WeatherFox Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Nice looking weather map by the European model at a week out. Rain, wind Nor'Easter for NYC but another possible snowstorm up in Maine. From today's NWS NYC discussion: THE NEXT MORE AMPLIFIED S/WV IS PROGGED TO COME IN FROM LTR SUN INTO MON. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULDOCCUR E OF OUR FCST AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE`S ENUFUNCERTAINTY FOR CHC POPS AREA-WIDE. IN GENERAL...THERMAL PROFILESSUPPORT RAIN WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SHOT OF PCPN...THEN A-SHRA/-SHSN MIX IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE PCPN AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The ridge is further West this time but the whole pattern in general is less amplified. I spoke about this potential a few days ago but it's very reliant on the energy ejecting out of the southwest in time to phase with the shortwave dropping through the lakes. Right now the general concensus is that things come together just a hair too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 The ridge is further West this time but the whole pattern in general is less amplified. I spoke about this potential a few days ago but it's very reliant on the energy ejecting out of the southwest in time to phase with the shortwave dropping through the lakes. Right now the general concensus is that things come together just a hair too late for us. NWS NYC afternoon discussion: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- TWO POTENTIAL STORMS IN THE LONG TERM... Normally I don't get involved in"long" term forecasts. But here we have back to back Nor'easter opportunities some rain, wind & a snow flurry. I think it is to early for a snowstorm in NYC but it will be interesting to watch the models & connecting the dots to forecast what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 702 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDSIN MAINTAINING A MEAN TROF ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...ANDRIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. DURING THIS TIME...BOTH THE PNA ANDNAO ARE FORECAST TO BE POSITIVE. THIS SUPPORTS A PROGRESSIVE...YETAMPLIFIED FLOW WITH FLEETING COLD AIR MASSES. STORM DEVELOPMENT ANDLOW TRACK LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME TO SPARETHE REGION ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. Now hedging away from the potential for the second one. The first one survives for rain and wind. So now you see why I shy away from long range forecasts as their predictability is so challenging. Each model run can show another scenario (solution) and its not within 24 hours that forecaster confidence of a winter type weather event is more or less solid. And even a solidly confident forecast has the potential to bust due to a myriad of factors. Thus the joys and tribulations of weather forecasting. The public demands and has become accustomed to long range forecasts so we need to provide them. They just need to understand and be educated that the state of weather forecasting while much improved over the years is still an inexact science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY345 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014 ...A WEAK FRONT PASSES ON SUN. SOME SPOTTY LGT RAIN POSSIBLE. THE STORM THE MODELS HAD ADVERTISED IS STILL WAY OUT TO SEA AND NOTPARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THIS FEATUREHOWEVER AS WE ARE AT THE STAGE WHERE A SYS CAN DROP OUT ONLY TOREAPPEAR A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT OCCURS. A learning lesson . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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