midatlanticweather Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 just sayin' http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44761-november-discussion/?p=3112878 THAT was what I was saying! FANTASY LAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 It's worth keeping a casual eye and low exectations for next weekend. A bit of a long lead storm signal. Small splattering of lows on the euro ensembles near and off the coast. GEFS has some as well. Would likely be rain if something forms considering the time of year but worth watching anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 It's worth keeping a casual eye and low exectations for next weekend. A bit of a long lead storm signal. Small splattering of lows on the euro ensembles near and off the coast. GEFS has some as well. Would likely be rain if something forms considering the time of year but worth watching anyways. You would think the h5 pattern on the 12z gfs at about 8-10 days is close to being a pattern that could cook up something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z GEM d9 storm. 850 temps -6C all the way to the Bay, sfc temps low 30s for the I-95 corridor. WeenieBell shows 2" of snow for the cities, and 3-5" from central VA into DE. Could be a real storm, as the EURO was showing it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 You would think the h5 pattern on the 12z gfs at about 8-10 days is close to being a pattern that could cook up something. The #1 analog on CPC d11+ is 11/13/76. Dallas got almost 5" on that date. DC got almost an inch of snow in Nov 76 but I don't know the date. Obviously climo alone is stacked hard against Nov snow for the cities. Probably not as much for your area but still a notable feat. Lotta stuff to resolve. The first big push of cold air presses is still a good bit down the line let alone what happens afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z GEM d9 storm. 850 temps -6C all the way to the Bay, sfc temps low 30s for the I-95 corridor. WeenieBell shows 2" of snow for the cities, and 3-5" from central VA into DE. Could be a real storm, as the EURO was showing it too. 13km GFS has something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 13km GFS has something similar. Progressive bias at play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 13km GFS has something similar. The storm looks to come at night, so snow will have an easier time sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I doubt things will play out like the globals have shown (the cold air keeps getting slowly pushed back from...was Tuesday morning FROPA at one time, now more like Wednesday sometime), but the upper air pattern as advertised is one that I would be quite excited about if this was even a couple weeks from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I doubt things will play out like the globals have shown (the cold air keeps getting slowly pushed back from...was Tuesday morning FROPA at one time, now more like Wednesday sometime), but the upper air pattern as advertised is one that I would be quite excited about if this was even a couple weeks from now. Yea, what initially looked like a hard push now looks more like it may be a step down in some ways. First front clears and then another piece of energy swings down and clears a second front within a couple days. There is simply no telling how that could evolve at this lead. There's enough of a signal on the ensembles to keep us from falling asleep. It's far out of the ops' ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yea, what initially looked like a hard push now looks more like it may be a step down in some ways. First front clears and then another piece of energy swings down and clears a second front within a couple days. There is simply no telling how that could evolve at this lead. There's enough of a signal on the ensembles to keep us from falling asleep. It's far out of the ops' ranges. step down is better imho because the cold air comes in later on the calender mid Novie pattern changes that last thru the heart of winter seem tough to find, but late Novie has a few (all of which were prolific lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Progressive bias at play? 204 hour bias at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I doubt things will play out like the globals have shown (the cold air keeps getting slowly pushed back from...was Tuesday morning FROPA at one time, now more like Wednesday sometime), but the upper air pattern as advertised is one that I would be quite excited about if this was even a couple weeks from now. I agree with eveerything to said above. The pattern is a really good one. of interest is what is happening in the stratosphere and if the warming will lead to split the polar vortex. If so, then it might have implications for the winter and might argue for the front end of winter beig the coldesst. According to someone from SUNY, the last time a hurricane helped activate a SSW event was in Nov 1996. Not sure that means much but the impact is usually 2 months or so according to the Balwin Dunkerton stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Looks like the Euro has something at the same ~Day 9 timeframe along the coast. Like a 1018mb monster. Anyone with more details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I agree with eveerything to said above. The pattern is a really good one. of interest is what is happening in the stratosphere and if the warming will lead to split the polar vortex. If so, then it might have implications for the winter and might argue for the front end of winter beig the coldesst. According to someone from SUNY, the last time a hurricane helped activate a SSW event was in Nov 1996. Not sure that means much but the impact is usually 2 months or so according to the Balwin Dunkerton stuff. Interesting, Wes. That would certainly be a change from what many thought would be a back-loaded winter. I liked your article, as always, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Looks like the Euro has something at the same ~Day 9 timeframe along the coast. Like a 1018mb monster. Anyone with more details? Looks like a nice cold push coming though taking a peek at the 850s on Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Looks like the Euro has something at the same ~Day 9 timeframe along the coast. Like a 1018mb monster. Anyone with more details?h5 vort panels lool pretty good overall. Nice trough digging into the heart of TX. Verbatim it's prob too positive and anything that pops in front would run east but it fits my earlier thoughts of stepping into "a chance". Long ways out but one of the most difficult ingredients (Nov temps) seem to want to be present...ETA: I'm looking at d10 pattern. The d8-9 lead wave is pretty unimpressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Interesting, Wes. That would certainly be a change from what many thought would be a back-loaded winter. I liked your article, as always, by the way. Our background state is much different than Nov 1996 do it's probably still not a good analog. Still I always worry about things that can gor wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 h5 vort panels lool pretty good overall. Nice trough digging into the heart of TX. Verbatim it's prob too positive and anything that pops in front would run east but it fits my earlier thoughts of stepping into "a chance". Long ways out but one of the most difficult ingredients (Nov temps) seem to want to be present... ETA: I'm looking at d10 pattern. The d8-9 lead wave is pretty unimpressive Bob if the sheared trough was on a day 5 forecast instead of a day 10 I'd be kind of interested in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 The GFS/GGEM/EURO are all trying to develop some kind of low in the day 8-10 period. Something to watch at least for the potential to cash in on some early snowfall. The pattern is there at least so the potential is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Bob if the sheared trough was on a day 5 forecast instead of a day 10 I'd be kind of interested in it. Euro ensembles favor an east solution but are gaining a little support each run that there will be a storm tracking out of deep south. I agree, d10 can only entertain a distant chance at something happening. D8-15 looks like the coolest stretch relative to normal in quite a while. I'd be happy with frontal flurries to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Euro ensembles favor an east solution but are gaining a little support each run that there will be a storm tracking out of deep south. I agree, d10 can only entertain a distant chance at something happening. D8-15 looks like the coolest stretch relative to normal in quite a while. I'd be happy with frontal flurries to be honest. Same here. I seriously don't expect accumulating snow in November. If we can get some mid-air flurries for SnowTV, that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 1976 and 2002 all over the D8 GFS superensemble analogs again (still?). Roll them forward a bit and BOOM December 5th 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 1976 and 2002 all over the D8 GFS superensemble analogs again (still?). Roll them forward a bit and BOOM December 5th 2002. I wasn't here then. Dec 2002...what was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I wasn't here then. Dec 2002...what was it? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/05-Dec-02.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/05-Dec-02.html This was an awesome storm, not because it was a HECS or anything, but because this was the first storm after the abysmal 2001-02 winter, which gave me a sense it would never snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 18z GFS shows the snow threat again next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I'm surprised no one has mentioned the veterans day storm, back in 1987. I was a young snow weenie, but I remember it like it was yesterday. One of my all-time favorite storms. 14" fell in my yard that day. I was stuck in school until midnight. I remember having to walk a mile, with just shoes on that night. Loved it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 This was an awesome storm, not because it was a HECS or anything, but because this was the first storm after the abysmal 2001-02 winter, which gave me a sense it would never snow again. In addition to what you said it was also an incredibly cold storm for so early in the season. Also it pretty much affected the entire I95 corridor from DC to Boston and was an all snow event for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 18z GFS shows the snow threat again next weekend... Surface looks good... low 30s. Glad to have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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