T. August Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Nothing at DCA. We did good late Nov through Dec of 1967 for what that is worth. Unofficial totals put BWI at 4.3" for Nov. '68. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwisnow.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Nothing at DCA. We did good late Nov through Dec of 1967 for what that is worth. Little too close to the 984 bomb, just inland must have cashed in some, edit I see the 4 at BWI. just looked through some NOW data for your areas. Roanoke did real well. Similar LR range pattern. Should be an interesting time rolling forward for you folks in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Little too close to the 984 bomb, just inland must have cashed in some, edit I see the 4 at BWI. just looked through some NOW data for your areas. Roanoke did real well. Similar LR range pattern. Should be an interesting time rolling forward for you folks in particular. Nov 1968 was a great winter month for the I-81 corridor and west. 6" here, and at Staunton, and as you said, down to Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 18z GFS back to showing a nice little dusting on Sunday. Sfc is good, and it shows a bit over .5" in the NW 'burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 That Euro run might have been one of the best I have seen in my lifetime if it went out to say 264. It would have been an absolute destruction and a blizzard. If only it was right. IT sucks cause it can only go downhill from there since it cant get much better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Having no model access at work is absolutely painful. Friday still dry on the gfs? (I know, I know, enough with the Friday flurries talk) Yeah, it's dry... It hasn't shown flakes for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Nov 1968 was a great winter month for the I-81 corridor and west. 6" here, and at Staunton, and as you said, down to Roanoke. Looking at CO-Op stuff from right in immediate area looks like it was more elevation driven, ranging from 4 to 16.5 inches for the month here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 18z GFS also picks up on the pre-Thanksgiving storm. Looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Looking at CO-Op stuff from right in immediate area looks like it was more elevation driven, ranging from 4 to 16.5 inches for the month here. That nor'easter on 11/12/1968 dropped snow from north GA all the way up the east side of the Appalachians. I think it still holds the daily snowfall record for the Greenville-Spartansburg, SC area with 15". State College, PA had almost two feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Euro weeklies basically show a continuation of the pattern we're moving into for the next 3.5 weeks. Things shuffle a bit towards the end of the run with lowest heights in the conus in the west but no real ridge here. The run never loses the higher heights by the pole through the entire period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Folks...with some real interesting weather coming up in the next days to weeks, it's time to start treating the disco thread like the disco thread. So, please make your post value-added as much as possible. The staff's not going to treat it like the night before a KU, but we're going to keep this thread more focused. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Is it just me, or is the 18z and it's ens quite a shift on the Sun/Mon storm? Seems that before it was a pretty good precip maker, and now it's a whole lot of not much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Is it just me, or is the 18z and it's ens quite a shift on the Sun/Mon storm? Seems that before it was a pretty good precip maker, and now it's a whole lot of not much of anything. Typical 18z bias.. or the ROABs are down again. When it comes ashore in Taiwan the precip will come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 pure beauty right there http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html 6.8 anomalies in NW Canada....can't recall seeing that on this map that's 6.8 x .43 for almost 3 standard deviations above normal....WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS'ed X2 with a coastal Nov 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS got wetter with the Sun/Mon thing..but its a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS'ed X2 with a coastal Nov 17 Bad HP position out in the atlantic and no HP to the north. This is not a good setup for a snowstorm. However, look at 180 hours, split flow developing with energy crashing into SoCal, and PV setting up in a good spot, very similar to today's 12z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS got wetter with the Sun/Mon thing..but its a cold rain. Para appears to be mostly rain with the op having a bit of frozen. 2m temps look warm, so maybe the ncep precip-type algorithm also needs correcting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Tonight's 00z GFS indicating split flow around Day 7-8 forming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It has the be the algorithm right? I'm looking at both the op and para and see some frozen (mostly rain though) for Sun/Mon. It looked like we were right on the line. Obviously, if surface temps suck it won't matter. Lesson learned, don't use new tools without checking old guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It has the be the algorithm right? I'm looking at both the op and para and see some frozen (mostly rain though) for Sun/Mon. It looked like we were right on the line. Obviously, if surface temps suck it won't matter. The 850 freezing line doesn't always work as a snow/non-snow proxy early and late in the season. I think you kind of figured it out - the boundary layer as progged is probably too warm. The GFS uses 4 precip type algorithms at each grid point at each output time and takes consensus. Ties are broken in favor of "more wintery" weather, and this method generally works well, assuming a good forecast of the thermal structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The 850 freezing line doesn't always work as a snow/non-snow proxy early and late in the season. I think you kind of figured it out - the boundary layer as progged is probably too warm. The GFS uses 4 precip type algorithms at each grid point at each output time and takes consensus. Ties are broken in favor of "more wintery" weather, and this method generally works well, assuming a good forecast of the thermal structure. and have broken a lot of weenie hearts because of that actually, I did not know that but it does make sense when you compare it to the other models in close calls....of course, maybe they're programmed the same way so the answer isn't that simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Parrellel GFS is thinking about a storm at 240, has the high over WI with a 1014mb low over New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It's beginning. Nice 10-15 to maybe 20 departures coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 06z GFS still has some mood flakes/snowTV for Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 00z EURO still has the storm it showed on yesterday's 12z run. However it tracks farther inland. The threat for a colder storm is still possible in my eyes if we can get the northern branch to race ahead of the shortwave coming out of the southwest. Long way to go, but still a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 00z EURO still has the storm it showed on yesterday's 12z run. However it tracks farther inland. The threat for a colder storm is still possible in my eyes if we can get the northern branch to race ahead of the shortwave coming out of the southwest. Long way to go, but still a threat. There's quite a bit of spread on the ensembles the last 2 runs. The majority have a crappy track though. We need perfection for accum nov snow here. I'm not seeing that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 There's quite a bit of spread on the ensembles the last 2 runs. The majority have a crappy track though. We need perfection for accum nov snow here. I'm not seeing that yet. if we can get some front end snow that changes to rain, that's a victory for mid-late NOV in my weenie mind secondly, I just want the Nov qpf as high possible as Nov's w/qpf < 2.25" are rarely followed by AN snowfall winters; it's happened a few times, but for whatever reason(s) AN qpf Nov's have better snow results than the well below qpf's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 What the hell is "SnowTV"? Totally Virtual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 What the hell is "SnowTV"? Totally Virtual?SnowTV is 8 of 10 snow events here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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