WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 GFS finally put out back to back solutions for Monday that resemble each other. Doesn't look like much but might be some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 18z GFS shows a Family Day supersoaker....4 inches of rain. lolGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It's not really a relaxing as much as a reshuffle. Ensembles never lose the ridge bridge look from n of AK to scandinavia. The pac shuffles losing the big aleutian low signal and it looks like a west coast trough digs for a bit. Down stream ridging here is actually starting to look like a warm thanksgiving week. The overall "good" part of the pattern remains mostly intact from what I'm seeing. From a timing perspective (assuming the big pieces of the pattern hold together) I agree that it's a good thing seeing a potential west trough during late Nov and not happening right as we go into Dec. Ah crap I hate warm Thanksgiving. I don't want to take the turkey out of the oven in shorts with the windows open and ceiling fan on high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 00z EURO advertising a quick artcic shot Monday into Tuesday,,,, -15c 850s Monday and -10c 850s Tuesday (Days 6 and 7). And after that... boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 boring yes, but it is def a colder pattern in its LR compared to what the 12z showed. Good step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 boring yes, but it is def a colder pattern in its LR compared to what the 12z showed. Good step. Once the EPO block retrograde back towards Siberia, and the mjo heads towards the Atlantic, we're going to see a relaxation in the pattern, and a warm up. The PAC jet will flood the conus with warmer air. Maybe a transient cool shot as the PNA flexes it's muscle every now and then. Not a torch by all means, but just be ready for it come 10-14 days from day and lasts till 1st week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Once the EPO block retrograde back towards Siberia, and the mjo heads towards the Atlantic, we're going to see a relaxation in the pattern, and a warm up. The PAC jet will flood the conus with warmer air. Maybe a transient cool shot as the PNA flexes it's muscle every now and then. Not a torch by all means, but just be ready for it come 10-14 days from day and lasts till 1st week of December.I'm not totally sold on the relaxation yet. Sure it could happen and I don't really care if it does but I remember after the big blocking event got underway in Oct, ensembles were way too premature in a quick flip back to positive. They totally missed the second dip mid month. If we are going to lose the cold pattern in the east I would of course prefer it to come this month vs Dec but I'm not ready to bite on a quick flip back to a +AO and ridge east leading into the holiday just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z EURO still keeps a pretty nice cold blast Tues-Wed before modifying... besides that, nothing much to look at ETA: LWX has low 20s in the zones around I-95 Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 18z gfs back to snow/wintry mix for sunday night/monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 18z gfs back to snow/wintry mix for sunday night/monday There are several ens members that slow this thing down even further and a couple of those would probably yield a decent bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 18z gfs back to snow/wintry mix for sunday night/monday There are several ens members that slow this thing down even further and a couple of those would probably yield a decent bit of snow. the column looks pretty warm until the end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 GooFuS trying to end us with flurries on the Monday system and even start well NW as Snow/Sleet. 6z GFS was a step backward though. But who cares, enjoy your rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Ensembles seem to be picking up on a possible cutter thanksgiving week with the front clearing us by the holiday. Which would be nice of course for 2 reasons...cool and dry is much better than warm or wet or both. We'll see how it goes. Down the line doesn't look too exciting. Looks like a possible return to a modest aleutian ridge/goa trough but not much of a ridge signal east of the trough so we could end up with a lot of pac air across the country for a bit. Total speculation and way far out there but that's what is being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Ensembles seem to be picking up on a possible cutter thanksgiving week with the front clearing us by the holiday. Which would be nice of course for 2 reasons...cool and dry is much better than warm or wet or both. We'll see how it goes. Down the line doesn't look too exciting. Looks like a possible return to a modest aleutian ridge/goa trough but not much of a ridge signal east of the trough so we could end up with a lot of pac air across the country for a bit. Total speculation and way far out there but that's what is being advertised. The Euro ensembles by day 11-15 are giving mixed signals with two main clusters with 60% or so forecasting a positive epo and around 40% a negative one. It doesn't offer a lot of confidence in any solution. I do think it likely that we warm with the cutter coming in before thanksgiving but only think we get to slightly below for a day or two behind the front unless the neg epo version is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The Euro ensembles by day 11-15 are giving mixed signals with two main clusters with 60% or so forecasting a positive epo and around 40% a negative one. It doesn't offer a lot of confidence in any solution. I do think it likely that we warm with the cutter coming in before thanksgiving but only think we get to slightly below for a day or two behind the front unless the neg epo version is correct. It does seem pretty muddy out in time right now. Ensembles did a great job picking up the current pattern at long leads. Quite a bit of spread in d11-15 now with no clear picture. I just hope we don't enter December with a hostile pattern. I can live with ho-hum average with normal temps. I just don't want to see one of the ointment flys show it's face and stick around for a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 When can we start a thread for the overrunning threat next Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 GFS-13km has a much more enjoyable solution for most of T-giving day week. Cutter cuts on Monday, Wednesday has a coastal with 850s below 0 and more fun on Black Friday. With the 13km resolution, I'm pretty sure I'm allowed to totally believe the 276-384hr GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 GFS-13km has a much more enjoyable solution for most of T-giving day week. Cutter cuts on Monday, Wednesday has a coastal with 850s below 0 and more fun on Black Friday. With the 13km resolution, I'm pretty sure I'm allowed to totally believe the 276-384hr GFS now. It's actually 964mb in the Gulf of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 GFS-13km has a much more enjoyable solution for most of T-giving day week. Cutter cuts on Monday, Wednesday has a coastal with 850s below 0 and more fun on Black Friday. With the 13km resolution, I'm pretty sure I'm allowed to totally believe the 276-384hr GFS now. Luckily DT's there to set me straight: DTVaWeatherman @DTVaWeatherman 15m 15 minutes ago ** US WX ALERT ** please for the love of god IGNORE GFS .. both High Res & regular GFS in 11-15 day Pretty sure the Euro's never been wrong on Day 10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Euro ensembles and gefs looking good for Tday not being warm. They have both sped up the trough digging through the middle of the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Luckily DT's there to set me straight: DTVaWeatherman @DTVaWeatherman 15m 15 minutes ago ** US WX ALERT ** please for the love of god IGNORE GFS .. both High Res & regular GFS in 11-15 day Pretty sure the Euro's never been wrong on Day 10+. Stop sucking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 When can we start a thread for the overrunning threat next Saturday? You could be on to something there. Cold hp keeps getting stronger on the runs and models are advertising a fetch from the gulf coast. If it becomes real, u start the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Low res 0Z gfs at least seems to have that idea, waiting on the para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Low res 0Z gfs at least seems to have that idea, waiting on the para Xbox gfs looks close enough for 7 days out. 1030hp on top of the wave coming up from the gulf. No annoying gl low showing up...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Xbox gfs looks close enough for 7 days out. 1030hp on top of the wave coming up from the gulf. No annoying gl low showing up...yet. End of the month torch is gone too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Low res 0Z gfs at least seems to have that idea, waiting on the para Para also has the overrunning event http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 End of the month torch is gone too My wag is we get a cutter tday week with a 2-3 day stretch of decent + departures before coolin back down. But the snowpack from next weekend's storm might keep things in control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Ensembles look similar to 12Z and 18Z at multiple height levels for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Mondays storm way north. Don't care because it was a crappy setup to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Mondays storm way north. Don't care because it was a crappy setup to begin with. Looks like a cold, dry week after our mild rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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