Deck Pic Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z GEFS is somewhat bullish on a mild-up starting Monday 12/1...at or above...but the signal at this range is for above, not as much spread among the members as you would think.....week of 12/1 - 12/5 will be a good test for the models....I'd lean warm.. 50s every single day from 12/1 - 12/5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 0z euro scraped us. There's been some ensemble support building but still plenty of spread. I think the shorter lead time that they models are showing should garner attention. But yes, we are still 5-6 days away. I did not know about that Euro run. I'm still leaning on the side of heavy caution until there's more support. Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I did not know about that Euro run. I'm still leaning on the side of heavy caution until there's more support. Thanks for the info! bizarro GFS gives DC 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z GEFS is somewhat bullish on a mild-up starting Monday 12/1...at or above...but the signal at this range is for above, not as much spread among the members as you would think.....week of 12/1 - 12/5 will be a good test for the models....I'd lean warm.. Yup...but it's different yet again from just the 6z GEFS mean. I think saying normal to slightly above normal is probably the right call for the first week of December right now. But with the ridging over the pole still being advertised, the frigid air is not that far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z Euro gives DC ~0.15" from the coastal on Wednesday, but pretty sure it would be all or mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z Euro gives DC ~0.15" from the coastal on Wednesday, but pretty sure it would be all or mostly rain Yea, it's -3-4 850's but the surface sucks. It would be rain for sure. Especially with sprinkle rates. It's a bit quicker as well compared to last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Energy on the backside is handled completely different vs 00z run. Will be interesting to see what the surface does post 132hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Look at day 7 on EURO creates new coastal from the northern energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Look at day 7 on EURO creates new coastal from the northern energy Yea, first piece faster this run and clears out so the trailing piece is free to do what it wants. Uncertainty abounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Cold rain and then colder rain. Can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Look at day 7 on EURO creates new coastal from the northern energy Cold rain and then colder rain. Can't wait! yes..it's just more light sprinkles, Thanksgiving night..hard to stumble into snow even in late November...we need a real setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 yes..it's just more light sprinkles, Thanksgiving night..hard to stumble into snow even in late November...we need a real setup... No doubt it's hard. Probably why it almost never happens. lol. But the biggest culprit is climo is still pretty warm so temps will almost always ruin it even with a decent setup. However, the airmasses dropping in are way below climo so there's at least that. It probably won't matter what any model says through the weekend before we can call it off. 2 pieces of energy, sharp trough, very cold air available. It's a worthy set of ingredients even if climo/odds are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 At least there's a chance of a chance. More than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 The analysis in here reminds me of last winter where we worriedly followed the day 10+ "warm-ups" and missed the snowstorms before that until they were right on top of us. Always looking at a pattern that's 10 days away.....a perfect way to make winter seem like it lasts a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 lol Miller B love from the Euro. I'll take a decent vort pass early Friday morning that might give us some flurries to a dusting. At least it will make the next week interesting for tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Cold rain and then colder rain. Can't wait! Summer will be back soon and then we can fail on severe weather again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Waiting for the MJO or SSW to "get things right" is usually a big flag. Not saying that's the case here at all. I just never like hearing that we need to wait for the mjo or ssw. Brings back bad memories. Bob, I'm with you about the MJO. Model forecasts of it are notoriously bad, at least that's how it seems to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 When I look at the Dec's for Nino's that were not great winters v/s great winters there is a clear difference. I agree it seemed like the 11-15 day range for next week on the Euro was warm and now it's cold but I would like to see some blocking develop as we get into Dec. Most nino winters but not all do have a positive AO rather than negative one. I think I have a composite with more years than our's that bears out that relationship. It's a tad early to get too worrry about the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Most nino winters but not all do have a positive AO rather than negative one. I think I have a composite with more years than our's that bears out that relationship. It's a tad early to get too worrry about the blocking. They usually feature a period of blocking during JF I think even if the seasonal mean is +? GEFS has been all over the place with trying to figure out whether the upcoming +AO period during the end of the month has legs or not. The last 3 runs in a row keep showing more members returning to a -AO during the d10-15 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Wait...after all of the tracking and talk about how the Siberian snow cover and advance promote a - AO is there really concern now that the AO could end up positive? Not questioning it just feels wonky reading that now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 They usually feature a period of blocking during JF I think even if the seasonal mean is +? GEFS has been all over the place with trying to figure out whether the upcoming +AO period during the end of the month has legs or not. The last 3 runs in a row keep showing more members returning to a -AO during the d10-15 period. What I meant and was trying to say is most bad snow nino years have a positive AO while the good ones have a negative one which is what his composites showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Wait...after all of the tracking and talk about how the Siberian snow cover and advance promote a - AO is there really concern now that the AO could end up positive? Not questioning it just feels wonky reading that now? I still think it likely that the Ao will end up more negative than positive this winter but inseasonal forecasting there are no sure things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I still think it likely that the Ao will end up more negative than positive this winter but inseasonal forecasting there are no sure things. Thanks Wes...wasn't questioning just sometimes the board discussion can be a bit bi polar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro ens support the op with a scraper first and a trailing wave getting organized off the coast. Both are east with the better precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro ens support the op with a scraper first and a trailing wave getting organized off the coast. Both are east with the better precip. Important thing is they have both storms and they came west a tad. Interesting 00z runs to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 What I meant and was trying to say is most bad snow nino years have a positive AO while the good ones have a negative one which is what his composites showed. Gotchya, Misread what you were saying. I would guess a +AO/Nino combo is shorts and golf around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Gotchya, Misread what you were saying. I would guess a +AO/Nino combo is shorts and golf around here. I know most of us are not hung up on whether Dec starts off cold but I think it is important we see some blocking developing in Dec and that it averages negative as a whole for the month to set the tone for the rest of the winter. For example, for JB's analogs, of the 10 nino's, 9 of them had Dec with a -AO and the tenth was neutral (86-87). For CWG's 4 primary analogs, all of those had -AO for Dec. We are still 10 days away from Dec starting and DT had a good twitter post today about the AO and how the models in the LR keep calling for a +AO and yet it ends up negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro ens support the op with a scraper first and a trailing wave getting organized off the coast. Both are east with the better precip. The Ens. mean snow total through d7 is 1-2" for the I-95 corridor. I know it's skewed by some of the members showing 12-18" lol, but it's still a good thing that a lot of members are showing decent precip coming ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The Ens. mean snow total through d7 is 1-2" for the I-95 corridor. I know it's skewed by some of the members showing 12-18" lol, but it's still a good thing that a lot of members are showing decent precip coming ashore. Yea, it's a huge jump from 0z though so there's that as well. About half the members show an inch or more in my yard. Warmup is definitely starting to look legit. Pretty much the entire conus is AOA from the 2nd-6th and probably beyond based on the setup at the end of the run. I doubt wall to wall or anything but if the alueutian ridge/GOA trough verifies then it would be hard not to have some warm days regardless of the state of the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Important thing is they have both storms and they came west a tad. Interesting 00z runs to say the least. I love that type of talk. What will be interesting though will be how soon the models lock on to the eventual correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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