mitchnick Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 When does the para GFS take full effect? whenever us weenies decide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Split flow showing up for the Nov 20-27th range on pretty much all the models. Also noticing the PV / 50/50 is setting up in a much better spot... think we see the "potential" at real snowstorm during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 When does the para GFS take full effect? Should be Dec 17th according to Dr. Maue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Does anyone have a 204hr panel from tonights EURO? Day 8 shows a 1000mb L over the AL/GA border. When you go to Day 9, the low pressure system is up by NE Canada (Noa Scotia area) Oh, and yes, I know its likely to be rain... but the system almost looks like a Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Overnight GFS runs are Phineas specials: cold, dry then warm, wet then cold, dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Does anyone have a 204hr panel from tonights EURO? Day 8 shows a 1000mb L over the AL/GA border. When you go to Day 9, the low pressure system is up by NE Canada (Noa Scotia area) Oh, and yes, I know its likely to be rain... but the system almost looks like a Miller A Shows a decent storm. 994 over central SC @ hr198 and 988 off the NJ coast @ hr 204. We're above freezing at the surface during that period but 850's crash from the zero line running I95 to -5 just west of the cities by 204. Still has that pesky low to the north so it would be a struggle. We need perfection to get accum snow. Ensembles are mixed on precip totals and not really supportive of much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 As long as we don't **** the bed in December, I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 12/2/02 2nd best Day 8 analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Lol, sounds like something I said yesterday. Cold and dry, until it rains. Hopefully we can get a pattern that puts us in the game for some real action at the end of November/early December. Nothing scientific behind my thinking but my gut feeling about the upcoming cold coming so early and so strong isn't a good one. I really like to see this pattern set up about 2-3 from now and not just for the obvious reason of climo. I rather see strong cold shots that are transient for awhile. Kind of a pulsing back and forth and then the cold stick further down the line. I hope I am way off but it's just a bit of concern to me. I think the late blooming Nino is a good thing for the second half of winter which is our primetime anyway but we may struggle for a 30 -45 period starting in early December. Just a guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Nothing scientific behind my thinking but my gut feeling about the upcoming cold coming so early and so strong isn't a good one. I really like to see this pattern set up about 2-3 from now and not just for the obvious reason of climo. I rather see strong cold shots that are transient for awhile. Kind of a pulsing back and forth and then the cold stick further down the line. I hope I am way off but it's just a bit of concern to me. I think the late blooming Nino is a good thing for the second half of winter which is our primetime anyway but we may struggle for a 30 -45 period starting in early December. Just a guess though. I see this pattern as a great sign of what winter may want to offer. It's a massive flip from where we were during much of October so the process is choppy. The initial push of cold is right down the east slopes of the rockies under a pretty broad conus trough. That's not how our area ends up coldest relative to normal compared to regions further west. Ensembles are pretty unanimous in spiking a ridge in the west up through Canada down the road a piece. This would shift the axis further east and also the coldest anoms. This could become somewhat stable for a period and if snow is going to fall from the sky, the d9+ period looks better than inside of the next week. Really stout anomalous patterns during winter become persistent more often than not. Doesn't mean no breaks or anything, just a tendency to repeat/reload over a longer period of time. If I had to guess, we'll see something similar during a portion of December. Relaxation may come in the form of a -pna for a time but I don't think it will mean losing higher heights over the pole. Ensembles through 15 days show it locked in and the latest weeklies keep the look through early Dec. It's reasonable to expect ebbs and flows but not losing it all together for a month or more. If we have a crappy period in Dec my guess is it will be short lived. Like 1-2 weeks tops. Of course this post will be quite bumpworthy if it all goes to hell in Dec. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I see this pattern as a great sign of what winter may want to offer. It's a massive flip from where we were during much of October so the process is choppy. The initial push of cold is right down the east slopes of the rockies under a pretty broad conus trough. That's not how our area ends up coldest relative to normal compared to regions further west. Ensembles are pretty unanimous in spiking a ridge in the west up through Canada down the road a piece. This would shift the axis further east and also the coldest anoms. This could become somewhat stable for a period and if snow is going to fall from the sky, the d9+ period looks better than inside of the next week. Really stout anomalous patterns during winter become persistent more often than not. Doesn't mean no breaks or anything, just a tendency to repeat/reload over a longer period of time. If I had to guess, we'll see something similar during a portion of December. Relaxation may come in the form of a -pna for a time but I don't think it will mean losing higher heights over the pole. Ensembles through 15 days show it locked in and the latest weeklies keep the look through early Dec. It's reasonable to expect ebbs and flows but not losing it all together for a month or more. If we have a crappy period in Dec my guess is it will be short lived. Like 1-2 weeks tops. Of course this post will be quite bumpworthy if it all goes to hell in Dec. LOL. and the cold air won't have much of a chance to modify based on this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 and the cold air won't have much of a chance to modify based on this map ...and that's going to fill in even more over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 ...and that's going to fill in even more over the next several days. yeppers....instead of hoping things will change over the next 30 days like most mid-Novies, I'm sitting here thinking "careful what you wish for" because now that we seemingly have it all, wtf is going to go wrong and wreck it all for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Heh, I was just looking at euro ensemble mean precip totals for d10-15. Our area is around .80 on the means which is pretty wet for that late in the run. Best of all, the swath runs straight from the deep south and up the tn valley/coastal plain. Ind member low location plots have a ton of lows moving out of that area so the members are seeing something. There is even a coastal signal d12. But that's way out in time and there are plenty of tracks west of us so only a period of casual interest. One thing seems certain, the pattern over the next couple of weeks looks to be pretty stormy with a possible wet gulf coast/deep south starting in a week. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Heh, I was just looking at euro ensemble mean precip totals for d10-15. Our area is around .80 on the means which is pretty wet for that late in the run. Best of all, the swath runs straight from the deep south and up the tn valley/coastal plain. Ind member low location plots have a ton of lows moving out of that area so the members are seeing something. There is even a coastal signal d12. But that's way out in time and there are plenty of tracks west of us so only a period of casual interest. One thing seems certain, the pattern over the next couple of weeks looks to be pretty stormy with a possible wet gulf coast/deep south starting in a week. . Looks wet and cold... now it's just about getting the two at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 12z GFS has some signals for a coastal Day 6-7 (but its likely rain for us) and overrunning event possible (I think that is what it is Day 14) out there in la la land... hr 348 would be very nice since the high is in a great place for CAD End of the run shows another coastal... but its rain. Overall, this run of the GFS was very nice IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Also off in la-la land, but a few days closer... the 12z GFS parallel run tries for a big storm Day 10-11... but its rain. Just another run suggesting potential is there for some flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The combination -WPO, -EPO transpacific ridge into the PNA is just glorious in 5+ days. It's the kind of thing you find before great triple phasers like 1993. But, the NAO is not exactly classic which gives the PV the ability to scramble quickly back to normal latitudes. So unless the s/w action is timed to amplify underneath the PV, they'll have room to amplify/phase for interior tracks. Definitely a pattern that brings the first flakes of the year to many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The combination -WPO, -EPO transpacific ridge into the PNA is just glorious in 5+ days. It's the kind of thing you find before great triple phasers like 1993. But, the NAO is not exactly classic which gives the PV the ability to scramble quickly back to normal latitudes. So unless the s/w action is timed to amplify underneath the PV, they'll have room to amplify/phase for interior tracks. Definitely a pattern that brings the first flakes of the year to many! Did someone say triple phaser? Mmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Also off in la-la land, but a few days closer... the 12z GFS parallel run tries for a big storm Day 10-11... but its rain. Just another run suggesting potential is there for some flakes Doesn't the GFS2 end @ 240? The wave moving up the tn valley d10 looked decent and confluence above us looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Also off in la-la land, but a few days closer... the 12z GFS parallel run tries for a big storm Day 10-11... but its rain. Just another run suggesting potential is there for some flakes Possible MA special shows up at the very end of the run.. Day 14-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Doesn't the GFS2 end @ 240? The wave moving up the tn valley d10 looked decent and confluence above us looks good. I am using it in the AMWX model page... goes to 384. Its titled GFS upgrade I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Did someone say triple phaser? Mmmmm... lol...I usually do about 5 times per amwx visit...but they never happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 FYI.. DT making reference to 3 events in next 2 weeks. 2 inland storms. and one in the longer term that seems to show more potential... just what is being kicked around here.. will see what he says later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Doesn't the GFS2 end @ 240? The wave moving up the tn valley d10 looked decent and confluence above us looks good. No. mageval.ncep.noaa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 lol...I usually do about 5 times per amwx visit...but they never happen. only the early March ones happen right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Euro say anything about our SnowTV chances on Friday? Nope. Dry as a bone. It rescheduled for sunday though. ETA: I take that back. SnowTV could be possible Friday and a rerun sunday. .05 early friday morning with temps in the mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 Nope. Dry as a bone. It rescheduled for sunday though. ETA: I take that back. SnowTV could be possible Friday and a rerun sunday. .05 early friday morning with temps in the mid 30's. Not sure why we would completely toss the Sunday system yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Not quite the icebox... but hr 216 on the 12z EURO clearly delineates where the 0c 850 line is; which is right through VA/NC border... IAD/BWI/DCA all -10c/-11c 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Not sure why we would completely toss the Sunday system yet. I don't think anyone has tossed it. It's pretty marginal temp wise but snow could fall from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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