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November Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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It's not really a relaxing as much as a reshuffle. Ensembles never lose the ridge bridge look from n of AK to scandinavia. The pac shuffles losing the big aleutian low signal and it looks like a west coast trough digs for a bit. Down stream ridging here is actually starting to look like a warm thanksgiving week. The overall "good" part of the pattern remains mostly intact from what I'm seeing.

From a timing perspective (assuming the big pieces of the pattern hold together) I agree that it's a good thing seeing a potential west trough during late Nov and not happening right as we go into Dec.

Ah crap I hate warm Thanksgiving. I don't want to take the turkey out of the oven in shorts with the windows open and ceiling fan on high!

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boring yes, but it is def a colder pattern in its LR compared to what the 12z showed. Good step.

Once the EPO block retrograde back towards Siberia, and the mjo heads towards the Atlantic, we're going to see a relaxation in the pattern, and a warm up. The PAC jet will flood the conus with warmer air. Maybe a transient cool shot as the PNA flexes it's muscle every now and then. Not a torch by all means, but just be ready for it come 10-14 days from day and lasts till 1st week of December.

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Once the EPO block retrograde back towards Siberia, and the mjo heads towards the Atlantic, we're going to see a relaxation in the pattern, and a warm up. The PAC jet will flood the conus with warmer air. Maybe a transient cool shot as the PNA flexes it's muscle every now and then. Not a torch by all means, but just be ready for it come 10-14 days from day and lasts till 1st week of December.

I'm not totally sold on the relaxation yet. Sure it could happen and I don't really care if it does but I remember after the big blocking event got underway in Oct, ensembles were way too premature in a quick flip back to positive. They totally missed the second dip mid month.

If we are going to lose the cold pattern in the east I would of course prefer it to come this month vs Dec but I'm not ready to bite on a quick flip back to a +AO and ridge east leading into the holiday just yet.

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Ensembles seem to be picking up on a possible cutter thanksgiving week with the front clearing us by the holiday. Which would be nice of course for 2 reasons...cool and dry is much better than warm or wet or both. We'll see how it goes.

Down the line doesn't look too exciting. Looks like a possible return to a modest aleutian ridge/goa trough but not much of a ridge signal east of the trough so we could end up with a lot of pac air across the country for a bit. Total speculation and way far out there but that's what is being advertised.

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Ensembles seem to be picking up on a possible cutter thanksgiving week with the front clearing us by the holiday. Which would be nice of course for 2 reasons...cool and dry is much better than warm or wet or both. We'll see how it goes.

Down the line doesn't look too exciting. Looks like a possible return to a modest aleutian ridge/goa trough but not much of a ridge signal east of the trough so we could end up with a lot of pac air across the country for a bit. Total speculation and way far out there but that's what is being advertised.

The Euro ensembles by day 11-15 are giving mixed signals with two main clusters with 60% or so forecasting a positive epo and around 40% a negative one. It doesn't offer a lot of confidence in any solution. I do think it likely that we warm with the cutter coming in before thanksgiving but only think we get to slightly below for a day or two behind the front unless the neg epo version is correct.

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The Euro ensembles by day 11-15 are giving mixed signals with two main clusters with 60% or so forecasting a positive epo and around 40% a negative one. It doesn't offer a lot of confidence in any solution. I do think it likely that we warm with the cutter coming in before thanksgiving but only think we get to slightly below for a day or two behind the front unless the neg epo version is correct.

 

It does seem pretty muddy out in time right now. Ensembles did a great job picking up the current pattern at long leads. Quite a bit of spread in d11-15 now with no clear picture.

 

I just hope we don't enter December with a hostile pattern. I can live with ho-hum average with normal temps. I just don't want to see one of the ointment flys show it's face and stick around for a couple weeks.  

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GFS-13km has a much more enjoyable solution for most of T-giving day week.  Cutter cuts on Monday, Wednesday has a coastal with 850s below 0 and more fun on Black Friday.  With the 13km resolution, I'm pretty sure I'm allowed to totally believe the 276-384hr GFS now.    

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GFS-13km has a much more enjoyable solution for most of T-giving day week.  Cutter cuts on Monday, Wednesday has a coastal with 850s below 0 and more fun on Black Friday.  With the 13km resolution, I'm pretty sure I'm allowed to totally believe the 276-384hr GFS now.    

:lol: It's actually 964mb in the Gulf of Maine

 

gfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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GFS-13km has a much more enjoyable solution for most of T-giving day week.  Cutter cuts on Monday, Wednesday has a coastal with 850s below 0 and more fun on Black Friday.  With the 13km resolution, I'm pretty sure I'm allowed to totally believe the 276-384hr GFS now.    

Luckily DT's there to set me straight:

 

DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman  15m

** US WX ALERT ** please for the love of god IGNORE GFS .. both High Res & regular GFS in 11-15 day

 

Pretty sure the Euro's never been wrong on Day 10+.

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