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November Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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A bit of a model war down the line. Euro ensembles relax things around the 23-24th. GOA trough and low heights out west and a bit of a ridge here. GEFS has the goa trough but it's centered further west so it keeps the +pna / ec trough look late in the period. Both models keep ridging across the pole from the ridge n of ak and scandinavia so the if a relaxation occurs it's not really a sign of anything hostile.

As for the precip events on tap, I don't really see anything glaring positive in any of the runs. The GL low for the early week system is probably going to screw up chances at even seeing snow fall from the sky. Could still happen but the picture won't be clear until much closer to the event. The one on the heels is more likely to track west than underneath us. If we have good hp to the N we could get some front end mangled flakes with CAD in place before the midlevels warm. Still very uncertain but I'm not seeing many positive signs.

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A bit of a model war down the line. Euro ensembles relax things around the 23-24th. GOA trough and low heights out west and a bit of a ridge here. GEFS has the goa trough but it's centered further west so it keeps the +pna / ec trough look late in the period. Both models keep ridging across the pole from the ridge n of ak and scandinavia so the if a relaxation occurs it's not really a sign of anything hostile.

As for the precip events on tap, I don't really see anything glaring positive in any of the runs. The GL low for the early week system is probably going to screw up chances at even seeing snow fall from the sky. Could still happen but the picture won't be clear until much closer to the event. The one on the heels is more likely to track west than underneath us. If we have good hp to the N we could get some front end mangled flakes with CAD in place before the midlevels warm. Still very uncertain but I'm not seeing many positive signs.

there is a reason it hardly snows in November. Its because it hardly snows in November

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A bit of a model war down the line. Euro ensembles relax things around the 23-24th. GOA trough and low heights out west and a bit of a ridge here. GEFS has the goa trough but it's centered further west so it keeps the +pna / ec trough look late in the period. Both models keep ridging across the pole from the ridge n of ak and scandinavia so the if a relaxation occurs it's not really a sign of anything hostile.

As for the precip events on tap, I don't really see anything glaring positive in any of the runs. The GL low for the early week system is probably going to screw up chances at even seeing snow fall from the sky. Could still happen but the picture won't be clear until much closer to the event. The one on the heels is more likely to track west than underneath us. If we have good hp to the N we could get some front end mangled flakes with CAD in place before the midlevels warm. Still very uncertain but I'm not seeing many positive signs.

 

As long as the pattern doesn't "relax" too much into December, this is totally fine by me.

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there is a reason it hardly snows in November. Its because it hardly snows in November

I honestly never got why everyone was excited about November cold.  I'm not even remotely excited about this pattern.  I mean, for cold, yes..it is interesting, but call me in December for real snow chances. 

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This comment got me interested, so I was doing a cursory check of BWI Nov. precip over the last 15 years and how it compares to seasonal snowfall... with the exception of Nov. 2006 and last year, the correlation is shockingly high. I'm going to look into this more.

 

I went back to 1950 at BWI. You'll find the correlation is best when you use the current normal precip (<3.3 in.). Of the 41 Novembers with below normal precip, 27 ended up having below normal snowfall for the season. It doesn't really work the other way though: 15 of the 23 above normal Nov. precip months still ended up with below normal snow. So I guess you could say that a dry November is a decent sign of possible lower snow totals to come, but a wet Nov. is no guarantee of a snowy winter.

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I honestly never got why everyone was excited about November cold.  I'm not even remotely excited about this pattern.  I mean, for cold, yes..it is interesting, but call me in December for real snow chances. 

even the cold is not that impressive. We are not getting anything of the cold stuff that the plains/Denver got. 45 for a high...way below normal but its still 45 degrees. Looks like we may get one or 2 chances at a day in the low 30's but no moisture around. And the model runs are looking worse daily. November is the worst month to have a great pattern

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looking back at the great winters at BWI, you have to go back to 11/78 since there was a well above normal snowfall in NOV that preceded a great winter (I actually remember that system very well....it was Thanksgiving weekend and it was a storm that went to our west that was supposed to start out as snow and quickly change back but the Low went further west than proged and the cold air held in for 3-4" around the DCA/BWI area. So it was just 1 fluke that made it a snowy month.)

back on point, BWI average is .4" in NOV, so we can't expect much and even if it fails, it means nothing for the winter as a whole

I think what is important we are seeing, however, with the blocking, PNA ridge, and warming ENSO, so all is good in my weenie mind

 

 

p.s. some might bring ip 11/95 when 1" fell 1 night at BWI, but that was one event too and 1" one evening in NOV in my mind doesn't fit into what I would be looking for as an indicator

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looking back at the great winters at BWI, you have to go back to 11/78 since there was a well above normal snowfall in NOV that preceded a great winter (I actually remember that system very well....it was Thanksgiving weekend and it was a storm that went to our west that was supposed to start out as snow and quickly change back but the Low went further west than proged and the cold air held in for 3-4" around the DCA/BWI area. So it was just 1 fluke that made it a snowy month.)

back on point, BWI average is .4" in NOV, so we can't expect much and even if it fails, it means nothing for the winter as a whole

I think what is important we are seeing, however, with the blocking, PNA ridge, and warming ENSO, so all is good in my weenie mind

 

 

p.s. some might bring ip 11/95 when 1" fell 1 night at BWI, but that was one event too and 1" one evening in NOV in my mind doesn't fit into what I would be looking for as an indicator

And who knows, with Sun/Mon we may get lucky and see some accumulation. The GFS has been pretty consistent.

 

:weenie:

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there is a reason it hardly snows in November. Its because it hardly snows in November

It's only been a first flakes chase for me. And while it doesn't snow in Nov often, there are some ok ingredients this year to pique interest. Failing is obviously the most likely outcome but if something happened it wouldn't qualify as a "freak event" imo.

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It's only been a first flakes chase for me. And while it doesn't snow in Nov often, there are some ok ingredients this year to pique interest. Failing is obviously the most likely outcome but if something happened it wouldn't qualify as a "freak event" imo.

 

I think a few of the GFS/EURO runs that showed a good "storm" got us a bit too enthused... seeing flakes fall would be fine by me... Sun night is the time period I am watching for

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It's only been a first flakes chase for me. And while it doesn't snow in Nov often, there are some ok ingredients this year to pique interest. Failing is obviously the most likely outcome but if something happened it wouldn't qualify as a "freak event" imo.

 

 

I think a few of the GFS/EURO runs that showed a good "storm" got us a bit too enthused... seeing flakes fall would be fine by me... Sun night is the time period I am watching for

Is there a reason you guys are punting tomorrow night for 1st flakes chance?  Admittedly I haven't looked anymore in depth beyond seeing cold temps and a little precip progged.  

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I think a few of the GFS/EURO runs that showed a good "storm" got us a bit too enthused... seeing flakes fall would be fine by me... Sun night is the time period I am watching for

The one or 2 euro runs with a good storm setup were the only ones that showed real promise but there was no ensemble support. All the other op solutions had too many flaws with lp track and strength and hp placement. Any flaw is a big flag for outside normal climo snow.

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Is there a reason you guys are punting tomorrow night for 1st flakes chance? Admittedly I haven't looked anymore in depth beyond seeing cold temps and a little precip progged.

It's a nowcast event with dry air and very light precip. I haven't punted it but there's not a ton to work with here. SE of the area has a better shot with precip but worse off temp wise.

I suppose I should be more encouraged. GFS/GFS2 look half decent for some light flurries.

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Sigh... just a tad too warm on Sun night into Mon so we all enjoy cold light rain

 

Disappointing... cause there is a good amount of QPF on the 12z GFS (greater than 0.5")

 

Parallel GFS agrees and also has a good amount of precip as well, rainy Monday incoming

The GFS has been all over the place with this.  I don't know about the para because I haven't looked.  I don't know what the Euro has.  The fact that it keeps changing on the GFS would say, IMO, keep watching.

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The GFS has been all over the place with this.  I don't know about the para because I haven't looked.  I don't know what the Euro has.  The fact that it keeps changing on the GFS would say, IMO, keep watching.

 

 

Interesting that the GGEM waits till Monday night for precip, but its rain as well

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I honestly never got why everyone was excited about November cold.  I'm not even remotely excited about this pattern.  I mean, for cold, yes..it is interesting, but call me in December for real snow chances. 

I don't even think its that interesting for cold.  It's mid November, and my forecast high for Friday is 40 or so.  That will end up being 42-44.  That's not that big of a deal for mid November.

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The cold looks noteworthy for the plains, but def not unusual by the time it gets here.

 

 

Looks okay around here next Wednesday... -13 to -16c 850s... perhaps upper teens in suburbs for lows based off 12z EURO?

This first front was always looking like the lesser of the 2+ pulses of colder air.  The one progged for next Tuesday-Wednesday is more directed toward us and will therefore modify less by the time it gets here.  That's the chance for some record breaking.  

 

Speaking of records, here's the low-max records and record mins for the 18th and 19th for the 3 airports:

 

IAD:  39/38   20/20

BWI:  31/35   20/20

DCA:  33/33   21/18

 

The DCA records are almost certainly unreachable of course, but all the IAD records are certainly in play I think and the BWI records (except that 31F) might be competitive.  

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Lol at the 180 some of you are trying to do now that you've finally realized this isn't a snow pattern. The avg high is about 60, and we are talking Nov highs in the low to mid 40s for an extended period of time.

No, it won't be record breaking, but if we were talking about these same departures for the same period of time in Jan most of us would be giddy.

Sage.

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This first front was always looking like the lesser of the 2+ pulses of colder air.  The one progged for next Tuesday-Wednesday is more directed toward us and will therefore modify less by the time it gets here.  That's the chance for some record breaking.  

 

Speaking of records, here's the low-max records and record mins for the 18th and 19th for the 3 airports:

 

IAD:  39/38   20/20

BWI:  31/35   20/20

DCA:  33/33   21/18

 

The DCA records are almost certainly unreachable of course, but all the IAD records are certainly in play I think and the BWI records (except that 31F) might be competitive.  

I bet IAD breaks it. It'll be something like 18F or 19F for the low on the 19th.

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I know this will come off as weenie-ish & bro-science-ish, but i'm sort of happy we're seeing a relaxation period showing up towards 2nd half of November. We all know patterns never last. It seems to me as well that whenever we see a big AO tank, it usually means we see it throughout the winter off and on. Hopefully the pattern sets up to turn wintry towards early December.

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I know this will come off as weenie-ish & bro-science-ish, but i'm sort of happy we're seeing a relaxation period showing up towards 2nd half of November. We all know patterns never last. It seems to me as well that whenever we see a big AO tank, it usually means we see it throughout the winter off and on. Hopefully the pattern sets up to turn wintry towards early December.

It's not really a relaxing as much as a reshuffle. Ensembles never lose the ridge bridge look from n of AK to scandinavia. The pac shuffles losing the big aleutian low signal and it looks like a west coast trough digs for a bit. Down stream ridging here is actually starting to look like a warm thanksgiving week. The overall "good" part of the pattern remains mostly intact from what I'm seeing.

From a timing perspective (assuming the big pieces of the pattern hold together) I agree that it's a good thing seeing a potential west trough during late Nov and not happening right as we go into Dec.

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