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November Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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What do you think of the Day 10?  I only have instantweathermaps but a weak low in Texas, marginal 850's, and it doesn't look like it could cut west of us.  Any precip with it?  Probably slide right through the se I suppose.

Yeah, it's a decent setup as modeled, but the Euro likes Day 10 unicorns.  

 

It's more of a wave running up a boundary than a coastal. Narrow stripe of precip in general. Only scrapes the eastern shore. Surface well above freezing and no hp to the north. Not a promising setup or worth watching tbh.

Bummer, ok, thanks.  

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Euro weeklies show a ho-hum pattern during the first half of Dec. Aleutian ridge/goa trough for the most part. Some blocking at the pole though so not a warm pattern here. Nothing anomalous and just kinda boring. Not something to get excited about in the snow dept.

However, the weeklies totally missed the big cold outbeak(s) we're in right now. It would hardly surprise me if a fast flip happens anytime in early Dec. For now it's watch and wait until something makes it interesting again

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BWI -2.4

DCA -1.1

IAD -4.0

Temp departures so far in November...does the early week heat next week wipe out the growing negatives?

Not likely. We're going to put up some serious negs through Sat but it will make a dent though. It's only 3 days and it's looking fairly likely that we score some more negs over the long weekend.

On another note...AOA start to Dec seems to be coming into focus. Nothing tragic on the pattern but there's a pretty clear signal that we lose the aleutian low for a while. Pac air may dominate for a period.

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Not likely. We're going to put up some serious negs through Sat but it will make a dent though. It's only 3 days and it's looking fairly likely that we score some more negs over the long weekend.

On another note...AOA start to Dec seems to be coming into focus. Nothing tragic on the pattern but there's a pretty clear signal that we lose the aleutian low for a while. Pac air may dominate for a period.

 

I guess the CFS was sort of right with the GOA trough pumping in Pacific air...hopefully that pattern doesn't hold beyond December though.

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I guess the CFS was sort of right with the GOA trough pumping in Pacific air...hopefully that pattern doesn't hold beyond December though.

 

If I remember this correctly, isn't this what happened in the leadup to the 12/13 winter? Very cold November and then December blowtorched after being flooded with warm Pacific air? 

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FWIW, the 12 GFS ENS look a bit cooler than the previous runs in the medium range.  End of the month may not be as warm as advertised, but there is no strong signal either way.  The first few days of December look seasonable as well.  After that there is a countrywide torch in the later frames, but the good news is that it keeps getting punted back.

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The models will frequently be wrong this winter with thier 7+ day introduction of very mild air. They are set up to figure that after bitter cold must come some mild.  The recent departed high did not give us any return mild flow, it was replaced by even colder air which is here now.  This cold high will move to a position where it does introduced mild air for just a day or two, then cold again. I think this will be our basic set up into Feb.

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FWIW, the 12 GFS ENS look a bit cooler than the previous runs in the medium range. End of the month may not be as warm as advertised, but there is no strong signal either way. The first few days of December look seasonable as well. After that there is a countrywide torch in the later frames, but the good news is that it keeps getting punted back.

I compared the last 3 12z runs in the d13-16 range. While the pattern still looks pretty boring entering Dec, there has been some notable changes from having low heights plastered over and N of AK to signs of ridging poking up. This is pretty important if we don't want to get stuck in a pac air regime for an extended period. The euro shows this feature as well but it's more amplified.

Having the aleutian ridge is a net negative but I could envision having nw canada load up with cold air, dump it southward into rockies/middle of the country, and then have the pattern shift with ridging out west again. Just a way out there total WAG but at least logical...lol

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I've yet to see any evidence that there exists a weather model that can consistently predict weather 2 weeks in advance.

 

Because of that, I couldn't care less what any model shows for the first of December.  Someone a while back pointed out that November looked warm when it was in the long range.  IIRC, Bob made a post outlining what the models showed for November, and that it looked warm.  I even remarked that it would be interesting to see how the warm forecast verified.

 

There's no reason to be down about December or the winter.

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I've yet to see any evidence that there exists a weather model that can consistently predict weather 2 weeks in advance.

Because of that, I couldn't care less what any model shows for the first of December. Someone a while back pointed out that November looked warm when it was in the long range. IIRC, Bob made a post outlining what the models showed for November, and that it looked warm. I even remarked that it would be interesting to see how the warm forecast verified.

There's no reason to be down about December or the winter.

I agree and disagree. We're a long ways away from models predicting accurate backyard sensible weather in the 10 day to 2 week timeframe (epsecially operational models) but the ensembles do a really good job at times with key long wave features at longer leads. This cold period was very well modeled at 10+ day leads. I think the Nuri affected the strength of it but it was likely going to happen regardless. I'll defer on that topic but the storm sent some shockwaves into the atmosphere at high latitudes.

Transitional months are really tough. November/December and March/April in particular. Mid season months may have higher verification but I have no data to back it up. The summer cool shots were very well modeled at long leads as was a warm September. Do I think long range ensembles struggle at times? Heck yea. They are right now with the end of Nov into early Dec. Uncertainty is high.

As far as Dec goes, I'm not down on it at all. I'm only concerned about wasting Dec 5th climo snow.

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I agree and disagree. We're a long ways away from models predicting accurate backyard sensible weather in the 10 day to 2 week timeframe (epsecially operational models) but the ensembles do a really good job at times with key long wave features at longer leads. This cold period was very well modeled at 10+ day leads. I think the Nuri affected the strength of it but it was likely going to happen regardless. I'll defer on that topic but the storm sent some shockwaves into the atmosphere at high latitudes.

Transitional months are really tough. November/December and March/April in particular. Mid season months may have higher verification but I have no data to back it up. The summer cool shots were very well modeled at long leads as was a warm September. Do I think long range ensembles struggle at times? Heck yea. They are right now with the end of Nov into early Dec. Uncertainty is high.

As far as Dec goes, I'm not down on it at all. I'm only concerned about wasting Dec 5th climo snow.

And the word I used is consistently.  They failed for November.

 

Your posts #1495 and #1498 in the Winter Thread are evidence.  Not picking on you or your posts, just saying that I don't trust long range predictions........from anywhere.

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I agree and disagree. We're a long ways away from models predicting accurate backyard sensible weather in the 10 day to 2 week timeframe (epsecially operational models) but the ensembles do a really good job at times with key long wave features at longer leads. This cold period was very well modeled at 10+ day leads. I think the Nuri affected the strength of it but it was likely going to happen regardless. I'll defer on that topic but the storm sent some shockwaves into the atmosphere at high latitudes.

Transitional months are really tough. November/December and March/April in particular. Mid season months may have higher verification but I have no data to back it up. The summer cool shots were very well modeled at long leads as was a warm September. Do I think long range ensembles struggle at times? Heck yea. They are right now with the end of Nov into early Dec. Uncertainty is high.

As far as Dec goes, I'm not down on it at all. I'm only concerned about wasting Dec 5th climo snow.

 

Agreed…a lot of people are not going to believe the seasonal/warm/weeklies model runs in the 10+ timeframe after what happened this month.   I think the Ens do fairly well from the 10k ft view but unless they show cold this winter people are going to point to this November to refute them.

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And the word I used is consistently. They failed for November. Your posts #1495 and #1498 in the Winter Thread are evidence. Not picking on you or your posts, just saying that I don't trust long range predictions........from anywhere.
I agree. Nov was a fail on the weeklies and there were no signs of things suddenly flipping until near the end of Oct. The weeklies had the aleutian low but later in the month.

 

 We experienced a very sharp and abrupt pattern change. That will never be shown on any monthly or seasonal model. The ensembles are far from perfect at nailing long lead stuff but they are quite useful. The score some impressive victories as well as busts.

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Agreed…a lot of people are not going to believe the seasonal/warm/weeklies model runs in the 10+ timeframe after what happened this month. I think the Ens do fairly well from the 10k ft view but unless they show cold this winter people are going to point to this November to refute them.

But they basically killed it from July-October. That won't be remembered though.

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