yoda Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 12z EURO is an absolute icebox at the end of the run... -17c 850s for our area at 240 hrs... large arctic high nosing into Northern Plains at 1049/1050mb... don't see any precip around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 12z EURO is an absolute icebox at the end of the run... -17c 850s for our area at 240 hrs... large arctic high nosing into Northern Plains at 1049mb I was just going to say I'm surprised no one commented on the EURO. Weenie-est run yet. Snow showers on the 14th, and 3-5" of snow on the 17th-18th. Then the freezer... It shows a low of 12F in Baltimore City on the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 I was just going to say I'm surprised no one commented on the EURO. Weenie-est run yet. Snow showers on the 14th, and 3-5" of snow on the 17th-18th. Then the freezer... It shows a low of 12F in Baltimore City on the 19th. the map at the post below is from the NE forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44761-november-discussion/?p=3117714 even though you can't see SE of PHL (or a bit north of it actually), it still suggests accumulating snow for us so 3-5" sounds reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Mitch, our area never gets below freezing the entire time precip falls. Mid to upper 30's and some low 40's. Even 850's are above until the end. The flawed algorithm is obvious. The reality of the run is cold rain flipping to mangled wet snow at the end except maybe for far NW burbs. The snow map showing widespread 2-4" here is laughable at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Slight hint of blocking and -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Mitch, our area never gets below freezing the entire time precip falls. Mid to upper 30's and some low 40's. Even 850's are above until the end. The flawed algorithm is obvious. The reality of the run is cold rain flipping to mangled wet snow at the end except maybe for far NW burbs. The snow map showing widespread 2-4" here is laughable at best. yesterday and last night it was a cutter.....baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 yesterday and last night it was a cutter.....baby steps AND its a full week out . Looking at day 7-8 snow maps is a bit silly though, esp in November. It is hard to go against climo in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 yesterday and last night it was a cutter.....baby steps No argument there. Any track underneath us keeps it interesting but Wxbell 12z snow maps were a terrible representation of the actual model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 No argument there. Any track underneath us keeps it interesting but Wxbell 12z snow maps were a terrible representation of the actual model run. Honestly, I've seen worse WxBell snow maps. 850s go below at panel 204, and then the heaviest precip. comes in at panel 210. By then surface temps are 33-35, so accumulation isn't that great. Total precip. is about .5", so 2-3" of snowfall isn't too unreasonable. While accumulation is incredibly difficult with that sfc, it's obviously not impossible. Not that any of this matters lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 If we can turn the lp north of the lakes into a hp it would make a big difference in the mid levels. That's the big fly in the ointment. We need a cold press and not a warm vacuum in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 No argument there. Any track underneath us keeps it interesting but Wxbell 12z snow maps were a terrible representation of the actual model run. personally, I think JB has been using that snow algorithm for years it sure would explain the inevitable debacle of being on the southern edge of his snowfall maps countless times over the years lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 If we can turn the lp north of the lakes into a hp it would make a big difference in the mid levels. That's the big fly in the ointment. We need a cold press and not a warm vacuum in that area. we just hope for it to weaken come Day 8 vs. model run(s) otoh, I do recall some modeled lp in the Lakes region before one of our decent snows in 09/10 that changed as we got closer...I wanna' say 12/19 but I could be wrong.....or dreaming it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 If only 384 HR GFS was right lol. Has a thanksgiving superbomb 975 mb low with heavy snow. If only. If only lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 If only 384 HR GFS was right lol. Has a thanksgiving superbomb 975 mb low with heavy snow. If only. If only lol Holy ****! Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 we just hope for it to weaken come Day 8 vs. model run(s) otoh, I do recall some modeled lp in the Lakes region before one of our decent snows in 09/10 that changed as we got closer...I wanna' say 12/19 but I could be wrong.....or dreaming it! Not sure about 09-10 but yea, there are no guarantees that either lp will exist at this lead. Imho- the best case scenario is a slider and ots with us on the fringe of the best precip. Anything wrapped up is going to screw up the mid levels being so early. No matter which way you shake it, it's a low prob event...but not "impossible" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 If only 384 HR GFS was right lol. Has a thanksgiving superbomb 975 mb low with heavy snow. If only. If only lol that's a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Not sure about 09-10 but yea, there are no guarantees that either lp will exist at this lead. Imho- the best case scenario is a slider and ots with us on the fringe of the best precip. Anything wrapped up is going to screw up the mid levels being so early. No matter which way you shake it, it's a low prob event...but not "impossible" agree 100% either way, it's good practice.....we can always use more of that around here, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Not sure about 09-10 but yea, there are no guarantees that either lp will exist at this lead. Imho- the best case scenario is a slider and ots with us on the fringe of the best precip. Anything wrapped up is going to screw up the mid levels being so early. No matter which way you shake it, it's a low prob event...but not "impossible" This. Best chance for snow is a weak low riding a front to our south. In the best case in a big low, we might get some front end slop before the inevitable changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 that's a rainstorm You have to keep in mind that he's 50 miles west of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 You have to keep in mind that he's 50 miles west of Philly. I know, and it's rain for him too (mix at first for him I suppose, but mostly not snow) you have to get to ABE or Wilkes Barre to get all snow verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 If only 384 HR GFS was right lol. Has a thanksgiving superbomb 975 mb low with heavy snow. If only. If only lol Taking the pattern into consideration, it maybe hard for IAD and BWI to make it out of November without at least one 2"+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 All I have to say is that whether the GFS is right or wrong with the details at this range, I just want all these coastals to, in fact, happen. The last time we had parades of Lows up the coast that were close to snow for I95, or even a mix, this early in the season was 11/95. I think I speak for everyone when I say we'd all run with that analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Snow talk aside, could you see the modeled cold coming in less impressive than a lot of us are thinking it will be? If nothing else, it is impressive to me for its duration. Big departures that make it a late December/early January day would really be something. I think that's certainly possible. I think it's a pretty safe bet to say the next 2 weeks will be well-below normal temp-wise, but we'll probably sneak in a couple seasonable or warm days ahead of a cutter or something like that. I'd like to see a record low max or record low set and/or a couple days with sub-40 highs and lows near 20F. I think that's certainly possible outside the UHIs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 I think that's certainly possible. I think it's a pretty safe bet to say the next 2 weeks will be well-below normal temp-wise, but we'll probably sneak in a couple seasonable or warm days ahead of a cutter or something like that. I'd like to see a record low max or record low set and/or a couple days with sub-40 highs and lows near 20F. I think that's certainly possible outside the UHIs. Yea, agree there. The really big departure days will be limited. It's much easier for areas in the middle of the country without a near 60 degree ocean within a 2-3 hour drive. The funny thing is I could easily see highs in the upper 30's with cold rain. Sunny....notsomuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 This. Best chance for snow is a weak low riding a front to our south. In the best case in a big low, we might get some front end slop before the inevitable changeover. Several gfs members have a version of this for thur/fri. I'm more encouraged for the chance of flurries/showers than I was earlier. Sun/mon is still out there a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The funny thing is I could easily see highs in the upper 30's with cold rain. Sunny....notsomuch Hard to do in the cities, but I think a sunny U30's day is possible in the 'burbs. November sun angle is pretty lousy and this is a true arctic airmass that's progged. Not to mention with the snow in the next week over the northern tier of the CONUS, the air won't modify too much before it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 5 days out the ensembles are still more useful than the op runs? (I always forget smh) Yes. Up until about 3 days the ensemble mean wins. But remember caveats that the GEFS lower resolution tends to spread out precip more than reality. I'm curious what the GEFS resolution will be once the GFS-13km becomes the real GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Hard to do in the cities, but I think a sunny U30's day is possible in the 'burbs. November sun angle is pretty lousy and this is a true arctic airmass that's progged. Not to mention with the snow in the next week over the northern tier of the CONUS, the air won't modify too much before it gets here. Would be cool or should I say cold if nearby burbs hit the teens for lows. Highs in the upper 30's would get to the mid 20's before midnight if the dews are super low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 One thing i've noticed about the para gfs is that it looks much closer to the euro in the med range. I have a hunch the upgrade is going to be a decent net positive inside of 5-6 days. Verification scores will likely step up a notch imo. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 When does the para GFS take full effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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