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November Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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You conveniently left out the 12z euro has a black friday bermuda high and the ensembles agree

 

 

You were more blunt.  They don't look real cold but also don't look torchy but certaintly don't look good for early snow for whatever that is worth.  I'm scheduled for another CWG article Thursday.  Hope the pattern looks more exciting by then. 

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You were more blunt. They don't look real cold but also don't look torchy but certaintly don't look good for early snow for whatever that is worth. I'm scheduled for another CWG article Thursday. Hope the pattern looks more exciting by then.

Uncertainty is very high right now for the holiday weekend and beyond. I don't envy your next outlook. I discounted the 12z euro late period digging west trough/ridge east. Thought nothing of it. Then the ensembles gave that idea some big support and made me scratch my head. Usually when you see a brand new idea late in an op run it doesn't get much support.

I agree with you about cold vs warm. Might be a bit of a roller coaster. I don't see much hope for snow but we're still 3 weeks from real climo so I can easily deal with it.

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You conveniently left out the 12z euro has a black friday bermuda high and the ensembles agree

 

 

But they look transitory and the pattern still doesn't look good for snow.  In the long run that's probably neither a bad nor good thing.

 

We were speaking of cherry-picking the solutions we want.  

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That's better than none.

What are they showing now? The GFS members (3 or so) show a little system passing through in the next Fri/Sat time frame.

I can't get the member graph to pop up on my phone but the mean has less than an inch so some members are showing something.

Euro op has a weak little wave dropping a dusting to half inch on thurs. 6z para has a stronger version showing a couple inches up I95.

Weak waves after fronts stand a much better chance at dropping a little snow than deeper systems. Looks like we have something to casually watch. Snow falling on a holiday sounds pretty fun to me.

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BWI -2.4

DCA -1.1

IAD -4.0

Temp departures so far in November...does the early week heat next week wipe out the growing negatives?

BWI -3.8

DCA -1.8

IAD -4.8

I will say there was a stretch the last many years where IAD had a ton of trouble getting any negative departures but that trend sure has changed the last two years or so...

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I can't get the member graph to pop up on my phone but the mean has less than an inch so some members are showing something.

Euro op has a weak little wave dropping a dusting to half inch on thurs. 6z para has a stronger version showing a couple inches up I95.

Weak waves after fronts stand a much better chance at dropping a little snow than deeper systems. Looks like we have something to casually watch. Snow falling on a holiday sounds pretty fun to me.

6z GFS-13km is tasty all the way to the end.  0z Euro has a nice longwave pattern at Day 10 as well and the 6z GEFS agrees with ridging into Alaska around Day 9-12.  That's quite a reversal from the last couple days.  As we all said, a -EPO/-AO/Scand. ridge combo is very stable and the pattern break down is getting punted past Day 12 again. 

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6z GFS-13km is tasty all the way to the end.  0z Euro has a nice longwave pattern at Day 10 as well and the 6z GEFS agrees with ridging into Alaska around Day 9-12.  That's quite a reversal from the last couple days.  As we all said, a -EPO/-AO/Scand. ridge combo is very stable and the pattern break down is getting punted past Day 12 again. 

 

Typical model bias and something worth noting.  When I looked at the 6z Xbox GFS and the ENS, I thought I was looking at a 3 day old model run.  Looks like a pretty -AO until the last few frames of the run.  Greenland stays very torchy.  However, the high heights over Alaska seem pretty locked in even on the EPS, which has an overall slight improvement in the LR versus the last 3 runs or so.

 

A true pattern reload is inevitable in the next 2.5 weeks IMO and one could argue you'd like to have it the first few days of December rather than having it punted to December 6-7th.

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6z GFS-13km is tasty all the way to the end. 0z Euro has a nice longwave pattern at Day 10 as well and the 6z GEFS agrees with ridging into Alaska around Day 9-12. That's quite a reversal from the last couple days. As we all said, a -EPO/-AO/Scand. ridge combo is very stable and the pattern break down is getting punted past Day 12 again.

Yea, 0z euro ensembles look ok going into Dec. The aleutian ridge isn't a big deal because ridging is pushing all the way through and N of AK. Still don't like seeing it though...lol.

Very glad to see the low heights around AK going away. Scand ridge looks to push all the way into GL during d11-15. All of Canada looks cold during during that period as well. A fair guess would be to continue to see-saw with no long duration cold or warm winning out. Cold shots should continue to be pretty cold. If we can get some stable blocking to set up things would get interesting pretty quick. At least timing something would be on the table with cold hp's pressing down from time to time.

Probably the most important thing is that no models showing the vortex in Canada retreating to the pole. Both the GEFS and euro ensembles keep it wobbling from just north of Hudson to SE canada over the next 2 weeks. Cold delivery will always be relatively nearby.

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Typical model bias and something worth noting. When I looked at the 6z Xbox GFS and the ENS, I thought I was looking at a 3 day old model run. Looks like a pretty -AO until the last few frames of the run. Greenland stays very torchy. The high heights over Alaska seem pretty locked in even on the EPS, which has an overall slight improvement in the LR versus the last 3 runs or so.

A pattern reload is inevitable in the next 2.5 weeks IMO and one could argue you'd like to have it the first few days of December rather than having it punted to December 6-7th.

Excellent points. It's been choppy on all guidance in the LR. The AO is likely going to relax towards the end of the month but as you said, it could end up being more brief that what is being shown. There is realy nothing to worry about irt a hostile pattern taking shape attm. Boring is one thing but hostile is a different beast all together.

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lol.  the 12Z new and coming version of the GFS has a really cold high with an wave suppressed at 240 hours while the 12Z euro has a low at the same time over the great lakes.  Thee euro also has a wave crashing into western Canada to shut off the cold air behind the great lakes low. That's gonna infuse me with lots of confidence going forward with an outlook tomorrow.    I'll certainly be playing the ensembles tommorrow.  

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lol.  the 12Z new and coming version of the GFS has a really cold high with an wave suppressed at 240 hours while the 12Z euro has a low at the same time over the great lakes.  Thee euro also has a wave crashing into western Canada to shut off the cold air behind the great lakes low. That's gonna infuse me with lots of confidence going forward with an outlook tomorrow.    I'll certainly be playing the ensembles tommorrow.  

 

One of the harder week 2 forecasts in a while. At least Tday looks chilly 40's and dry. That's the most important date in many reader's minds. 

 

Euro is waffling around with the big dig out west d9-10. 0z op and ensembles dropped the idea from yesterday's 12z run but now the op brings back a different version. No fun for writing an article. 

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One of the harder week 2 forecasts in a while. At least Tday looks chilly 40's and dry. That's the most important date in many reader's minds. 

 

Euro is waffling around with the big dig out west d9-10. 0z op and ensembles dropped the idea from yesterday's 12z run but now the op brings back a different version. No fun for writing an article. 

The op has been pretty consistent the last few runs in pumping heights in the east around the 28th.  It has certainly backed off the wall to wall torch it had a few runs ago.  It looks fairly transient from Thanksgiving on.  The 0z EPS is not so sure.

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Euro pushing back the relaxation again. Improvements with more ridging near the pole and the scand ridge is stronger on last nights run. PV is displaced further south the yesterday's 12z run. 

 

IMHO- any relaxation will be simply a period of troughing in the GOA and west coast but there won't be a big ridge response east because the scand ridge will block the pv in Canada from running away. The major LW features should remain pretty favorable for cold air intrusions to continue. They may be centered in the west for a time and that's fine.  I'm less convinced now that we get a pac flood in early Dec that I have been the last few days.

 

The aluetian ridge is pretty prominent in d11-15 and has been on guidance. It's a nina'ish pattern that i don't think will have legs to persist through the month of Dec. Best case scenario would be for the aluetian low/trough to return while the ridging presses poleward. Just speculating with low confidence but if that were to happen, we would transition into a -ao/epo config sometime in Dec.  

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