WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro pushing back the relaxation again. Improvements with more ridging near the pole and the scand ridge is stronger on last nights run. PV is displaced further south the yesterday's 12z run. IMHO- any relaxation will be simply a period of troughing in the GOA and west coast but there won't be a big ridge response east because the scand ridge will block the pv in Canada from running away. The major LW features should remain pretty favorable for cold air intrusions to continue. They may be centered in the west for a time and that's fine. I'm less convinced now that we get a pac flood in early Dec that I have been the last few days. The aluetian ridge is pretty prominent in d11-15 and has been on guidance. It's a nina'ish pattern that i don't think will have legs to persist through the month of Dec. Best case scenario would be for the aluetian low/trough to return while the ridging presses poleward. Just speculating with low confidence but if that were to happen, we would transition into a -ao/epo config sometime in Dec. I think your feeling is the correct one. I think we stay in this pattern of cold/dry then warm/wet with a cutter then cold/dry for another couple weeks. The cold periods might be less cold if a -PNA does set up for a couple days, but I'm not convinced that happens. Last night's Euro Op has a huge dump of arctic air at Day 10 again behind a cutter. Certainly a +AO does not seem in the cards in any scenario, so Canada stays frigid and snow-covered as we want it. As you said, hopefully this up-and-down pattern only continues for another 2-3 weeks and then by ~10 Dec a more consistent pattern sets up. Still, the later we go in the year, the more chance that we can sneak a small snow event in-between cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 OP EURO/GFS are woooorlds apart....EURO ens doesn't agree with OP though The euro ensemble mean shows HP where the op has a big low d9-10. Very little support for a sig storm during that period as of right now. I doubt the euro op will hold the solution for 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I think your feeling is the correct one. I think we stay in this pattern of cold/dry then warm/wet with a cutter then cold/dry for another couple weeks. The cold periods might be less cold if a -PNA does set up for a couple days, but I'm not convinced that happens. Last night's Euro Op has a huge dump of arctic air at Day 10 again behind a cutter. Certainly a +AO does not seem in the cards in any scenario, so Canada stays frigid and snow-covered as we want it. As you said, hopefully this up-and-down pattern only continues for another 2-3 weeks and then by ~10 Dec a more consistent pattern sets up. Still, the later we go in the year, the more chance that we can sneak a small snow event in-between cutters. Exactly where my head is at. Well put and good post. Right now I'm not chasing snow, I'm chasing away a hostile pattern as we go into Dec. Dec is a fun month. Things can turn on a dime sometimes. A -pna is far from a big deal as long as the high latitudes don't go to hell. Not seeing any signs of that right now...thankfully... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 last year, November ended at -2.9 degrees at BWI, and this Novie is on a similar pace, yet it still took until December 8 last year to see snow of consequence at BWI I think we're on a good pace right now to see some accumulating snow at BWI/DCA/IAD by 12/15 if we do, it's victory living in this snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Both the Atari and Xbox GFS' have a very cold post-holiday weekend. Any mildish pattern on the GEFS is still pushed into December. hahaha. Well done. And with the advent of the Xbox GFS, we can finally be proud of our American Weather Models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Pretty major changes on the 12z old GFS, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Xbox has an interesting little vort coming down the back side of the trough after fropa next week. Some flurries and light snow near the area. H5 is very amplified on the run. Hopefully that look continues as we move forward in time. ETA: lol- take a look at p06 gefs @ hr 132. It's not the only one either. The vort thur-fri has some support too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Xbox has an interesting little vort coming down the back side of the trough after fropa next week. Some flurries and light snow near the area. H5 is very amplified on the run. Hopefully that look continues as we move forward in time. ETA: lol- take a look at p06 gefs @ hr 132. It's not the only one either. The vort thur-fri has some support too. Seems safe to say, at the moment, that Thanksgiving will be chilly. Maybe 40-45 for highs and upper 20s for lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Seems safe to say, at the moment, that Thanksgiving will be chilly. Maybe 40-45 for highs and upper 20s for lows? At least phineas can cook his turkey fully clothed now...I know he was worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 At least phineas can cook his turkey fully clothed now...I know he was worried I remain cautious and with guarded confidence that I will not have to wear a light t-shirt and mesh shorts with the A/C turned on while basting my bird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Does anyone like a warm Thanksgiving? When you wake up to stifling heat in your bedroom, open the door outside and hear birds chirping, bugs flying around, fallen leaves are all wet and soggy from the tropical humidity... who wants that? Like Christmas in Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I remain cautious and with guarded confidence that I will not have to wear a light t-shirt and mesh shorts with the A/C turned on while basting my bird. I am picturing Cousin Eddie making some food! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 Xbox has an interesting little vort coming down the back side of the trough after fropa next week. Some flurries and light snow near the area. H5 is very amplified on the run. Hopefully that look continues as we move forward in time. ETA: lol- take a look at p06 gefs @ hr 132. It's not the only one either. The vort thur-fri has some support too. I'm not going to lol that one just yet. Yesterday at 18z P003 looked just like those two at 12z today. Longshot, sure. Impossible, no. I look forward to hearing you discuss Euro members later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I'm not going to lol that one just yet. Yesterday at 18z P003 looked just like those two at 12z today. Longshot, sure. Impossible, no. I look forward to hearing you discuss Euro members later today. I think we should discuss the 12z euro op run I think the euro bumped into the cras this morning and did a little of this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Does anyone like a warm Thanksgiving? When you wake up to stifling heat in your bedroom, open the door outside and hear birds chirping, bugs flying around, fallen leaves are all wet and soggy from the tropical humidity... who wants that? Like Christmas in Miami. I'm with you. The only thing worse than a warm T-day is a warm Christmas. A couple of recent T-days (2011 & 2012) were exactly as you described. Miserable. Absolutely hoping for a slate grey sky, chilly day with a threat of some flakes in the evening, followed by an absolute Arctic dump the following day. I want to stand outside shivering with hands so cold they burn, and frozen snotcicles hanging from my nose while I finish my outside decorating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 First explicit model map of the season? I think we should discuss the 12z euro op run lol.GIF I think the euro bumped into the cras this morning and did a little of this: lolz.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Reminds me of last season... Looks like a warm up is on deck then boom snow threat appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 First explicit model map of the season? It's a terrible setup. Marginal airmass, no hp to the N, narrow strip running a front. Basically a wave riding a front with weak lp off the coast. These types of deals are almost always cold air rushing in after the rain shuts off. All the euro did was show a extremely low prob of threading/timing something. At least the run showed another big cold airmass plowing in D9-10. That's believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 Can we start a thread and tally the Euro 8-10 day snow totals through March? It would top the snow total in the Cascades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 With both the gfs ens and the Euro showing "something" 7-10 days out, I don't think you just dismiss anything. It will interesting to see what the Euro ens have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 It's a terrible setup. Marginal airmass, no hp to the N, narrow strip running a front. Basically a wave riding a front with weak lp off the coast. These types of deals are almost always cold air rushing in after the rain shuts off. All the euro did was show a extremely low prob of threading/timing something. At least the run showed another big cold airmass plowing in D9-10. That's believable. What day is that snow map for? Next Saturday? I don't see anything on the crappy PSU ewall Euro maps that scream snow to me. The epic cold dump on Day 10 has been showing up off/on around next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Bob, you just made people go crazy. I wonder how soon before I see it in a FB page??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 What day is that snow map for? Next Saturday? I don't see anything on the crappy PSU ewall Euro maps that scream snow to me. The epic cold dump on Day 10 has been showing up off/on around next weekend. Overnight Friday into Saturday. Verbatim the weekend looks like this: Mid 40's Tday Mid 50's Friday (return flow ahead of the arctic front that passes late Fri night) Mid 20's/low 30's Sat with snow Single digits/teens Sat night Sunday looks like a bitter cold and windy day for time of year Of course one op run verbatim doesn't mean that much but there is good support for a pretty cold shot at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The 12z EURO operational @ HR 240 has some impressive cold air lurking over Quebec. There is a sizable area of -25 degree air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Overnight Friday into Saturday. Verbatim the weekend looks like this: Mid 40's Tday Mid 50's Friday (return flow ahead of the arctic front that passes late Fri night) Mid 20's/low 30's Sat with snow Single digits/teens Sat night Sunday looks like a bitter cold and windy day for time of year Of course one op run verbatim doesn't mean that much but there is good support for a pretty cold shot at the end of the month. At Hr 240, the 12z Euro has our 850 temps around -18C. Xbox GFS has them around 5C. Models really can't figure out what happens after next Tuesday or so, although they all end up with about the same sensible weather for Thanksgiving ironically. A big cold dump after a cutter/Aps runner (as shown on the Euro) is consistent with the pattern we've been in. I won't buy the Aleutian ridge/-PNA/Bermuda high pattern advertised by the GEFS, among others, until it's inside Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 At Hr 240, the 12z Euro has our 850 temps around -18C. Xbox GFS has them around 5C. Models really can't figure out what happens after next Tuesday or so, although they all end up with about the same sensible weather for Thanksgiving ironically. A big cold dump after a cutter/Aps runner (as shown on the Euro) is consistent with the pattern we've been in. I won't buy the Aleutian ridge/-PNA/Bermuda high pattern advertised by the GEFS, among others, until it's inside Day 10. Yea, I agree. There's been some persistence with cold shots. No reason to doubt this one. 0z Euro ens mean had 850's around -5 on Sunday the 30th. That's pretty cold for an ensemble mean. Around 5-6C below normal. I'm not buying the big warmup either. For all we know it's a 3 day deal before some big cutter flips the switch again. Who knows. I probably gave the snow storm to bad of a rap. It's actually more plausible (although still very unlikely) than I first gave it credit for. The weak low forms down in SC before scooting up. It's elongated and weak but verbatim on the run it has precip a good bit after the midlevels get decent. If the setup verified in some fashion we would be equally at risk for full on rain with the low passing west or dry as it slides east. There is some weak ensemble support during the d8-10 range with around 9 members or so showing frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Overnight Friday into Saturday. Verbatim the weekend looks like this: Mid 40's Tday Mid 50's Friday (return flow ahead of the arctic front that passes late Fri night) Mid 20's/low 30's Sat with snow Single digits/teens Sat night Sunday looks like a bitter cold and windy day for time of year Of course one op run verbatim doesn't mean that much but there is good support for a pretty cold shot at the end of the month. It'll happen. I'll be in SC..coming back Saturday Enjoy everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 It'll happen. I'll be in SC..coming back Saturday Enjoy everyone. Thanks..........take one for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I'm leaving for Fairbanks, AK tomorrow myself. I'll be there for a week or so for the holiday. If it snows in the MA and not in AK, I will go insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Canadian has the storm next weekend too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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