Heisy Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 18z GFS just jumped on board to the EURO. Just in the overall idea of the pattern...HR 174 looks like a fairly good looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Canadian has the storm next weekend too.. And -41F in the Plains... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Talk about a WILD change, look at the difference between the 18z GFS pattern and the 12z's.... 174: 180: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 IF the shortwave over the GL can cause some good confluence it may end up showing a snowstorm next weekend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Not much member support for the d9+ euro storm but surprisingly there is growing support for some wintry precip d7. 1" of snow on the means but mostly due to some big hits. Which are suspect at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I guess the warm-up is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I guess the warm-up is gone. Nope, it's holding firmly in the d11-15 range where it's been for days. The 12z euro and gefs ensemble runs suck for the first 5 days of Dec but there's no reason to have any confidence in it. The runs still have the scandinavian and ak ridge during the period and that's what keeps driving these cold hp's due south. If the warm up gets inside of 8-9 days we can go ahead and cancel winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Weeklies basically take the warm idea from d11-15 and continue it for 2 more weeks. Lowest heights out west and zonal/weak ridging east. But they still keep the same general pattern near the pole that we have now. Not identical of course but ridging signal from ak to scandinavia and into eastern Greenland. I'm not getting sucked in at all. No cool/cold pattern for 2-3 weeks? Nah. EtA: upon closer inspection the ridging n of ak shifts towards Siberia but low heights never establish near the pole during weeks 3-4. And it's likely wrong anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Gfs ens members are really all over the place for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 00z euro had a D9 triple phaser over lake Erie. 12z doesn't bomb it until the New Foundland for some reason. Something to watch. The long range pattern advertised is somewhat better than what was shown yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Nope, it's holding firmly in the d11-15 range where it's been for days. The 12z euro and gefs ensemble runs suck for the first 5 days of Dec but there's no reason to have any confidence in it. The runs still have the scandinavian and ak ridge during the period and that's what keeps driving these cold hp's due south. If the warm up gets inside of 8-9 days we can go ahead and cancel winter. As long as it holds firmly for day 11-15 with every run I'm good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 somebody remind me again what kind of winter we had in 95/96....not that 66/67 was too shabby either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 As long as it holds firmly for day 11-15 with every run I'm good.. Models always rush pattern changes so I bet it does stay at that range for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That is better than looking at Kim Kardashian. get rid of those concave sunglasses bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GFS has some snow around the 29th. About same time frame as other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GGEM also shows a light snowfall next weekend. We await the EURO lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I am going to gather that the 1005 L the EURO has at Day 6 (144 hrs) is good enough for some rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro has a snow event same time. Nov- 27-29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Cold front clears Wednesday and a low forms on the tail end. Temps look cold enough but can't tell how much precip falls after they do if any at all. This is a severe thread the needle type solution that I would not buy (though the 00z GFS almost had it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The guidance seems pretty consistent that the first couple days of December will be vodka cold or tropically warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The guidance seems pretty consistent that the first couple days of December will be vodka cold or tropically warm. At least there will be weather! 100% chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 P003, k, thanks http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/f144.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Going to be really hard to thread the needle for a big coastal on Thanksgiving. Flow is just way too fast with no upstream blocking. I think odds are better that one of the little vortmaxes behind that one give us some flurries on Thanksgiving night or Black Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Cold front clears Wednesday and a low forms on the tail end. Temps look cold enough but can't tell how much precip falls after they do if any at all. This is a severe thread the needle type solution that I would not buy (though the 00z GFS almost had it) It's probably cold rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's probably cold rain..... My yesterday's CWG article was not a good one except for expressing uncertainty. Last night's run makes week after Thanksgiving look colder than normal on the latest european and its ensembles. It more or less has jumped towards the GFS. I probably also was too bearish about the chances of snow, the CPC superensemble 5 day mean analog identified 3 snow events so if anything, the pattern is above normal for snow. This time of year, the odds for getting snow are low but in this pattern aren't non-existent. Anyway, that's my update from yesterdays' discussion. Anyway, my discussion an analysis from yesterday were pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 My yesterday's CWG article was not a good one except for expressing uncertainty. Last night's run makes week after Thanksgiving look colder than normal on the latest european and its ensembles. It more or less has jumped towards the GFS. I probably also was too bearish about the chances of snow, the CPC superensemble 5 day mean analog identified 3 snow events so if anything, the pattern is above normal for snow. This time of year, the odds for getting snow are low but in this pattern aren't non-existent. Anyway, that's my update from yesterdays' discussion. Anyway, my discussion an analysis from yesterday were pretty bad. I haven't read it yet, but will...it is a tough pattern to nail, and it almost never snows in November anyway.....maybe we could sneak in something mid week through next weekend....probably would be next weekend....to me the 1st week of december looks at or above normal, but that is far from a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The guidance seems pretty consistent that the first couple days of December will be vodka cold or tropically warm. this winter will show its hand in the next couple of weeks, namely, is it going to be bias cold regardless of medium and long range modeling or should we expect regular warming with a bias to warm I vote cold in light of all the lr indicators interesting that the CFS2 is painting a very wet December along the east coast with average temps; give me AN precip in any of the 3 winter months and I'll roll the dice with it....but that's not to say the CFS2 will be right for DEC, but the Euro seasonal model painted the strip of AN precip along the east coast too, sooooo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is east of the op for the wed-thurs deal. This is probably a good thing if we stand any chance. A more impressive piece of data is that 850's are -5 on the means @ hr 144. 0c line way south near NC. -5 on the means is fairly impressive. Warmup firmly planted at d11+ still. Ensembles look bad in the d11-15 range but considering what's been happening the last week or 2 it's not really worth discussing. Ridge bridge look is also firmly planted d11-15. ETA: euro ens now show both the ao/nao to dip negative on the 28-30th. First time it's shown that during the period lately. I suppose the pattern is more interesting for the holiday weekend than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 My yesterday's CWG article was not a good one except for expressing uncertainty. Last night's run makes week after Thanksgiving look colder than normal on the latest european and its ensembles. It more or less has jumped towards the GFS. I probably also was too bearish about the chances of snow, the CPC superensemble 5 day mean analog identified 3 snow events so if anything, the pattern is above normal for snow. This time of year, the odds for getting snow are low but in this pattern aren't non-existent. Anyway, that's my update from yesterdays' discussion. Anyway, my discussion an analysis from yesterday were pretty bad. I know the word has been burned out but persistence forecasting is more right than d11-15 looks on the ensembles the last week or so. It wasn't that long ago when the "relaxation" on guidance should be knocking on the door right now. It's just not materializing. Even though ensembles are looking pretty putrid on all guidance d11-15, it may end up just being another couple day thing as troughing in the goa/west coast warms us up in front of a another big cold shot. I'm fairly confused on what to think. We have AN heights plastered all over most of the country (especially the eastern half) down the line for 4+ days but it's hard just throw hands up and agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I know the word has been burned out but persistence forecasting is more right than d11-15 looks on the ensembles the last week or so. It wasn't that long ago when the "relaxation" on guidance should be knocking on the door right now. It's just not materializing. Even though ensembles are looking pretty putrid on all guidance d11-15, it may end up just being another couple day thing as troughing in the goa/west coast warms us up in front of a another big cold shot. I'm fairly confused on what to think. We have AN heights plastered all over most of the country (especially the eastern half) down the line for 4+ days but it's hard just throw hands up and agree with it. As you go out past the 3rd, the pattern remains a tough one to call. The ens mean looks like it would warm the middle of the coutnry quite a bit. The NAEFS still are calling for near normal temps through their forecast period for much of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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