WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Per Ian's suggestion....Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 12z Euro ens is ridiculously stable d10-15. I haven't seen 10 twelve hour panels at that range look so similar maybe ever. If this winter looks like that on the means the bay is going to freeze again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 last night's Canadian ensembles continue to get colder too http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 last night's Canadian ensembles continue to get colder too http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html I was thinking this when I posted but failed to mention, that map includes the well AN temps of today and tomorrow, so you know some decent BN stuff is on its way to get us that far below normal for the 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Seems from reading all of the posts that we have a pretty legit cold period coming. I have to confess I haven't gotten into model watching much thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Sweet thread! Was only a day or so after I asked for it! one thing I am looking at is the long range for an outdoor laser tag Birthday for my son. Could it be in the snow or the arctic tundra? Seem possible. My hope is that we get a relaxation around that date and then a resurgence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Seems from reading all of the posts that we have a pretty legit cold period coming. I have to confess I haven't gotten into model watching much thus far. Pretty awesome flip from the mild Sept/oct pattern coming up. Climo lolz at snow for the next month but it's prob one of the best Nov patterns we've seen in a long time to squeeze in an anomaly. Your yard in particular. Can't wait for the pics when my yard is wet and dreary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Pretty awesome flip from the mild Sept/oct pattern coming up. Climo lolz at snow for the next month but it's prob one of the best Nov patterns we've seen in a long time to squeeze in an anomaly. Your yard in particular. Can't wait for the pics when my yard is wet and dreary I have mixed feelings about this for the reasons you point out. We can get snow this early but to what end? To see it gone the next day? I'd prefer the mild weather last another 14 days. By turkey day we can all do snow and do it right. Of course by the first of Dec it's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I have mixed feelings about this for the reasons you point out. We can get snow this early but to what end? To see it gone the next day? I'd prefer the mild weather last another 14 days. By turkey day we can all do snow and do it right. Of course by the first of Dec it's game on. I'm leaning towards this particular flip being a harbinger of what's to come vs wasting good in bad climo. At least in the temp dept. Snow is tricky at 3 day leads let alone 3 weeks or months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I have mixed feelings about this for the reasons you point out. We can get snow this early but to what end? To see it gone the next day? Agreed.. unless it's going to last at least 36 hours I say bag it. It's not like we don't have hundreds of chances for snow in any given winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Agreed.. unless it's going to last at least 36 hours I say bag it. It's not like we don't have hundreds of chances for snow in any given winter. Good to see you back here. You always make me laugh. You know what I mean. Because we don't get many chances, I'd rather they come Dec-early Feb. Of course, we have no control over any of it. So... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 I'm leaning towards this particular flip being a harbinger of what's to come vs wasting good in bad climo. At least in the temp dept. Snow is tricky at 3 day leads let alone 3 weeks or months Might just be me getting old, but I enjoyed today a lot more than I did Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Great trend. As far as the pattern goes. It looks amazing. Really interesting how it setting up as well. It makes me remember why I love weather so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Nice...(Ryan Maue tweet FYI) https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/529890279969398785 ECMWF 00z carbon copy of GFS T1534 upgrade: Days 5-10 Arctic blast just brutal for November. Winter too early! WMO: Maps are posted to his twitter feed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I have mixed feelings about this for the reasons you point out. We can get snow this early but to what end? To see it gone the next day? I'd prefer the mild weather last another 14 days. By turkey day we can all do snow and do it right. Of course by the first of Dec it's game on. I don't think any snow around this time would be gone the next day unless it got really warm. In terms of sun angle its better than anything in March and most of February. As far as actually getting snow I have no idea, but IMHO it would actually be more extreme in the long term if we do NOT get any accumulating snow this month, as it would be the longest period ever without any accumulating snow in Nov. (at least for BWI)... mean reversion and all that. We were about to break the record for consecutive March snow drought, and then 2013/2014 happened, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 You never pass up snow around here regardless of the time of year. Why? Because you never know when it's going to snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 I don't think any snow around this time would be gone the next day unless it got really warm. In terms of sun angle its better than anything in March and most of February. As far as actually getting snow I have no idea, but IMHO it would actually be more extreme in the long term if we do NOT get any accumulating snow this month, as it would be the longest period ever without any accumulating snow in Nov. (at least for BWI)... mean reversion and all that. We were about to break the record for consecutive March snow drought, and then 2013/2014 happened, so... Well, one thing to remember.........on Nov. 5 you have extremely warm ground temps. Those don't cool until December usually. The Oct 29 snow of 2011 put down 6" of snow at my house. It was gone, completely by the next afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Nice...(Ryan Maue tweet FYI) https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/529890279969398785 Maps are posted to his twitter feed Is there more than one map? Am I only seeing one because I don't have a twitter account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I was in Lebanon, VA on Monday afternoon. There was still good snow cover from the system over the weekend, especially in elevated areas where more obviously fell. Air temps were in the 50s but the snow on the ground was holding very tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 meh...cold and dry sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 meh...cold and dry sucks It's ok, the 12Z GFS ends with warm and wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 meh...cold and dry sucks It sure does. And looking at the GFS ens members........at 216 hrs, of the ones I can see, not a single one has precip in our area and every one is cold. Not jumping up and down over that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 It's ok, the 12Z GFS ends with warm and wet... It does? For whom? Juneau? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 18z GFS with a Nor'easter Day 9, just a little too far east for major impact. Virginia/NC gets a sizable event. It's the 18z though, I expect it will either be gone on 0z or a Apps Runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Well, one thing to remember.........on Nov. 5 you have extremely warm ground temps. Those don't cool until December usually. The Oct 29 snow of 2011 put down 6" of snow at my house. It was gone, completely by the next afternoon. At least we have one less hour of sunlight as of Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 At least we have one less hour of sunlight as of Sunday Cool how we shorten the day by a whole hour in just one night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 So what is it gonna take to get some precip when it gets colder? Something like last year I would imagine. A wave to show up along the boundary. I see fantasy land Euro has something (or 2) that are small events, but they are WAYYYYYY OUT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Snow before Thanksgiving? That would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 So what is it gonna take to get some precip when it gets colder? Something like last year I would imagine. A wave to show up along the boundary. I see fantasy land Euro has something (or 2) that are small events, but they are WAYYYYYY OUT! just sayin' http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44761-november-discussion/?p=3112878 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 just sayin' http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44761-november-discussion/?p=3112878 Day 10 Euro has been like the Day 1 NAM the last couple years. That said, I said a week ago that I had a gut feeling that many of us outside the cities would see a little accumulation this month and the way the pattern looks mid-late next week, I think that has a decent chance to verify. I think more likely that means some overnight light SHSN that gives folks a dusting then a broad area of 1-3" or 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.