WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Well, it's like you said earlier....weenie 101....choose the wettest and coldest models. When long range isn't what we want...chuck it...haha. Speaking of...0z Euro and 12z GFS-13km have nice arctic blasts post-Thanskgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Speaking of...0z Euro and 12z GFS-13km have nice arctic blasts post-Thanskgiving. You conveniently left out the 12z euro has a black friday bermuda high and the ensembles agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Speaking of...0z Euro and 12z GFS-13km have nice arctic blasts post-Thanskgiving. But they look transitory and the pattern still doesn't look good for snow. In the long run that's probably neither a bad nor good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 You conveniently left out the 12z euro has a black friday bermuda high and the ensembles agree You were more blunt. They don't look real cold but also don't look torchy but certaintly don't look good for early snow for whatever that is worth. I'm scheduled for another CWG article Thursday. Hope the pattern looks more exciting by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 You were more blunt. They don't look real cold but also don't look torchy but certaintly don't look good for early snow for whatever that is worth. I'm scheduled for another CWG article Thursday. Hope the pattern looks more exciting by then. Uncertainty is very high right now for the holiday weekend and beyond. I don't envy your next outlook. I discounted the 12z euro late period digging west trough/ridge east. Thought nothing of it. Then the ensembles gave that idea some big support and made me scratch my head. Usually when you see a brand new idea late in an op run it doesn't get much support. I agree with you about cold vs warm. Might be a bit of a roller coaster. I don't see much hope for snow but we're still 3 weeks from real climo so I can easily deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 You conveniently left out the 12z euro has a black friday bermuda high and the ensembles agree But they look transitory and the pattern still doesn't look good for snow. In the long run that's probably neither a bad nor good thing. We were speaking of cherry-picking the solutions we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I'd be just fine with a blazing furnace until about December 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 the Canadian 10 day ensemble temp forecast has led the way and saw the cold coming before the other models in Novie this is last night's run and so it obviously includes the cold of this week, but it is still decently cold even considering http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 We were speaking of cherry-picking the solutions we want. Wooosh....lol 4 euro members showed snow on the 27-30th. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 Wooosh....lol 4 euro members showed snow on the 27-30th. Book it. That's better than none. What are they showing now? The GFS members (3 or so) show a little system passing through in the next Fri/Sat time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 That's better than none. What are they showing now? The GFS members (3 or so) show a little system passing through in the next Fri/Sat time frame. I can't get the member graph to pop up on my phone but the mean has less than an inch so some members are showing something. Euro op has a weak little wave dropping a dusting to half inch on thurs. 6z para has a stronger version showing a couple inches up I95. Weak waves after fronts stand a much better chance at dropping a little snow than deeper systems. Looks like we have something to casually watch. Snow falling on a holiday sounds pretty fun to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 BWI -2.4 DCA -1.1 IAD -4.0 Temp departures so far in November...does the early week heat next week wipe out the growing negatives? BWI -3.8 DCA -1.8 IAD -4.8 I will say there was a stretch the last many years where IAD had a ton of trouble getting any negative departures but that trend sure has changed the last two years or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I can't get the member graph to pop up on my phone but the mean has less than an inch so some members are showing something. Euro op has a weak little wave dropping a dusting to half inch on thurs. 6z para has a stronger version showing a couple inches up I95. Weak waves after fronts stand a much better chance at dropping a little snow than deeper systems. Looks like we have something to casually watch. Snow falling on a holiday sounds pretty fun to me. 6z GFS-13km is tasty all the way to the end. 0z Euro has a nice longwave pattern at Day 10 as well and the 6z GEFS agrees with ridging into Alaska around Day 9-12. That's quite a reversal from the last couple days. As we all said, a -EPO/-AO/Scand. ridge combo is very stable and the pattern break down is getting punted past Day 12 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 6z GFS-13km is tasty all the way to the end. 0z Euro has a nice longwave pattern at Day 10 as well and the 6z GEFS agrees with ridging into Alaska around Day 9-12. That's quite a reversal from the last couple days. As we all said, a -EPO/-AO/Scand. ridge combo is very stable and the pattern break down is getting punted past Day 12 again. Typical model bias and something worth noting. When I looked at the 6z Xbox GFS and the ENS, I thought I was looking at a 3 day old model run. Looks like a pretty -AO until the last few frames of the run. Greenland stays very torchy. However, the high heights over Alaska seem pretty locked in even on the EPS, which has an overall slight improvement in the LR versus the last 3 runs or so. A true pattern reload is inevitable in the next 2.5 weeks IMO and one could argue you'd like to have it the first few days of December rather than having it punted to December 6-7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 6z GFS-13km is tasty all the way to the end. 0z Euro has a nice longwave pattern at Day 10 as well and the 6z GEFS agrees with ridging into Alaska around Day 9-12. That's quite a reversal from the last couple days. As we all said, a -EPO/-AO/Scand. ridge combo is very stable and the pattern break down is getting punted past Day 12 again. Yea, 0z euro ensembles look ok going into Dec. The aleutian ridge isn't a big deal because ridging is pushing all the way through and N of AK. Still don't like seeing it though...lol. Very glad to see the low heights around AK going away. Scand ridge looks to push all the way into GL during d11-15. All of Canada looks cold during during that period as well. A fair guess would be to continue to see-saw with no long duration cold or warm winning out. Cold shots should continue to be pretty cold. If we can get some stable blocking to set up things would get interesting pretty quick. At least timing something would be on the table with cold hp's pressing down from time to time. Probably the most important thing is that no models showing the vortex in Canada retreating to the pole. Both the GEFS and euro ensembles keep it wobbling from just north of Hudson to SE canada over the next 2 weeks. Cold delivery will always be relatively nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Typical model bias and something worth noting. When I looked at the 6z Xbox GFS and the ENS, I thought I was looking at a 3 day old model run. Looks like a pretty -AO until the last few frames of the run. Greenland stays very torchy. The high heights over Alaska seem pretty locked in even on the EPS, which has an overall slight improvement in the LR versus the last 3 runs or so. A pattern reload is inevitable in the next 2.5 weeks IMO and one could argue you'd like to have it the first few days of December rather than having it punted to December 6-7th. Excellent points. It's been choppy on all guidance in the LR. The AO is likely going to relax towards the end of the month but as you said, it could end up being more brief that what is being shown. There is realy nothing to worry about irt a hostile pattern taking shape attm. Boring is one thing but hostile is a different beast all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Warm-ups keep getting pushed back. Good news. Relaxation is a good thing since we get our good storms on the swings up or down. How often do we get good storms during a week of oppressive cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Both the Atari and Xbox GFS' have a very cold post-holiday weekend. Any mildish pattern on the GEFS is still pushed into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I can't keep up with all of these different GFS versions anymore. I'll stick with my NEO GEO version. It tells me we'll have seasonal temps for thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 lol. the 12Z new and coming version of the GFS has a really cold high with an wave suppressed at 240 hours while the 12Z euro has a low at the same time over the great lakes. Thee euro also has a wave crashing into western Canada to shut off the cold air behind the great lakes low. That's gonna infuse me with lots of confidence going forward with an outlook tomorrow. I'll certainly be playing the ensembles tommorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 lol. the 12Z new and coming version of the GFS has a really cold high with an wave suppressed at 240 hours while the 12Z euro has a low at the same time over the great lakes. Thee euro also has a wave crashing into western Canada to shut off the cold air behind the great lakes low. That's gonna infuse me with lots of confidence going forward with an outlook tomorrow. I'll certainly be playing the ensembles tommorrow. One of the harder week 2 forecasts in a while. At least Tday looks chilly 40's and dry. That's the most important date in many reader's minds. Euro is waffling around with the big dig out west d9-10. 0z op and ensembles dropped the idea from yesterday's 12z run but now the op brings back a different version. No fun for writing an article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 One of the harder week 2 forecasts in a while. At least Tday looks chilly 40's and dry. That's the most important date in many reader's minds. Euro is waffling around with the big dig out west d9-10. 0z op and ensembles dropped the idea from yesterday's 12z run but now the op brings back a different version. No fun for writing an article. The op has been pretty consistent the last few runs in pumping heights in the east around the 28th. It has certainly backed off the wall to wall torch it had a few runs ago. It looks fairly transient from Thanksgiving on. The 0z EPS is not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 12z eps remains fairly ho-hum d11-15. Scand ridge signal grows stronger and pushes well into greenland. Pretty flat/zonal in the conus but that's probably due to large spread in solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I'd rather go ahead and get a relax in the pattern over with now rather than push it into prime snow climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 I'll take P003 from the 18z gfs....thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I'll take P003 from the 18z gfs....thank you Euro ens now have 9 members showing some mood snow on the 26-27th. Xbox is sticking to the idea of a sneaky little wave of some sort. Better than tracking shorts weather for the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Yesterday had a nice #2 analog for Day 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Yesterday had a nice #2 analog for Day 11 ...or the 8th one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro pushing back the relaxation again. Improvements with more ridging near the pole and the scand ridge is stronger on last nights run. PV is displaced further south the yesterday's 12z run. IMHO- any relaxation will be simply a period of troughing in the GOA and west coast but there won't be a big ridge response east because the scand ridge will block the pv in Canada from running away. The major LW features should remain pretty favorable for cold air intrusions to continue. They may be centered in the west for a time and that's fine. I'm less convinced now that we get a pac flood in early Dec that I have been the last few days. The aluetian ridge is pretty prominent in d11-15 and has been on guidance. It's a nina'ish pattern that i don't think will have legs to persist through the month of Dec. Best case scenario would be for the aluetian low/trough to return while the ridging presses poleward. Just speculating with low confidence but if that were to happen, we would transition into a -ao/epo config sometime in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 OP EURO/GFS are woooorlds apart....EURO ens doesn't agree with OP though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.