WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I know the word has been burned out but persistence forecasting is more right than d11-15 looks on the ensembles the last week or so. It wasn't that long ago when the "relaxation" on guidance should be knocking on the door right now. It's just not materializing. Even though ensembles are looking pretty putrid on all guidance d11-15, it may end up just being another couple day thing as troughing in the goa/west coast warms us up in front of a another big cold shot. I'm fairly confused on what to think. We have AN heights plastered all over most of the country (especially the eastern half) down the line for 4+ days but it's hard just throw hands up and agree with it. GEFS, at least, really can't figure it out. 18z yesterday and 0z GEFS mean had well AN heights for us around hour 300. 6z GEFS mean completely takes that away. The handling of the Aleutian ridge also seems inconsistent. Maybe this is MJO-related. Right now I'd favor modestly below normal temps from next Wednesday through the end of the month on Sunday, but after that, I think it's anybody's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 somebody remind me again what kind of winter we had in 95/96....not that 66/67 was too shabby either That's yesterday's superGEFS mean. Great consistency with today's. Model's got this forecast locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That's yesterday's superGEFS mean. Great consistency with today's. Model's got this forecast locked in. 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif They have been jumping around. The ens mean looks cold through around the end of the month but the 1st week on Dec looks warmish or normal at best. The euro ens clustering shows 5 different clusters with the top one only having around 1/3 of the members. Most however, have our heights above normal during the 11-15 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 As you go out past the 3rd, the pattern remains a tough one to call. The ens mean looks like it would warm the middle of the coutnry quite a bit. The NAEFS still are calling for near normal temps through their forecast period for much of the country. Guidance has been pretty locked into various but similar looks but it keeps getting pushed out in time. The building aluetian ridge is weird for a nino but it does in fact seem like a lock that it's going to materialize. The down stream trough in the GOA "should" warm us up. Especially when a storm enters the west coast. This d11-15 h5 mean is pretty ugly for just about everyone who likes cold and snow east of the MS river. But that ridge bridge looks keeps the high latitudes in a great position to dump cold air into the conus. Also, I'm not sure if I know what I'm talking about but when you see a mean like this, I usually assume the flat look in the conus is because of large spread evening things out. I kinda assume it means timing troughs and ridges on the members are timed differently making things look much flatter that reality. My complete and total WAG is the first week of December will continue to be volatile temp wise. Storm track may suck so we get warm in advance of storms going west but no wall to wall warm because the fronts behind any system will tap cold canadian air. And even bigger complete and total wag rolling beyond the first week is that the GOA trough will progress and ridging will form out west and the pattern re-amplifies here. Not implying a good snow pattern, just one that turns colder. I think it's fair to say that some sort of relaxation is favored within 2 weeks vs continuous strong cold hp's and bn temps. And I hope this guess busts terribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Canadian 10 day ensemble mean.....average'ish to slightly below (I know, the cold from today is in there, but still not a bad look over 10 days) http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Guidance has been pretty locked into various but similar looks but it keeps getting pushed out in time. The building aluetian ridge is weird for a nino but it does in fact seem like a lock that it's going to materialize. The down stream trough in the GOA "should" warm us up. Especially when a storm enters the west coast. This d11-15 h5 mean is pretty ugly for just about everyone who likes cold and snow east of the MS river. But that ridge bridge looks keeps the high latitudes in a great position to dump cold air into the conus. Also, I'm not sure if I know what I'm talking about but when you see a mean like this, I usually assume the flat look in the conus is because of large spread evening things out. I kinda assume it means timing troughs and ridges on the members are timed differently making things look much flatter that reality. euro5day.GIF My complete and total WAG is the first week of December will continue to be volatile temp wise. Storm track may suck so we get warm in advance of storms going west but no wall to wall warm because the fronts behind any system will tap cold canadian air. And even bigger complete and total wag rolling beyond the first week is that the GOA trough will progress and ridging will form out west and the pattern re-amplifies here. Not implying a good snow pattern, just one that turns colder. I think it's fair to say that some sort of relaxation is favored within 2 weeks vs continuous strong cold hp's and bn temps. And I hope this guess busts terribly. When I look at the Dec's for Nino's that were not great winters v/s great winters there is a clear difference. I agree it seemed like the 11-15 day range for next week on the Euro was warm and now it's cold but I would like to see some blocking develop as we get into Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Gah...Mitch didn't upload the file, just linked it and now my beautiful comparison makes no sense. Bob and Wes: the folks in SNE who follow the MJO more than I make a nice argument that the Aleutian ridge is MJO-driven. Once the MJO progresses a little it should get better. GFS and GEFS take the MJO back into the COD while the Euro takes it through phases 3 and 4 and towards 5. Phases 1,7-8 are the cold ones for us this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Waiting for the MJO or SSW to "get things right" is usually a big flag. Not saying that's the case here at all. I just never like hearing that we need to wait for the mjo or ssw. Brings back bad memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Xbox is darn near showing an M rating for Wed-thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 PGFS about to go off the chains lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Para says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 So the gfs is quicker/less amplified and too far SE. Xbox digs for gold and pops good coastal. Both have a trailing vort right afterwards with light snow possibilities. White holiday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The analysis in here reminds me of last winter where we worriedly followed the day 10+ "warm-ups" and missed the snowstorms before that until they were right on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The analysis in here reminds me of last winter where we worriedly followed the day 10+ "warm-ups" and missed the snowstorms before that until they were right on top of us. Yep others and I have mentioned this, pretty interesting. Warm-ups never seemed to come to fruition, and snowstorms would pop up out of no where in the medium range. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Para says. Right where all 7 day storms are...on the fringe of Leesburg...I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Heh, if that second trailing piece of energy diving down from the great lakes was a little quicker it would basically phase overhead with the coastal. One can dream right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Heh, if that second trailing piece of energy diving down from the great lakes was a little quicker it would basically phase overhead with the coastal. One can dream right? Ensembles don't agree J/K Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Heh, if that second trailing piece of energy diving down from the great lakes was a little quicker it would basically phase overhead with the coastal. One can dream right? Haha thinking the same thing, wish we had some blocking cause that scenario would be P003-ish What "could" happen is the vort slows down enough goes positively tilted faster and allows for that lobe to catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The models can't get storms right within 48 hrs half the time as we know. This could turn into a bomb or be nothing. Fun part is we have something to track and it is only November. Let the chaos begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Haha thinking the same thing, wish we had some blocking cause that scenario would be P003-ish What "could" happen is the vort slows down enough goes positively tilted faster and allows for that lobe to catch up One of the fun and not frustrating things about progressive flow is that real threats can only show their face at medium-short leads. We're still at the latter part of medium leads but it's interesting to see some op consensus inside of 6 days and also the CPC analogs showing some storms. Of course this pattern is way more ripe for heartbreaks than locks but this is becoming a legitimate period and not some fantasy in a jacked up pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Thanksgiving just isn't the same without cold rain then dry wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Move over PDII, it's time for TDI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GGEM advertising an arctic blast Thanksgiving weekend on Day 8... 1039 H in Midwest and below zero temperatures show up in the Northern Plains and gets reinforced by Day 9 as a 1042 H moves into MT with -30 degree 2m temps in extreme northern MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 For once I'm going to do my best to disregard the weenie in me. Is this not the first solution any model has popped a close call coastal for this time frame? I think it's a little ridiculous how much attention a single run of the para GFS is getting a week away even for a holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Ensembles don't agree J/K Bob P07 is mad at you for saying that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 For once I'm going to do my best to disregard the weenie in me. Is this not the first solution any model has popped a close call coastal for this time frame? I think it's a little ridiculous how much attention a single run of the para GFS is getting a week away even for a holiday. Last night's EURO showed it as well, though farther offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 For once I'm going to do my best to disregard the weenie in me. Is this not the first solution any model has popped a close call coastal for this time frame? I think it's a little ridiculous how much attention a single run of the para GFS is getting a week away even for a holiday. 0z euro scraped us. There's been some ensemble support building but still plenty of spread. I think the shorter lead time that they models are showing should garner attention. But yes, we are still 5-6 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z GEFS is somewhat bullish on a mild-up starting Monday 12/1...at or above...but the signal at this range is for above, not as much spread among the members as you would think.....week of 12/1 - 12/5 will be a good test for the models....I'd lean warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GGEM advertising an arctic blast Thanksgiving weekend on Day 8... 1039 H in Midwest and below zero temperatures show up in the Northern Plains and gets reinforced by Day 9 as a 1042 H moves into MT with -30 degree 2m temps in extreme northern MTSounds like the start of an 1899 winter redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Sounds like the start of an 1899 winter redux Most of it gets kept in the Plains... we get a piece of the arctic air but nothing truly arctic GGEM Days 7-10 basically bring us cold and dry weather... boring weather, except at 240, where GGEM tries for some light overrunning precip methinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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