Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 ooh, euro has low 70's on Mon-Tues. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 ooh, euro has low 70's on Mon-Tues. Bring it! Haha, that'll probably get winter canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 What do you think of the Day 10? I only have instantweathermaps but a weak low in Texas, marginal 850's, and it doesn't look like it could cut west of us. Any precip with it? Probably slide right through the se I suppose. Yeah, it's a decent setup as modeled, but the Euro likes Day 10 unicorns. It's more of a wave running up a boundary than a coastal. Narrow stripe of precip in general. Only scrapes the eastern shore. Surface well above freezing and no hp to the north. Not a promising setup or worth watching tbh. Bummer, ok, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Can't wait until we hit 70 on Wednesday Or Monday or Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Euro ensembles look more GEFS like to start Dec. December may come in like a lamb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Euro weeklies show a ho-hum pattern during the first half of Dec. Aleutian ridge/goa trough for the most part. Some blocking at the pole though so not a warm pattern here. Nothing anomalous and just kinda boring. Not something to get excited about in the snow dept. However, the weeklies totally missed the big cold outbeak(s) we're in right now. It would hardly surprise me if a fast flip happens anytime in early Dec. For now it's watch and wait until something makes it interesting again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Ugh... Let's get the warm surge over with early in the week. By turkey day, things may well be below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Let's get the warm surge over with early in the week. By turkey day, things may well be below normal. Yup....any warmth early next week looks to get wiped out by Wed. That should set the stage for a Thanksgiving that is at or below normal temp wise. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 BWI -2.4 DCA -1.1 IAD -4.0 Temp departures so far in November...does the early week heat next week wipe out the growing negatives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 BWI -2.4 DCA -1.1 IAD -4.0 Temp departures so far in November...does the early week heat next week wipe out the growing negatives? Not likely. We're going to put up some serious negs through Sat but it will make a dent though. It's only 3 days and it's looking fairly likely that we score some more negs over the long weekend. On another note...AOA start to Dec seems to be coming into focus. Nothing tragic on the pattern but there's a pretty clear signal that we lose the aleutian low for a while. Pac air may dominate for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Not likely. We're going to put up some serious negs through Sat but it will make a dent though. It's only 3 days and it's looking fairly likely that we score some more negs over the long weekend. On another note...AOA start to Dec seems to be coming into focus. Nothing tragic on the pattern but there's a pretty clear signal that we lose the aleutian low for a while. Pac air may dominate for a period. I guess the CFS was sort of right with the GOA trough pumping in Pacific air...hopefully that pattern doesn't hold beyond December though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Heh, gfs has the 850s above freezing for basically the entire conus 12/2-3. Leesburg is on fire so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I guess the CFS was sort of right with the GOA trough pumping in Pacific air...hopefully that pattern doesn't hold beyond December though. If I remember this correctly, isn't this what happened in the leadup to the 12/13 winter? Very cold November and then December blowtorched after being flooded with warm Pacific air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 FWIW, the 12 GFS ENS look a bit cooler than the previous runs in the medium range. End of the month may not be as warm as advertised, but there is no strong signal either way. The first few days of December look seasonable as well. After that there is a countrywide torch in the later frames, but the good news is that it keeps getting punted back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 The models will frequently be wrong this winter with thier 7+ day introduction of very mild air. They are set up to figure that after bitter cold must come some mild. The recent departed high did not give us any return mild flow, it was replaced by even colder air which is here now. This cold high will move to a position where it does introduced mild air for just a day or two, then cold again. I think this will be our basic set up into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 30-35 for afternoon highs in full sun in mid November is very special. I know it was later in Nov that we were bitter cold in 1989 but what were those daily values for highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 FWIW, the 12 GFS ENS look a bit cooler than the previous runs in the medium range. End of the month may not be as warm as advertised, but there is no strong signal either way. The first few days of December look seasonable as well. After that there is a countrywide torch in the later frames, but the good news is that it keeps getting punted back.I compared the last 3 12z runs in the d13-16 range. While the pattern still looks pretty boring entering Dec, there has been some notable changes from having low heights plastered over and N of AK to signs of ridging poking up. This is pretty important if we don't want to get stuck in a pac air regime for an extended period. The euro shows this feature as well but it's more amplified. Having the aleutian ridge is a net negative but I could envision having nw canada load up with cold air, dump it southward into rockies/middle of the country, and then have the pattern shift with ridging out west again. Just a way out there total WAG but at least logical...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 If I remember this correctly, isn't this what happened in the leadup to the 12/13 winter? Very cold November and then December blowtorched after being flooded with warm Pacific air? Winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Winter cancel. Let's just fast forward to April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Let's just fast forward to April. Come on now lol. I remember hearing about how warm November was going to be, back in October. It's sunny and 29 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Winter cancel. I'm not saying its a 12/13 repeat, was just pointing out what I thought were similarities. But the best part is, if we did somehow torch through DJF, JB will still claim he was right now and that he "just got the timing wrong" and it happened in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Hopefully it doesn't hold beyond mid-December. A warm Christmas just isn't the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 I've yet to see any evidence that there exists a weather model that can consistently predict weather 2 weeks in advance. Because of that, I couldn't care less what any model shows for the first of December. Someone a while back pointed out that November looked warm when it was in the long range. IIRC, Bob made a post outlining what the models showed for November, and that it looked warm. I even remarked that it would be interesting to see how the warm forecast verified. There's no reason to be down about December or the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Hopefully it doesn't hold beyond mid-December. A warm Christmas just isn't the same. My in-accuwx 45 day outlook has snow Christmas morning.. all is good !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I've yet to see any evidence that there exists a weather model that can consistently predict weather 2 weeks in advance. Because of that, I couldn't care less what any model shows for the first of December. Someone a while back pointed out that November looked warm when it was in the long range. IIRC, Bob made a post outlining what the models showed for November, and that it looked warm. I even remarked that it would be interesting to see how the warm forecast verified. There's no reason to be down about December or the winter. I agree and disagree. We're a long ways away from models predicting accurate backyard sensible weather in the 10 day to 2 week timeframe (epsecially operational models) but the ensembles do a really good job at times with key long wave features at longer leads. This cold period was very well modeled at 10+ day leads. I think the Nuri affected the strength of it but it was likely going to happen regardless. I'll defer on that topic but the storm sent some shockwaves into the atmosphere at high latitudes. Transitional months are really tough. November/December and March/April in particular. Mid season months may have higher verification but I have no data to back it up. The summer cool shots were very well modeled at long leads as was a warm September. Do I think long range ensembles struggle at times? Heck yea. They are right now with the end of Nov into early Dec. Uncertainty is high. As far as Dec goes, I'm not down on it at all. I'm only concerned about wasting Dec 5th climo snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 I agree and disagree. We're a long ways away from models predicting accurate backyard sensible weather in the 10 day to 2 week timeframe (epsecially operational models) but the ensembles do a really good job at times with key long wave features at longer leads. This cold period was very well modeled at 10+ day leads. I think the Nuri affected the strength of it but it was likely going to happen regardless. I'll defer on that topic but the storm sent some shockwaves into the atmosphere at high latitudes. Transitional months are really tough. November/December and March/April in particular. Mid season months may have higher verification but I have no data to back it up. The summer cool shots were very well modeled at long leads as was a warm September. Do I think long range ensembles struggle at times? Heck yea. They are right now with the end of Nov into early Dec. Uncertainty is high. As far as Dec goes, I'm not down on it at all. I'm only concerned about wasting Dec 5th climo snow. And the word I used is consistently. They failed for November. Your posts #1495 and #1498 in the Winter Thread are evidence. Not picking on you or your posts, just saying that I don't trust long range predictions........from anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I agree and disagree. We're a long ways away from models predicting accurate backyard sensible weather in the 10 day to 2 week timeframe (epsecially operational models) but the ensembles do a really good job at times with key long wave features at longer leads. This cold period was very well modeled at 10+ day leads. I think the Nuri affected the strength of it but it was likely going to happen regardless. I'll defer on that topic but the storm sent some shockwaves into the atmosphere at high latitudes. Transitional months are really tough. November/December and March/April in particular. Mid season months may have higher verification but I have no data to back it up. The summer cool shots were very well modeled at long leads as was a warm September. Do I think long range ensembles struggle at times? Heck yea. They are right now with the end of Nov into early Dec. Uncertainty is high. As far as Dec goes, I'm not down on it at all. I'm only concerned about wasting Dec 5th climo snow. Agreed…a lot of people are not going to believe the seasonal/warm/weeklies model runs in the 10+ timeframe after what happened this month. I think the Ens do fairly well from the 10k ft view but unless they show cold this winter people are going to point to this November to refute them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 And the word I used is consistently. They failed for November. Your posts #1495 and #1498 in the Winter Thread are evidence. Not picking on you or your posts, just saying that I don't trust long range predictions........from anywhere. I agree. Nov was a fail on the weeklies and there were no signs of things suddenly flipping until near the end of Oct. The weeklies had the aleutian low but later in the month. We experienced a very sharp and abrupt pattern change. That will never be shown on any monthly or seasonal model. The ensembles are far from perfect at nailing long lead stuff but they are quite useful. The score some impressive victories as well as busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Agreed…a lot of people are not going to believe the seasonal/warm/weeklies model runs in the 10+ timeframe after what happened this month. I think the Ens do fairly well from the 10k ft view but unless they show cold this winter people are going to point to this November to refute them. But they basically killed it from July-October. That won't be remembered though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 But they basically killed it from July-October. That won't be remembered though. Well, it's like you said earlier....weenie 101....choose the wettest and coldest models. When long range isn't what we want...chuck it...haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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