BTRWx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Mondays storm way north. Don't care because it was a crappy setup to begin with. Same for next weekend apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Looks like a cold, dry week after our mild rainstorm. Yesterday it looked like we had a shot at some snow at the end but that's unlikely now. I'll take the qpf in any form in light of the stats on dry Novembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yesterday it looked like we had a shot at some snow at the end but that's unlikely now. I'll take the qpf in any form in light of the stats on dry Novembers. Agreed. And the storm for the week of the 23rd is going to be warm and we should get some decent rain. No matter how "good" an advertised pattern looks for November cold, unless there is some sick blocking its hard to go against climo to time something. I am fine with the cold sunny days, and November rain...not a bad song from about 25 years ago either. Wow time flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Agreed. And the storm for the week of the 23rd is going to be warm and we should get some decent rain. No matter how "good" an advertised pattern looks for November cold, unless there is some sick blocking its hard to go against climo to time something. I am fine with the cold sunny days, and November rain...not a bad song from about 25 years ago either. Wow time flies. gNr Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 gNr Sent from my iPhone Yup. Not my fave of theirs, but as I typed it i was like damn i must be getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Intriguing long range. Not from a snow standpoint but more of uncertainty. Looking more clear everyday that a front clears by tday so that's good. Hopefully it doesn't start slowing down. Tday weekend is looking bn temp wise on all ensembles. What happens after is muddy but some signs are slowly emerging. Some clarity with the Pac having an Aleutian ridge/goa trough. However, the euro ensembles are showing a decent east based -nao look so bn temps continue through the end of the run. Not crazy cold.Just cooler than normal by a few degrees. Gefs has so much spread late in the cycle that it really doesn't showa signal. My hunch about a quick flip to a +ao being questionable seems to be coming true but too early to say for sure. Big spread on ensembles making the means near neutral down the road. My wag is a relaxation for a brief period and then a trend back down as we close the month and enter the promised land. The important thing to watch for is avoiding any hostile anomalous features that become stable going into Dec. Having a goa trough is no big deal though. If the Aleutian ridge happens it would likely be transient and not become dominant and flood us with Pac air for weeks on end imho. I would think odds favor a progression and not retrograde. If a progression puts a ridge in the west sometime during the first 10 days of Dec we may get a chance at some snow. Feeling optimistic today. Eta: my use of the word retrograde was a poor choice. What I was trying to say is having the Aleutian ridge/goa+western trough amplify would be rough. A deep -pna in early Dec would be warm and snowless here without hard core blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Nice post, Bob. From what I've seen the last couple days on the GEFS, it doesn't really look like a GOA trough ever really sets up. Seems like several s/w's just pass through the Aleutian low area and into the GOA before weakening. Superensemble seems to still put the mean trough squarely in the Aleutians for T-giving. While T-giving week looks warmer than next week, I agree that it doesn't look like a torch at all outside of perhaps 1-2 days with the big cutter. Could very well still end up slightly below normal that week. November could have some respectably cold departures in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It's a good sign if the warm-ups we see in the extended are muted by the time they get here. Usually it's the other way around in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Another cold front incoming late next week. More direct shot too. Wonder if it hangs around long enough to make things interesting. GFS hinted but didn't quite get it done. There is a decent chance of a weak wave developing along the front on Friday that may bring a period of light snow. Quick warm up by next Sun and Mon for the next cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Nice post, Bob. From what I've seen the last couple days on the GEFS, it doesn't really look like a GOA trough ever really sets up. Seems like several s/w's just pass through the Aleutian low area and into the GOA before weakening. Superensemble seems to still put the mean trough squarely in the Aleutians for T-giving. While T-giving week looks warmer than next week, I agree that it doesn't look like a torch at all outside of perhaps 1-2 days with the big cutter. Could very well still end up slightly below normal that week. November could have some respectably cold departures in our area. It's been an interesting long lead period. A big warning shot that of a semi-wholesale flip kinda startled me a few days back. Made me paranoid. Things are looking much better now and if the -AO reloads in early Dec it will be a really really good sign. I'm looking forward to the warmup. I have a ton of work to do inside and outside my house before the big family onslaught happens for the holiday. I'm hosting 9 guests + my 6 means 15 people in the house for 48 hours. yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Nice post, Bob. From what I've seen the last couple days on the GEFS, it doesn't really look like a GOA trough ever really sets up. Seems like several s/w's just pass through the Aleutian low area and into the GOA before weakening. Superensemble seems to still put the mean trough squarely in the Aleutians for T-giving. While T-giving week looks warmer than next week, I agree that it doesn't look like a torch at all outside of perhaps 1-2 days with the big cutter. Could very well still end up slightly below normal that week. November could have some respectably cold departures in our area. As we get closer to Tuesday the models have yet to back down on the cold. Tuesday may very well be one of the coldest days before November 20th we've ever had especially considering it won't be precipitating. The second shot that comes on Friday is starting to look more impressive as well. The coldest November day I could ever remember was in 1987 on a Saturday. I think it was the 21st. There was a snow squall in the morning followed by winds and temps that stayed below freezing all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Fri-Sun are interesting in the sense that another cold hp noses down in a good spot. Models aren't really showing much precip making it up from the gulf but it's a ways out. Euro and gfs have shown some glimmers during that period. Last night's euro had a pretty decent vort pass. h5 setup and hp placement are "ok" for fighting a cut to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It's a good sign if the warm-ups we see in the extended are muted by the time they get here. Usually it's the other way around in these parts. Yes, agree. Much like last year at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Overnight GFS and GEFS were pretty blah in the long range (post Day 10). Not a torch, but probably seasonable to a touch above. Hopefully the Euro was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Overnight GFS and GEFS were pretty blah in the long range (post Day 10). Not a torch, but probably seasonable to a touch above. Hopefully the Euro was better. It's a straight up model war n of from AK to the pole. Euro has a clear ridge bridge signal across the pole d11-15. AN heights over Greenland as well. GEFS shows the AK side enveloped in lower heights during that time. Goes back to what I was thinking earlier about flipping to a +AO. I "think" the GEFS has it wrong. The 14 day verfication graph shows pretty bluntly how bad the GEFS has been late in the run with predicting the AO. It's been missing the dips completely but picks them up fairly well d7 or so. I could easily see the AO going near neutral for a time. But I doubt it goes 1sd above normal or higher for an extended period. Time will tell. ETA: last night's euro ensembles have below normal surface temps d10-15 in the east. Also has all of Canada below normal during the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 GEFS has been jumpy in d10+ for a few days now with the indices. Euro ens has a very large spread with the AO as well but the mean is lower than the GEFS. 0z euro ens is showing a decline last 5 days of the month after a 3 day positive period centered around the 25th-26th. But the 12z was negative the whole period so that is a bit of a jump as well. Uncertainty at its finest. lol I like using these charts for the GEFS member output instead of the line graphs. You can see a lot of spread d10+ and a big jump in just 12 hours. 12z from yesterday: 0z last night: It's pretty hard to buy into any outcome right now. There are times when there is much more clarity at long leads. This isn't one of them. I'm just going to go with the simpleton approach of anomalous periods lasting longer and overperforming in the long range right now. If things become more clear that we are going to lose the -AO alltogether then it's time to hit the panic button for early Dec snow. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Sounds good to me. I'll go straight up DT and hug the Euro on this one. I'll note that the GEFS over the weekend looked quite a bit better in the long range, more like what you're describing on the Euro ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Sounds good to me. I'll go straight up DT and hug the Euro on this one. I'll note that the GEFS over the weekend looked quite a bit better in the long range, more like what you're describing on the Euro ENS. Wes made a great point about the EPO this weekend. GEFS now has strong consensus for it being + going into Dec while the Euro consensus is starting to favor a drop back towards negative right around the 27th or so. That's the big difference between the 2 ensembles late in the period. It's probably the key feature to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 It's a straight up model war n of from AK to the pole. Euro has a clear ridge bridge signal across the pole d11-15. AN heights over Greenland as well. GEFS shows the AK side enveloped in lower heights during that time. Goes back to what I was thinking earlier about flipping to a +AO. I "think" the GEFS has it wrong. The 14 day verfication graph shows pretty bluntly how bad the GEFS has been late in the run with predicting the AO. It's been missing the dips completely but picks them up fairly well d7 or so. I could easily see the AO going near neutral for a time. But I doubt it goes 1sd above normal or higher for an extended period. Time will tell. ETA: last night's euro ensembles have below normal surface temps d10-15 in the east. Also has all of Canada below normal during the period. Although last month I noted that I saw data based evidence of a larger correlation between the AO for N and DJF vs. O and DJF and I should perhaps be worried about the possibility that this month's AO ends up pretty neutral, I lost that worry awhile back for this year's situation (even though I'm not backing down from that general idea about Nov.) because of the very impressive SAI/SCE. Here are two good reasons (SAI analogs that were also Nino): 2009: Oct. -1.540; Nov. +0.459 1976: Oct. -0.804; Nov. -0.087 Though not an SAI analog, 1969, a Nino/+PDO/potential winter -AO/-NAO analog had this for Nov. AO: +0.326 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Larry, I wouldn't worry at all about Nov's reading unless it's at least 1sd above normal on the means and even then there are examples of big +AO's in Nov flipping. 78-79 is one of them. IMO Dec is by far the most important month for setting the tone for the winter. The AO behaves differently in fall vs winter. Anomalous periods one way or the other during djf typically have some teeth. I do find it encouraging having a fairly strong blocking event during both Oct and Nov even if the monthlies aren't super impressive. I suppose it's fair to say the tendency to go negative is present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 12z GFS has a Euro-like solution for mid-next week. Strong s/w spins up a coastal on the trailing front from the Sunday-Monday hot mess strung out cutter slop. Our temps are borderline, but verbatim cold rain that might end as flurries. Worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 12z GFS has a Euro-like solution for mid-next week. Strong s/w spins up a coastal on the trailing front from the Sunday-Monday hot mess strung out cutter slop. Our temps are borderline, but verbatim cold rain that might end as flurries. Worth watching. 12z GGEM tries same thing from hrs 192-210... but its all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 GEFS look bad in the long range. Aleutian ridge, probably +AO and -PNA. Hopefully the Euro disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 GEFS look bad in the long range. Aleutian ridge, probably +AO and -PNA. Hopefully the Euro disagrees. I totally agrees that it looks bad, but it trended better from 00z which is good IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I totally agrees that it looks bad, but it trended better from 00z which is good IMO. Eh...not sure I agree. Superensemble looks far better (although not ideal) at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Eh...not sure I agree. Superensemble looks far better (although not ideal) at least. Yea that looks way better lol. And I was talking mainly 300+ hours out looked better on the 12z vs. 00z. It just seemed to take away more of the lower heights over AK and was having a ridge poke a little closer to the northern side of Greenland. But nothing has been majorly improved yet. Though I'm liking the looks of the stratosphere above Siberia as the month closes out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 GEFS look bad in the long range. Aleutian ridge, probably +AO and -PNA. Hopefully the Euro disagrees. GEFS has been stuck on that progression for a couple days now. Euro ensembles are quite different (thankfully). It's notable with the 12z gefs that there is a basically unanimous consensus with the members for an aleutian ridge. Euro has a strong signal there as well but the heights north of that ridge are quite opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Euro looks interesting on Day 9. 850s sub-zero with the low offshore. Any precip and are surface temps decent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Euro looks interesting on Day 9. 850s sub-zero with the low offshore. Any precip and are surface temps decent? What do you think of the Day 10? I only have instantweathermaps but a weak low in Texas, marginal 850's, and it doesn't look like it could cut west of us. Any precip with it? Probably slide right through the se I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Euro looks interesting on Day 9. 850s sub-zero with the low offshore. Any precip and are surface temps decent? It's more of a wave running up a boundary than a coastal. Narrow stripe of precip in general. Only scrapes the eastern shore. Surface well above freezing and no hp to the north. Not a promising setup or worth watching tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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