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November Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Nothing at DCA. We did good late Nov through Dec of 1967 for what that is worth.

Little too close to the 984 bomb, just inland must have cashed in some, edit I see the 4 at BWI. just looked through some NOW data for your areas. Roanoke did real well. Similar LR range pattern. Should be an interesting time rolling forward for you folks in particular.

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Little too close to the 984 bomb, just inland must have cashed in some, edit I see the 4 at BWI. just looked through some NOW data for your areas. Roanoke did real well. Similar LR range pattern. Should be an interesting time rolling forward for you folks in particular.

Nov 1968 was a great winter month for the I-81 corridor and west. 6" here, and at Staunton, and as you said, down to Roanoke.

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Looking at CO-Op stuff from right in immediate area looks like it was more elevation driven, ranging from 4 to 16.5 inches for the month here.

That nor'easter on 11/12/1968 dropped snow from north GA all the way up the east side of the Appalachians. I think it still holds the daily snowfall record for the Greenville-Spartansburg, SC area with 15". State College, PA had almost two feet.

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Euro weeklies basically show a continuation of the pattern we're moving into for the next 3.5 weeks. Things shuffle a bit towards the end of the run with lowest heights in the conus in the west but no real ridge here. The run never loses the higher heights by the pole through the entire period.

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Folks...with some real interesting weather coming up in the next days to weeks, it's time to start treating the disco thread like the disco thread.  So, please make your post value-added as much as possible.  The staff's not going to treat it like the night before a KU, but we're going to keep this thread more focused.  Thanks!

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Is it just me, or is the 18z and it's ens quite a shift on the Sun/Mon storm? Seems that before it was a pretty good precip maker, and now it's a whole lot of not much of anything.

 

Typical 18z bias.. or the ROABs are down again. When it comes ashore in Taiwan the precip will come back

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It has the be the algorithm right? I'm looking at both the op and para and see some frozen (mostly rain though) for Sun/Mon. It looked like we were right on the line. Obviously, if surface temps suck it won't matter. 

Lesson learned, don't use new tools without checking old guidance. ;)

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It has the be the algorithm right? I'm looking at both the op and para and see some frozen (mostly rain though) for Sun/Mon. It looked like we were right on the line. Obviously, if surface temps suck it won't matter. 

 

   The 850 freezing line doesn't always work as a snow/non-snow proxy early and late in the season.   I think you kind of figured it out - the boundary layer as progged is probably too warm.    The GFS uses 4 precip type algorithms at each grid point at each output time and takes consensus.   Ties are broken in favor of "more wintery" weather, and this method generally works well, assuming a good forecast of the thermal structure.

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   The 850 freezing line doesn't always work as a snow/non-snow proxy early and late in the season.   I think you kind of figured it out - the boundary layer as progged is probably too warm.    The GFS uses 4 precip type algorithms at each grid point at each output time and takes consensus.   Ties are broken in favor of "more wintery" weather, and this method generally works well, assuming a good forecast of the thermal structure.

and have broken a lot of weenie hearts because of that     :(

actually, I did not know that but it does make sense when you compare it to the other models in close calls....of course, maybe they're programmed the same way so the answer isn't that simple

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00z EURO still has the storm it showed on yesterday's 12z run. However it tracks farther inland. The threat for a colder storm is still possible in my eyes if we can get the northern branch to race ahead of the shortwave coming out of the southwest. Long way to go, but still a threat. 

 

There's quite a bit of spread on the ensembles the last 2 runs. The majority have a crappy track though. We need perfection for accum nov snow here. I'm not seeing that yet. 

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There's quite a bit of spread on the ensembles the last 2 runs. The majority have a crappy track though. We need perfection for accum nov snow here. I'm not seeing that yet. 

if we can get some front end snow that changes to rain, that's a victory for mid-late NOV in my weenie mind

secondly, I just want the Nov qpf as high possible as Nov's w/qpf < 2.25" are rarely followed by AN snowfall winters; it's happened a few times, but for whatever reason(s) AN qpf Nov's have better snow results than the well below qpf's

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