Maybe a repeat of progressive flow with frequent cold shots and brief moderation in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro ensemble run is pretty ugly today in the lr. Keeps the goa/ak trough running strong through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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