T. August Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 18z GFS was close to being something, but just a bit too east for us west of the Bay. According to WeenieBell snow maps, the Eastern Shore gets 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 my wag is that our winter has shown its hand it will relax after T'giving for 2-3 weeks, then come and stay and the late DEC-FEB version should yield us AN snow all that and for absolutely no cost to the reader....what a deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro has a coastal bomb. Temperature marginal for now, but it's close enough for interest. Could be a 32-33 heavy snow event. Loads of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I know these suck in marginal scenarios, but woah.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I know these suck in marginal scenarios, but woah.... Even half that amount would be chaos for holiday travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I know these suck in marginal scenarios, but woah.... Can you post the whole view for the eastern half of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Can you post the whole view for the eastern half of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Can you post the whole view for the eastern half of the country Thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro ENS not bad. 51 member avg 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 ^http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44939-thanksgiving-eve-coastal/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 lol..just saw the euro....like 1.25" QPF for DC......would probably be a nice snow event for the western elevated burbs once it changes over..too bad it is still saturday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 ^ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44939-thanksgiving-eve-coastal/ too early....I'm using this thread..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 too early....I'm using this thread..... Agree. At this point its a low probability event- models are all over the place. Also its likely to be a rain event if it does materialize. And those Euro snow maps, lol. Just worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Agree. At this point its a low probability event- models are all over the place. Also its likely to be a rain event if it does materialize. And those Euro snow maps, lol. Just worthless. 6z GFS is a whiff. With the EURO depicting a more vigorous storm, the odds of it drawing in colder air makes some sense, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 6z GFS is a whiff. With the EURO depicting a more vigorous storm, the odds of it drawing in colder air makes some sense, right? Maybe for places at elevation NW, there could be some snow at the end. But there really isn't much cold air available. Plus its November and the water temps are warm etc. Unless you buy into some anomalously deep low with a perfect track, climo strongly favors rain for most of the region, if it develops at all. I dont think the Canadian shows any precip onshore, GFS brushes us then backs off run to run . There is still time, but I am betting on a whiff or a brush then a nice Turkey day with temps in the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Maybe for places at elevation NW, there could be some snow at the end. But there really isn't much cold air available. Plus its November and the water temps are warm etc. Unless you buy into some anomalously deep low with a perfect track, climo strongly favors rain for most of the region, if it develops at all. I dont think the Canadian shows any precip onshore, GFS brushes us then backs off run to run . There is still time, but I am betting on a whiff or a brush then a nice Turkey day with temps in the upper 40s. at least 2 other mets will disagree with you about lack of cold air available, I'll follow them!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 and the Euro looks to have a clipper following the storm with some light snow and bitter cold but I'm still worried about the warm up in DEC!!! ah....NO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 at least 2 other mets will disagree with you about lack of cold air available, I'll follow them!! They wouldn't be disagreeing with me lol. Look at the guidance. The air mass at that time, especially at the surface, is marginal. If that wave were to develop and moisture gets far enough inland, then places with some elevation on the NW edge would have a shot at some snow or a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I just looked ta the Wunderground Euro snow maps to see how far off the WxBell maps were (gulp).....about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 2 6z GEFS members get significant precip back to us and 2 more have sprinkles/flurries maybe. I saw someone say the Euro ens mean had 2", but can someone say if that's representative of most members giving us precip? Or is it biased by a couple that look like the Op and most that are OTS? I'm guessing the later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I just looked ta the Wunderground Euro snow maps to see how far off the WxBell maps were (gulp).....about the same Those maps should be banned lol. Esp the Euro ones. I think I already have received close to 8 inches of Euro modeled snow this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Those maps should be banned lol. Esp the Euro ones. I think I already have received close to 8 inches of Euro modeled snow this month. most of the models show a storm of some sort obviously the details will be worked out over the next few days, but what the Euro operational shows is one of those possibilities is a significant snow, so there's no reason not to discuss it and as we all know, every storm is different so earlier modeled snow has no bearing on this or other future storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 2 6z GEFS members get significant precip back to us and 2 more have sprinkles/flurries maybe. I saw someone say the Euro ens mean had 2", but can someone say if that's representative of most members giving us precip? Or is it biased by a couple that look like the Op and most that are OTS? I'm guessing the later... About half have some snow and 8 or so have over 6 inches but then the euro snow algorithm way overdoes snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 most of the models show a storm of some sort obviously the details will be worked out over the next few days, but what the Euro operational shows is one of those possibilities is a significant snow, so there's no reason not to discuss it and as we all know, every storm is different so earlier modeled snow has no bearing on this or other future storms With the Euro it does. It typically overdoes snowfall. So part of the discussion should acknowledge that flaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 one other thing, this storm comes at the end of a cold period so storms before a change/relaxation are not unusual and some have been pretty big over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 one other thing, this storm comes at the end of a cold period so storms before a change/relaxation are not unusual and some have been pretty big over the years That cold period is over today. This storm would be developing on the heels of 3 days of temps in the 50s and 60s, and at the beginning of a transition to a colder period. Those are usually rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 In my weenie eyes the GFS and Euro are night and day with their handling of the two short waves. GFS digs the N wave to Chicago...Euro digs to Memphis. Whats 500 mile between friends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 About half have some snow and 8 or so have over 6 inches but then the euro snow algorithm way overdoes snow. Thanks Wes. That's better than I imagined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That cold period is over today. This storm would be developing on the heels of 3 days of temps in the 50s and 60s, and at the beginning of a transition to a colder period. Those are usually rain. whew, you really want to diss this thing for whatever reason I'm talking the cold pattern we've been in that has featured warm-ups (as in Thursday when it reached the low-mid 50's!) after next weekend, all the models show a regime change that has been well discussed in this thread, and that is what I'm referring to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Thanks Wes. That's better than I imagined. It's also been a consistent trend of more members jumping on board and not some freak run that goes 0-60. Euro op has temps in the mid to upper 30's and dropping through the heaviest precip and fall below freezing around the time precip exits. 850's aren't even close to being a problem. Even the ens mean has 0c well south at onset. Verbatim it's mostly a snow storm west of the bay but heavy rates are required for stickage until you get further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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