BTRWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Sadly the new GFS has a low in Canada and a mild day here. Probably wrong. And I'll be out for the Euro. Good luck. but then this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 but then this seems like main question might be when the thanksgiving week snowstorm happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 This is GFS @ 192 hours compared to yesterday 12z EURO at roughly same time. They look almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 On the maps I just posted, look at where the PV is setup (SE Canada)...This creates confluence over the Lakes in perfect spot. Textbook setup if it's right. Too bad this isn't 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 EURO @ 168 hours looks like a solid setup for the Day 8-10 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Would be good to heights building over southern Greenland and the Davis Straight, to keep the upper vortex from slipping off to the ENE too quickly. The SW entering the US around CA looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Euro at 240hrs looks fine...I am looking at the Tropical Tidbits 500mb/MSLP though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Euro at 240hrs looks fine...I am looking at the Tropical Tidbits 500mb/MSLP though. 850's are a little warm, but that Low placement does look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Looks like some damming could occur, but the temps look too warm on maps. Need some MET and/or Bob analysis for confluence/damming ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 EURO was way warm for that D10 storm this run. Will vary each run to either rain snow or no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 12Z GFS ensembles seem to show a super soaker early next week that could have interesting implications for the highest elevations. The rest of the run also has lots of precip, but torchy. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=prec&WMO=&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201411111200%26HH%3D144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 its November....what are you guys looking for here besides a few mangled wet flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 EURO was way warm for that D10 storm this run. Will vary each run to either rain snow or no storm.What are they saying about it in the Philly forum?BTW...that was a truly genius level post you made. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 What are they saying about it in the Philly forum? BTW...that was a truly genius level post you made. Congrats. Philly forum is dead as always, Mid/Atlantic, NYC/New England forums are where its at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 its November....what are you guys looking for here besides a few mangled wet flakes? 11/11/87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 I don't think Sun/Mon is at the tossing point yet...lol. I'll probably look like a doofus for saying that. Still a range of solutions on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I don't think Sun/Mon is at the tossing point yet...lol. I'll probably look like a doofus for saying that. Still a range of solutions on the ensembles. your neck, I don't think so either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I don't think Sun/Mon is at the tossing point yet...lol. I'll probably look like a doofus for saying that. Still a range of solutions on the ensembles. Don't know about the Euro, but both GFSes give us at least some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Don't know about the Euro, but both GFSes give us at least some flakes. I would have expected a little more consistency of the ens by now. Maybe that's not a realistic expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Don't know about the Euro, but both GFSes give us at least some flakes. GFS P actually puts down 1-2" Sun/Mon. 850s are good, and the surface is below freezing. Also, it looks like the GFS P was setting up something nice for the 22nd at 240. WxBell only goes out to 240, so does anyone know what happened after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The regular GFS still shows a storm developing around the 21st, no snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The para GFS kind of gives a weird look though, I think. We have two lows, one over SC and another off the NC coast Monday afternoon. The one off the coast moves on, but the SC low meanders for a while before strengthening and scooting up the coast Tuesday. Seems strange, but maybe I am missing something? Missing the fact that it's a day 6-7 solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The most troubling part of the next 10 days on the ops and ensembles is too many solutions with lp where we need hp. Even a 1010mb lp near the lakes is enough to cause big problems. We need everything to go right. The only really good run was the euro when it showed a wall of 1030hp. But there is a consistent theme of having problematic midlevels north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Every system looks torchy on the 0Z GFS with the para being warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Looks like many see flakes Friday and Sunday night. Past day 9 looks to be warm but that's LA LA land. Regular GFS shows IAD with a bit of accumulating snow, but I would bet against that idea the way things have been shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Every system looks torchy on the 0Z GFS with the para being warmest. Rather lousy setup. We loose are surface cold before the precip moves in and then we have to wait for more to arrive. There is no strong pressure gradient to push it over the mountains before the precip ends, unless the low really bombs over Virginia beach. In other words I'm betting on surface temps closer to the GFS parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 850s look OK to me for most west burbs of DC/. balt. Surface temps low -mid 30s lokking on weatherbell I just checked IAD Bufkit sounding and the surface temperature is slightly above freezing while the dewpoint is slightly below around hr 135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Doubt it will come true but the 0z GGEM has next Tuesday's high around freezing and lows Wednesday Morning in the Low to Mid teens. GGEM puts out odd temperature situations sometimes, Leesburg is the coldest location on the East Coast at the time while the Canadian border with Northern NY up near Massena is in the Mid 20s. The old GFS isn't that far from it though. Maybe we can sneak in Upper teens in the Cold burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 if we can get some front end snow that changes to rain, that's a victory for mid-late NOV in my weenie mind secondly, I just want the Nov qpf as high possible as Nov's w/qpf < 2.25" are rarely followed by AN snowfall winters; it's happened a few times, but for whatever reason(s) AN qpf Nov's have better snow results than the well below qpf's This comment got me interested, so I was doing a cursory check of BWI Nov. precip over the last 15 years and how it compares to seasonal snowfall... with the exception of Nov. 2006 and last year, the correlation is shockingly high. I'm going to look into this more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 looks like a disaster pattern....cold followed by warm rain followed by cold and warm rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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